For Part 2 of the College Football Overview we'll take a look at the favorite conference of the Sax Man, Ellis, Rock and Mrs Bruce - the ACC
The ACC had 42 players drafted in the 2014 NFL draft and then did even better in 2015 with 47 players drafted. Florida State and Louisville led all schools with 11 and 10 players drafted respectively.
The ACC also had the best record in the New Years and and BCS bowls over the last three years and best record among the Power 5 conferences in the new Years Six and College Football playoff games since 2012. So much for that SEC dominance.
To recap - here are the Over/Under Win totals for 2015 and a comparison to last years regular season win
The ACC had 42 players drafted in the 2014 NFL draft and then did even better in 2015 with 47 players drafted. Florida State and Louisville led all schools with 11 and 10 players drafted respectively.
The ACC also had the best record in the New Years and and BCS bowls over the last three years and best record among the Power 5 conferences in the new Years Six and College Football playoff games since 2012. So much for that SEC dominance.
To recap - here are the Over/Under Win totals for 2015 and a comparison to last years regular season win
Old time smash mouth football. That's what they were playing last year in Chestnut Hill. Boston College is one of only three schools nationally that finished in the top 15 in the nation in both rushing offense and rushing defense last season, (Oklahoma and Toledo). That distinction is going to be tough to repeat, though, as the Eagles lost record-setting QB Tyler Murphy and all five of his OL. They also lose 3 of their 4 starting DB’s from the nation’s 11th ranked defense last year. It's a complete revamp for the Eagles. So where are the 6 wins to get the over? BC starts with 2 win hosting Maine and Howard. After that there are two more easy wins - Wake Forest and Syracuse. They will need to get by Northern Illinois (not a tough out), Duke, Va Tech or NC State. Or else upset Florida State, Notre Dame (at Fenway Park - nice), Louisville or Clemson. I like Adazzio. He is an old school, roll up your sleeves, run and stop the run coach. I'm going to take a flyer and count on the four layups, a home win over Va Tech and an upset and take the OVER |
The big story line for the Tigers in 2015 is the departure of OC Chad Morris to SMU – and the loss of eight starters (including LB Vic Beasley Rd 1 Atlanta and LB Stephone Anthony Rd 1 New Orleans ) from last year’s #1 ranked defense. Oh and the loss of three starting OL from a unit that allowed just 27 sacks. Clemson is in the midst of its first run of four straight 10-win seasons in a quarter-century. They are going to need the help mercurial QB Deshaun Watson to keep that streak going. Watson returns after playing in just eight games last year. If he wants to replace Jameis Winston as the top play caller in the ACC and then he needs to stay off the injury report. This will come down to how fast the defense reloads and whether Watson stays on the field. Is there four losses on the schedule? Two cupcakes are there to while Dabo gets a feel for his defense (Wofford and App State) To get the under the Tigers would have to lose to Fla State, Louisville, Ga Tech and South Carlonia. Upsets at BC and Miami (FL) are possible too. I'll predict an injury to Watson and take the UNDER |
The good times continue to roll in Durham. A lot of firsts have happened at Duke under head coach David Cutcliffe, including winning nine or more games in consecutive seasons, and playing in three straight bowls game for the first time in school history. In his seven seasons, Cutcliffe has guided Duke to 40 victories – 30 more than the Blue Devils totaled in the previous eight years. Cutcliffe also owns an added edge having mentored two Super Bowl winning QB’s – the Mannings, Peyton at Tennessee and Eli at Ole Miss. Now, Cutcliffe has to use his magic in replacing QB Anthony Boone (UDFA Lions) and his top two WRs in Jamison Crowder (Rd 4 Washinton) and (Issac Blackeney (UDFA 49ers). The fear is that Duke will go the way of Wake Forest. The Demon deacons, a school known best for its basketball teams, won 28 games in the three-year span from 2006-08. But they haven’t had a winning season since, a reality not lost on the Blue Devils. To get back bowling, not only will Cutclife have to get new QB Anthony Sirk playing with the best in the ACC, they will also need to drastically improve the defensive line. Last year the Blue Devils were 13th in rush defense in the ACC. Not a place you want to be with Ga Tech and BC in the schedule. And I don't see 7 wins on the schedule. 4 with Tulane, NC Central, Army (watch out DL!) and Wake but not much after that. I'll go with the UNDER |
Losing eight starters, including the Heisman Trophy winning QB (Jameis Winston 1st overall Tampa Bay), would be devastating for most squads. Not to mention the most picks (11) of all teams in this year’s NFL Draft. The Seminoles, however, simply reload. The Seminoles last three QBs have gone in the first round of the NFL Jimbo Fisher has won 58 games in his first five years as a head coach – including 24 consecutive ACC games – and leads the nation in wins-per-season (11.60). Meanwhile, RB Dalvin Cook rushed for a freshman record 1,008 yards in 2014. And with the announcement of former Notre Dame QB Everett Golson transferring to FSU (eligible to play this season), the beat goes on in Tallahassee. Line play is going to be a concern. FSU lost four OL and 2 DL on lines that underperformed. To help with the DL, FSU hired former Spartan Asst Brad Lawing. Are there 3 losses on the schedule? If there are, they will come from amongst Ga Tech, Louisville, Clemson and Florida. Too much talent but a high bar I'll PASS |
Last year at this time Paul Johnson was starting to feel the heat. His record was excellent but things seemed to be tailing off Paul Johnson. In his 18 years as a head coach, Johnson has led his teams to either Div 1AA playoffs or Div 1A bowl games 17 times. In seven seasons at Georgia Tech, Johnson has produced thirteen 1,000-yard rushers. It’s no coincidence that Johnson is 73-19 in games where his team rushes for 300 or more yards. But after winning the ACC in 2009, Tech had gone 28-25. Were the good times over for good? Nope - Last year, Tech burst back onto the football landscape due the the accession of QB Justin Thomas. Thomas was the epitome of a Johnson-led point guard, deftly distributing the ball and making his own magic, in and out of the pocket. And when Georgia Tech is set under center, expectations run justifiably high. Now he has a defense to go with his run, run and then run again offense. Second-year DC Ted Roof saw the Jackets’ defense create a turnover on 26% of opponent possessions – best in the FBS. The coaches return seven starters on each side of the ball so the team is ready to kick into a higher gear. There are only four tough games on the schedule @ Notre Dame, @ Clemson, and home games against FSU and Georgia. This is a very easy OVER |
That started out nicely. HC Bobby Petrino returned to Louisville, took them into the ACC and prmptly went 9-4. Now, can he do an encore? A school-record record 10 players were selected in this year’s NFL Draft, including star WR DeVante Parker (Rd 1 Dolphins). The offense will be a question mark as Petrino has to decide between 4 experienced QBs. And it needs to hang on to the ball better. The Cards ranked 116th in coughing it up. The defense could be real nasty as former JUCO and TCU linebacker gets yet another seconds chance in Louisville. If he gets his head together watch out. The schedule is navigable with FSU and Clemson the only real headaches. I say Petrino gets the offense rolling and gets the OVER |
Seven picks in this year’s NFL Draft from a Hurricanes team that went 6-7 pretty much sums up the discontent in Miami these days regarding HC Al Golden. Now, after facing the nation’s ninth- toughest schedule in 2014, the Canes will take on the third-toughest to-do list in the land including nine teams that went bowling last year. Emerging star QB Brad Kayaa returns but he will be without RB Duke Johnson (Rd 3 Cleveland), TE Clive Walford (Rd 3 Oakland), WR Phillip Dorsett (Rd 1 Colts) and LT Ereck Flowers (Rd 1 Giants). The schedule is weghted more towards the strong (FSU, Nebraska, Cincy, and Ga Tech) versus the weak (Bethune Cookman, Fla Atl) On talent alone, the canes should be expected to win 8 -9 games. But its handicapped down due to Golden. 6 sounds about right I'll PASS |
It was a disappointing year for Ellis and the Tar Heel fans. They went 6-6 and then fell to Dobby's Rutgers team in NC's back yards - the Belk Bowl. That makes their record 13-13 over the last two years. The offense was fine finishing 28th in passing and 39th in points scored. It was the defense that was a huge disappointment ending up 119th in points allowed. To fix the defense, the Heels hired former Auburn HC Gene Chizik. Chizik is jettisoning the bandit concepts for a good ol fashioned 4-3. The offense hopes to get more playm makers to help QB Marquise Williams. They don't want Williams leading the team in rushing for a 3rd straight year. Vegas likes the Chizik hire as they upped the line to 8 games. The schedule features two SEC teams in South Carolina and Georgia. After that there's not much to worry about in ACC play. If Ellis keeps setting me up with some Red Breast I'll take the OVER |
QB Jacoby Brissett led about as well-balanced an offense (2,659 yards on the ground and 2,652 through the air) as you’ll find. Brissett also led the nation in ‘Interception Avoidance’ last year with only five picks in 370 pass attempts – the best record in the ACC since Russell Wilson in 2008. As a result, NCSU appears to have turned the corner behind Dave Doeren’s rebuilding effort. They improved across the board on both sides of the ball in 2014 and with Brissett leading the charge in 2015 behind 14 returning starters, the Pack looks to be back and in good hands. The NC State offense has a chance to be special. The defense, however, could be a liability. The Pack lost all four games with ranked opponents by double-digits in 2014, with the D being the most glaring culprit. Against Florida State, Clemson, BC, Louisville and Georgia Tech, State yielded an average of 42 points. And in those losses, it got exposed on third downs, allowing nearly two-thirds to be converted. Its a veritable Bakers Bonanza of cupcakes on the WolfPack schedule including Troy, eastern Kentucky, Old Dominion and South Alabama to start the year. Syracuse and Wake Forest are the schedule too. Of they get by BC and or Va Tech they will get the OVER |
Pat Narduzzi, whose devastating defenses at Michigan State ranked in the nation’s Top 10 in total and rushing defense from 2011 thru 2014, is the new man in Steel City. “What we did there, we will do here,” insists the tough-as-nails Narduzzi. He then brought in DC Josh Conklin from FIU, architect of the nation's 4th-best red zone 'D' last season. On offense, RB James Conner (1,765 yards and ACC recird 26 TDs) and WR Tyler Boyd are two of the best players in the country at their positions. And QB Chad Voytik has a bright future. The defense has a lot of work to do The Panthers finished 118th nationally in tackles for loss and 103rd in sacks, Narduzzi and Conklin plan to turn up the heat when it’s prudent. Conklin is teaching his kids to swarm to the ball, with outside linebackers—and siblings—Nicholas Grigsby and Bam Bradley earning a license to roam with more freedom than in recent years. The schedule starts out with three expected wins, Youngstown State, Akron and Iowa. They should be favored against Virginia and Syracuse too. Narduzzi has already begun to put his no-nonsense, tough-as-nails stamp on the program, the one he helped to brand at Michigan State. With six losses last year by just 29 combined points Narduzzi will find a way to squeeze out 1-2 two more wins OVER |
Despite ranking 27th in overall team ‘D’, debilitating injuries doomed the Orange to a 3-9 mark last season, including 1-7 in the ACC. The good news is dual-threat QB Terrel Hunt returns after missing the final seven games with a broken fibula. He needs to stay healthy since the Orange don't have the talent to survive injuries. On defense, DC and former MSU asst Chuck Bullough has to replace 8 starters including the teams top 5 tacklers. The Orange open the campaign with four straight home games, the first three of which are winnable - Rhode Island, Wake Forest and Central Michigan. But can they get a fourth and fifth win? It’s a rocky road after the operners as four of the next five games are away, with Pittsburgh sandwiched at home in between. And the final six games are all against 2014 bowl teams. So the question is can Syracuse muster up enough early wins and steal a few late ones to get a bowl bid? I'll say no and take the UNDER |
Mike London went from 2-10 to 5-7 and yet the heat is still on Charlottesville. Behind DC (from Ga Tech) Jon Tenuta, the Cavaliers’ defense improved leaps and bounds in 2014, to the point that five of last year’s losses were by 8 or less points – against a schedule that saw 10 opponents go bowling. Incredibly, UVA will go up against 10 more foes this season that went bowling again this year. London’s top priority—again—will be to light a fire under a weak offense. The Hoos finished 100th in rushing offense and 88th in points scored. If Virginia can't muster a running game the defense will be on the field far too long. Is there 5 wins on the schedule? The first four game include UCLA, Notre Dame and Boise State. With an improved Pitt, Ga Tech, Miami (FL), Louisville, Duke and Va Tech to round out the season I don't see it UNDER |
What is going on in Blacksburg? After winning 10 or more games every year from 2004-2011, the Hokies have gone just 22-17 since. They went 7-6 last year. The second time in three years. Included in the bad report card is a losing record in conference play for the first time since 2002, and a team that was the worst in the nation in blocked punts allowed (4) in 2014. That doesn't sound like Beamer Ball to me. DC Bud Foster has been holding up his end. The Hokies finished 21st in total defense and 14th in points allowed. The culprit, though, has been a stagnant offense, the rushing game finished 89th last year. Now they have to replace three OL who started all 13 games last season. The schedule starts with a revenge matchup for Ohio State in Blacksburg. Should be a dandy. Then there are 3 relativley easy games against Furman, Purdur and a rebuilding East Carolina. The ACC slate has no gimmies until the final game @ Virginia. The road to eight games is tough. I'll take the UNDER |
Wake hasn’t finished with a winning record since 2008 and has been to only one bowl game since. Forced to play an inordinate amount of inexperienced players last year – tied for the third-most underclassmen (74) – it wasn’t until the campaign’s final game that a player who scored for Wake in 2013 managed to score a point for the Deacs in 2014! In fact, freshman QB John Wolford didn’t get to campus until August and then started every game. Even after leaning on plenty of youth in 2014, the Demon Deacons will remain inexperienced on offense. The post-spring depth chart features more freshmen listed as starters, four, than upperclassmen - two. The defense faces the same hurdles. It will be inserting two new cornerbacks into the lineup. To get to four wins the Wake will need to win its first three games against Elon, Syracuse and Army and then hope to get one more. It will take a monumental upset. I'll take the UNDER |