Watson kept the Tide defense on its heels all night Well, my picks on the college games sure ended with a thud this year. I went 2-6 on the Mega Bets for the bowls. And I finished in the bottom quartile in my confidence bowl picks. Awful Awful Awful. Kudos to the Big Flippy who finished 18th out of 126. The Fuss finished above average coming in 45th. I way underestinmated the SEC and went with too many underdogs.
The National Championship game epitomized my suckiness in the Bowls this year.
Alabama -7.0 vs Clemson – I thought Bama would get past the “They can’t handle mobile QBs” mantra. Boy, was I wrong. Deshaun Watson went nuts in the game.
Bama was constantly on their heels. With Watson ripping through the Tide defense, I knew my under 50.5 was in trouble in the first quarter.
Bama started out with a TD on a 50 yard burst by Derrick Henry. I was patting myself on the back. See, just as I predicted, Clemson would let up explosive plays defending the run. I was cock sure this game was going exactly as I predicted.
Then Watson took off. Clemson scored TDs on their next two drives. It was 14-7 and the 1st quarter. Bye bye under - and covering the 7.0 spread wasn't looking too good either.
Bama tightened up the defense through the rest of the first half though. Midway through the 2nd quarter they picked off Watson and then drove it 42 yards for the tying TD. OK, maybe I’ll get one of the two Mega Bets right. Clemson was running up and down the field too much for me to feel good about the under but covering the 7 was still possible.
Clemson continued to drive the Bama defense nuts in the third quarter, however, and it was ahead 24-21 after 3.
Then the fun started. Bama opened up the 4th quarter with a tying FG. Special teams coach Bobby Williams (you remember ‘ol BW right?) calls for the onside kick. It was one of the best I have ever seen.
The National Championship game epitomized my suckiness in the Bowls this year.
Alabama -7.0 vs Clemson – I thought Bama would get past the “They can’t handle mobile QBs” mantra. Boy, was I wrong. Deshaun Watson went nuts in the game.
Bama was constantly on their heels. With Watson ripping through the Tide defense, I knew my under 50.5 was in trouble in the first quarter.
Bama started out with a TD on a 50 yard burst by Derrick Henry. I was patting myself on the back. See, just as I predicted, Clemson would let up explosive plays defending the run. I was cock sure this game was going exactly as I predicted.
Then Watson took off. Clemson scored TDs on their next two drives. It was 14-7 and the 1st quarter. Bye bye under - and covering the 7.0 spread wasn't looking too good either.
Bama tightened up the defense through the rest of the first half though. Midway through the 2nd quarter they picked off Watson and then drove it 42 yards for the tying TD. OK, maybe I’ll get one of the two Mega Bets right. Clemson was running up and down the field too much for me to feel good about the under but covering the 7 was still possible.
Clemson continued to drive the Bama defense nuts in the third quarter, however, and it was ahead 24-21 after 3.
Then the fun started. Bama opened up the 4th quarter with a tying FG. Special teams coach Bobby Williams (you remember ‘ol BW right?) calls for the onside kick. It was one of the best I have ever seen.
Yeah, it's a dynasty - just sucks that it's Bama Amazing!! Perfect 15 yard pooch kick that caught Clemson totally by surprise. The kick looked like he was passing it with his foot to a waiting WR.
Bama drove 45 yards for to go up 31-24. The under was long gone but with that TD maybe the defense can get back some Big Mo and shut down Clemson finally.
No such luck, on the very next possession, Clemson drives to the Bama 20 and gets a FG. Crap.
And while the Tide defense was struggling, the offense was playing fired up. They get a TD on the next drive to go up 38-27. Cover – here we come baby!!
I’m up 11 with 1:07 left to play. Don’t let up the back door cover. Play defense Bama!!
They didn’t. They played loose coverage. They knew that Clemson needed 2 scores so they were content to let Clemson drive as long as they didn’t score quickly.
With 12 seconds left in the game, Clemson gets a meaningless TD and the back door cover.
I was pissed. Everything that could go wrong did. Getting the under was a joke. But, the worst was Bama winning yet not getting the cover.
I could handle losing the cover with Clemson winning. But Bama winning means now we have to hear all that “dynasty” crap (and it is – 4 titles in 7 years is a dynasty) and even worse the SEC rules college football BS
Ugly outcome to what was a great game.
Knile Davis put KC up for good on the opening kickoff In a surprise twist - what doesn't suck are my NFL picks. They were actually superb last weekend. I went 3-0-1 against the spread (and would have won the tie if Cincinnati didn't have an epic melt down) and went 2-0 on the over/unders. Nice
Kansas City -3.0 vs Houston - Nothing like taking the opening kickoff to the house to get a Mega Bet off to a great start.
And, unlike in 2013 when they blew a 28 point lead to the Colts, this time the Chiefs kept the pressure on. They constantly harassed Brian Hoyer forcing him into four picks and a fumble
With Hoyer constantly turning it over it was tough for the Texans to try to make a comeback. Their chances went to zero when, already missing DL Jadeveon Clowney, Houston lost JJ Watts to a groin iunjury in the 3rd quarter.
Kansas City rolled to their 1th straight win 30-0 WIN
Also got a win on the under 39.0 too
Cincinnati +2.0 vs Pittsburgh - Wow, I've seen some classic meltdowns before but this one takes the cake. This was the most vicious hitting, cheap shot game I've seen in a long time. Tempers were flairing, flags were flying...it was like a 70's game. I was in heaven.
By the end, Pittsburgh was down, Big Ben was hobbling and Cincinnati was leading 16-15 with 1:50 to go.
Roethlisberger drops back inside his 20 and PICK!!. Rack it baby!! This game is ovah. All Cincy needs to do is run out the clock and move on.
But then a strange thing happened. Cincinnati became the Bungles again. Cincy fumbles it right back on the very next play. Grooooooan.
Pittsburgh dinks and dunks its way to midfield with 22 seconds left. Then, it really got vicious. Cheapshot artiist Vontaze Burfict delivered a brutal hit to Antonio Brown knocking him out cold.
Kansas City -3.0 vs Houston - Nothing like taking the opening kickoff to the house to get a Mega Bet off to a great start.
And, unlike in 2013 when they blew a 28 point lead to the Colts, this time the Chiefs kept the pressure on. They constantly harassed Brian Hoyer forcing him into four picks and a fumble
With Hoyer constantly turning it over it was tough for the Texans to try to make a comeback. Their chances went to zero when, already missing DL Jadeveon Clowney, Houston lost JJ Watts to a groin iunjury in the 3rd quarter.
Kansas City rolled to their 1th straight win 30-0 WIN
Also got a win on the under 39.0 too
Cincinnati +2.0 vs Pittsburgh - Wow, I've seen some classic meltdowns before but this one takes the cake. This was the most vicious hitting, cheap shot game I've seen in a long time. Tempers were flairing, flags were flying...it was like a 70's game. I was in heaven.
By the end, Pittsburgh was down, Big Ben was hobbling and Cincinnati was leading 16-15 with 1:50 to go.
Roethlisberger drops back inside his 20 and PICK!!. Rack it baby!! This game is ovah. All Cincy needs to do is run out the clock and move on.
But then a strange thing happened. Cincinnati became the Bungles again. Cincy fumbles it right back on the very next play. Grooooooan.
Pittsburgh dinks and dunks its way to midfield with 22 seconds left. Then, it really got vicious. Cheapshot artiist Vontaze Burfict delivered a brutal hit to Antonio Brown knocking him out cold.
Now it really starts getting nuts
Brown's laying there, players and coaches are all over the place jaw jacking each other. Pittsburgh assistant coach Joey Porter, who by rule should not have been on the field, goes over to a bunch of Bengal players huddling up. Adam Jones takes offense and knocks him around. Another flag.
Two 15 yard penalties on the same play put the ball at the Cincy 17. Pittsburgh makes the chip shot FG and wins the game. 18-16 TIE
Lovie Smith lost control of his players at the most crucial moment. Awful.
Brown's laying there, players and coaches are all over the place jaw jacking each other. Pittsburgh assistant coach Joey Porter, who by rule should not have been on the field, goes over to a bunch of Bengal players huddling up. Adam Jones takes offense and knocks him around. Another flag.
Two 15 yard penalties on the same play put the ball at the Cincy 17. Pittsburgh makes the chip shot FG and wins the game. 18-16 TIE
Lovie Smith lost control of his players at the most crucial moment. Awful.
Walsh misses the bunny - not even a doink Minnesota +5.0 vs Seattle - Another last second melt down but this time it didn't matter. I got the cover anyways.
In brutally cold conditions, the defenses dominated. Minnesota took a 9-0 lead on a FG to end the third quarter.
Then the Vikes started to slip.
Seattle answered with 80 yard TD drive to cut the lead to 9-7.
Adrian Petersen fumbles the ball on the next possession setting up a FG for Seattle, The Seahawks now lead for the first time all game 10-9.
It set up a weird ending. Minnesota gets the ball on their 39 just inside the 2 minute warning. They go on a great drive - getting to the Seahawk 9 with 26 seconds to go. What the hell - win the game outright Vikings - knock the defending NFC champs out!
Blair Walsh lines up and does a Doofus duck hook and misses the bunny. Arrrrrgh...Seahawks win 10-9 WIN
Still got the cover and the easy under too.
And if the name Blair Walsh rings a bell - he's the Georiga kicker who missed a FG in OT against State in the Outback Bowl. If he had made it the Dawgs would have won but with a second chance State pulled it out. Guess Walsh is a bit of a choke artist.
In brutally cold conditions, the defenses dominated. Minnesota took a 9-0 lead on a FG to end the third quarter.
Then the Vikes started to slip.
Seattle answered with 80 yard TD drive to cut the lead to 9-7.
Adrian Petersen fumbles the ball on the next possession setting up a FG for Seattle, The Seahawks now lead for the first time all game 10-9.
It set up a weird ending. Minnesota gets the ball on their 39 just inside the 2 minute warning. They go on a great drive - getting to the Seahawk 9 with 26 seconds to go. What the hell - win the game outright Vikings - knock the defending NFC champs out!
Blair Walsh lines up and does a Doofus duck hook and misses the bunny. Arrrrrgh...Seahawks win 10-9 WIN
Still got the cover and the easy under too.
And if the name Blair Walsh rings a bell - he's the Georiga kicker who missed a FG in OT against State in the Outback Bowl. If he had made it the Dawgs would have won but with a second chance State pulled it out. Guess Walsh is a bit of a choke artist.
Heeeee's baaaaaack!! Green Bay +1.0 vs Washington - Uh oh NFC - he's back! After a slow start the old Aaron Rodgers was back and he just torched Washington.
After spotting the Redskins an 11-0 lead Rodgers went nuts. Starting in the second quarter they went TD, FG, TD, TD, TD punt FG. They obliterated Washington and Rodgers had a huge smile on his face the whole time. That same smile he's had in years past. The look that says, play whatever defense you want, you can't stop us - we''re going to score.
I had chills down my spine. He's tortured the Lions with that smile.
The Pack won easily 35-18 WIN
So, I should probably quit while I'm ahead right?
Probably, but that would be no fun
This week I'll press my luck with:
After spotting the Redskins an 11-0 lead Rodgers went nuts. Starting in the second quarter they went TD, FG, TD, TD, TD punt FG. They obliterated Washington and Rodgers had a huge smile on his face the whole time. That same smile he's had in years past. The look that says, play whatever defense you want, you can't stop us - we''re going to score.
I had chills down my spine. He's tortured the Lions with that smile.
The Pack won easily 35-18 WIN
So, I should probably quit while I'm ahead right?
Probably, but that would be no fun
This week I'll press my luck with:
Brady is geeked to have Edelman back New England -5.0 vs Kansas City - The Patriots looked awful at the end of the season. heading into the playoffs they went 2-4 including losses to the Jets and the Dolphins.
The reason for the falter is easy. The offensive line was in shambles. Brady was too busy picking himself of the turf to make any plays.
A week's rest is exactly what the doctor (or trainer) ordered. The OL will get back Sebation Vollmer who was last seen getting carted off the field in an OT loss to the Jets.
WR Julian Edelman will also be available. Brady is geeked to have his top wide out back. Not only is he a threat but it will open lanes for the Gronk. Gronlowski is listed as questionalble but I expect he will tough this one out.
On the other sidelines, Kansas City is riding into Foxboro on an 11 game winning streak. But KC will be without their top WR Jeremy Maclin. KC is pretty limited in the passing attack with dink and dunk QB Alex Smith. Without Maclin the aerial game will be non existant.
The Chiefs will need to rely on running the ball - a tall order since the Pats are 9th against the run.
A Patriots team getting starters back against a Chiefs team losing starters. I'll take the Pats at home
The trends are mixed. New England is 5-0 SU against KC in Foxboro and 2-0 in the playoffs against teams on double digit winning streaks. KC is 6-0 ATS against AFC teams.
Last year, after getting shelled by KC 41-14 in Arrowhead, New England won 13 of 15 and won the Super Bowl. Looks like a revenge game for Brady too. Watch out! Bill Belichick is 15-3 ATS in revenge games after losing by 14+ points in the previous matchup.
The spread is a bit high for me to lay a full Mega Bet but I did put down a prop bet for New England to win the Super Bowl so I'll lay a Mini Mega on the Pats. I'll pass on the over/under of 42.0
The reason for the falter is easy. The offensive line was in shambles. Brady was too busy picking himself of the turf to make any plays.
A week's rest is exactly what the doctor (or trainer) ordered. The OL will get back Sebation Vollmer who was last seen getting carted off the field in an OT loss to the Jets.
WR Julian Edelman will also be available. Brady is geeked to have his top wide out back. Not only is he a threat but it will open lanes for the Gronk. Gronlowski is listed as questionalble but I expect he will tough this one out.
On the other sidelines, Kansas City is riding into Foxboro on an 11 game winning streak. But KC will be without their top WR Jeremy Maclin. KC is pretty limited in the passing attack with dink and dunk QB Alex Smith. Without Maclin the aerial game will be non existant.
The Chiefs will need to rely on running the ball - a tall order since the Pats are 9th against the run.
A Patriots team getting starters back against a Chiefs team losing starters. I'll take the Pats at home
The trends are mixed. New England is 5-0 SU against KC in Foxboro and 2-0 in the playoffs against teams on double digit winning streaks. KC is 6-0 ATS against AFC teams.
Last year, after getting shelled by KC 41-14 in Arrowhead, New England won 13 of 15 and won the Super Bowl. Looks like a revenge game for Brady too. Watch out! Bill Belichick is 15-3 ATS in revenge games after losing by 14+ points in the previous matchup.
The spread is a bit high for me to lay a full Mega Bet but I did put down a prop bet for New England to win the Super Bowl so I'll lay a Mini Mega on the Pats. I'll pass on the over/under of 42.0
Can Arizona repeat their week 16 performance against the Pack? Green Bay +7.0 @ Arizona - You're kidding me right? The sinister Aaron Rodgers is back and he;s getting a TD? What gives?
The line mainly reflects the 38-8 beat down that Arizona gave Green Bay back in week 16. The Cardinals poured through the Packer makeshift OL and sacked him 9 times. The defense also scored twice in the beat down.
So why should this game be any different? Well, for one, when two good teams meet in a rematch the outcome is rarely the same. Recall that in week 13 Seattle destroyed Minnesota 38-7. Last weekend, Minnesota was a missed chip shot FG from winning outright.
I also like the fact that Green Bay was able to keep Rodgers upright against the Redskins last weekend. Washington has its flaws but their pass rush is pretty decent.
The chances of Arizona repeating their Week 16 perormance are hugely diminished due to several key injuries on defense. LB Alex Okafar is out with a toe injury and DT Corey Redding is sidelined with an ankle injury. Tyrann "don't call me Honey badger no more" will also be missing due to a knee injury.
That's not to say that the Pack is coming in completely healthy. WR Davante Adams most likey won't play due to a knee injury and LB Sam Shields must still pass the concussion protocol before he can put on his helmet.
The trends are mixed in this one. Road teams coming off a victory in week 1 (Green Bay) are 12-3 ATS in week 2 while Arizona is on a 17-8 ATS winning streak against the NFC.
I lay a Mega bet on the evil grinned Rodgers to keep it within a TD, maybe even with a back door cover. I also Like Larry Fitzgerald to have fun against a dinged up Green Bay pass defense so I'll take the over 50.0 for the first time in the playoffs for a quatloo.
The line mainly reflects the 38-8 beat down that Arizona gave Green Bay back in week 16. The Cardinals poured through the Packer makeshift OL and sacked him 9 times. The defense also scored twice in the beat down.
So why should this game be any different? Well, for one, when two good teams meet in a rematch the outcome is rarely the same. Recall that in week 13 Seattle destroyed Minnesota 38-7. Last weekend, Minnesota was a missed chip shot FG from winning outright.
I also like the fact that Green Bay was able to keep Rodgers upright against the Redskins last weekend. Washington has its flaws but their pass rush is pretty decent.
The chances of Arizona repeating their Week 16 perormance are hugely diminished due to several key injuries on defense. LB Alex Okafar is out with a toe injury and DT Corey Redding is sidelined with an ankle injury. Tyrann "don't call me Honey badger no more" will also be missing due to a knee injury.
That's not to say that the Pack is coming in completely healthy. WR Davante Adams most likey won't play due to a knee injury and LB Sam Shields must still pass the concussion protocol before he can put on his helmet.
The trends are mixed in this one. Road teams coming off a victory in week 1 (Green Bay) are 12-3 ATS in week 2 while Arizona is on a 17-8 ATS winning streak against the NFC.
I lay a Mega bet on the evil grinned Rodgers to keep it within a TD, maybe even with a back door cover. I also Like Larry Fitzgerald to have fun against a dinged up Green Bay pass defense so I'll take the over 50.0 for the first time in the playoffs for a quatloo.
Cam is a threat to take it north and south Carolina -1.5 vs Seattle - This should be the best game of the weekend. The defending NFC champs against the #1 team in the NFL.
And yet, somehow this line looks a little fishy. Is it a trap??
Again, this is a rematch game. Carolina beat Seattle on the road back in week 6 27-23.
Seattle struggled early in the season but came on strong late. Since that defeat, the Seahawks have won six straight on the road while allowing only 34 points.
These teams are remarkably similar - outstanding defenses with mobile quarterbacks leading the offense.
Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch was a late scratch last week but is expected to play this weekend. But a dinged up Lynch will still struggle to get anything going against a Panther rush defense ranked 7th overall.
Carolina RB Jonathon Stewart is dinged up too. Even if he plays he will struggle as Seattle is number 2 against the run.
So, like most games in the NFL, this game will come down to who has the best quarterack. I like Cam Newton to outplay Russell Wilson. Both are mobile but Cam will go north and south while Wilson looks to pass off the scramble drill.
Another factor in Carolina's favor is that the weakness of the Seattle defense is against tight ends. In the first meeting, TE Greg Olsen had a great game hauking in 7 catches for 131 yards and the go ahead TD.
The sharps are all over the Seahawks. 70%+ of the handle is on the Panthers yet the spread has moved from Carolina -3.0 to -1.5.
I don't like going against hte sharps but I will. I made a prop bet for Carolina to win the NFC so I'll lay a Mega on Carolina at home giving less than a FG.
I'll put a quatloo down on the under 44.0 too
And yet, somehow this line looks a little fishy. Is it a trap??
Again, this is a rematch game. Carolina beat Seattle on the road back in week 6 27-23.
Seattle struggled early in the season but came on strong late. Since that defeat, the Seahawks have won six straight on the road while allowing only 34 points.
These teams are remarkably similar - outstanding defenses with mobile quarterbacks leading the offense.
Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch was a late scratch last week but is expected to play this weekend. But a dinged up Lynch will still struggle to get anything going against a Panther rush defense ranked 7th overall.
Carolina RB Jonathon Stewart is dinged up too. Even if he plays he will struggle as Seattle is number 2 against the run.
So, like most games in the NFL, this game will come down to who has the best quarterack. I like Cam Newton to outplay Russell Wilson. Both are mobile but Cam will go north and south while Wilson looks to pass off the scramble drill.
Another factor in Carolina's favor is that the weakness of the Seattle defense is against tight ends. In the first meeting, TE Greg Olsen had a great game hauking in 7 catches for 131 yards and the go ahead TD.
The sharps are all over the Seahawks. 70%+ of the handle is on the Panthers yet the spread has moved from Carolina -3.0 to -1.5.
I don't like going against hte sharps but I will. I made a prop bet for Carolina to win the NFC so I'll lay a Mega on Carolina at home giving less than a FG.
I'll put a quatloo down on the under 44.0 too
Burfict not only took out Antonio Brown with a cheap shot - he rolled over Roethlisberger's shoulder too Pittsburgh +7.0 vs Denver - From the best game of the weekend to the worst game.
This game will come down to - who has the biggest noodle for an arm?
Peyton has been wet spaghetti all year. Roethlisberger has a cannon for an arm but went down with a nasty shoulder injury last week and now can't throw it past his belly.
Add in that Big Ben's favorite target will likely sit this game out after getting detroyed by a cheap shot last week by Cincinnati and I'm not sure how Pittsburgh is going to move the ball.
Neither team will be able to run the ball. The Steeler's had the 5th best rushing defense while Denver's was 3rd.
So the play for me is the under. I'l lay a Mini Mega that the total points is under 39.0. And in a low scoring game I'll lay a quatloo on Pittsburgh to cover the TD spread.
This game will come down to - who has the biggest noodle for an arm?
Peyton has been wet spaghetti all year. Roethlisberger has a cannon for an arm but went down with a nasty shoulder injury last week and now can't throw it past his belly.
Add in that Big Ben's favorite target will likely sit this game out after getting detroyed by a cheap shot last week by Cincinnati and I'm not sure how Pittsburgh is going to move the ball.
Neither team will be able to run the ball. The Steeler's had the 5th best rushing defense while Denver's was 3rd.
So the play for me is the under. I'l lay a Mini Mega that the total points is under 39.0. And in a low scoring game I'll lay a quatloo on Pittsburgh to cover the TD spread.
