San Jose State made it to a bowl after going 5-7 Every year the complaint comes up –there are too many bowls!!
And in years past I would have said "Not me – I can’t get enough of ‘em." I mean more bowls means there is more College Football!
Sure, there are a ton of mediocre teams playing. But it’s also a time to see some matchups that you never get to see otherwise. Big time teams playing out of conference non cupcakes for a change and mid major powers positioning for next year’s New Years Day bowls.
But I do take exception this year. They have finally gotten to the point where, I have to admit, they have a few too many bowls. This year there are 40 bowls not including the National Championship Game. That means there are 80 slots available. Since there are only 128 Div 1A teams, nearly 2/3 of Div 1A teams get a chance to play an extra game.
It used to be that you had to have a record of 7-5 or better to go bowling. Then it slowly degraded down to 6-6 or better. But with 80 slots, the NCAA didn't have enough teams at 6-6. They needed 3 5-7 teams (Nebraska, Minnesota and San Jose State) to round out the field. I got to admit , there are finally too many bowls. It got so bad that the Arizona Bowl had to take two teams from the same conference - Nevada and Colorado State. The Mountain West commissioner is pissed!
Still, there are plenty of great bowls to watch. How about two legendary programs like Notre Dame and Ohio State squaring off. These two would never schedule a regular season match up but they will play each other on New Years Day.
Or how about the high flying Cal Bears taking on Air Force's triple option. Even more fun could be New head Coach and defensive mastermind Pat Narduzzi trying to shut down Navy's even better triple option.
And in years past I would have said "Not me – I can’t get enough of ‘em." I mean more bowls means there is more College Football!
Sure, there are a ton of mediocre teams playing. But it’s also a time to see some matchups that you never get to see otherwise. Big time teams playing out of conference non cupcakes for a change and mid major powers positioning for next year’s New Years Day bowls.
But I do take exception this year. They have finally gotten to the point where, I have to admit, they have a few too many bowls. This year there are 40 bowls not including the National Championship Game. That means there are 80 slots available. Since there are only 128 Div 1A teams, nearly 2/3 of Div 1A teams get a chance to play an extra game.
It used to be that you had to have a record of 7-5 or better to go bowling. Then it slowly degraded down to 6-6 or better. But with 80 slots, the NCAA didn't have enough teams at 6-6. They needed 3 5-7 teams (Nebraska, Minnesota and San Jose State) to round out the field. I got to admit , there are finally too many bowls. It got so bad that the Arizona Bowl had to take two teams from the same conference - Nevada and Colorado State. The Mountain West commissioner is pissed!
Still, there are plenty of great bowls to watch. How about two legendary programs like Notre Dame and Ohio State squaring off. These two would never schedule a regular season match up but they will play each other on New Years Day.
Or how about the high flying Cal Bears taking on Air Force's triple option. Even more fun could be New head Coach and defensive mastermind Pat Narduzzi trying to shut down Navy's even better triple option.
Can the Heels keep pace with Baylor? If its defense you want Michigan ranked number 4 playing Florida ranked 6th. It's also a chance to see two head coaches in their first year returning their programs to bowl games.
For offense, how about TCU's 3rd ranked offense versus Oregon at number 6?
Then again, there are bowls with traditional powers that are realizing that the football landscape has changed for good and they will never be the super powers they were in the past. Penn State faces Georgia who will be without their head coach after serial nine to ten win seasons. Can the fan base take another loss?
Ellis will get a chance to see if the Heels offense can matchup with Baylor's. Mrs H is going to get a chance to see if Iowa is really all that when her Stanford team takes on the Hawkeyes in the Rose Bowl.
For offense, how about TCU's 3rd ranked offense versus Oregon at number 6?
Then again, there are bowls with traditional powers that are realizing that the football landscape has changed for good and they will never be the super powers they were in the past. Penn State faces Georgia who will be without their head coach after serial nine to ten win seasons. Can the fan base take another loss?
Ellis will get a chance to see if the Heels offense can matchup with Baylor's. Mrs H is going to get a chance to see if Iowa is really all that when her Stanford team takes on the Hawkeyes in the Rose Bowl.
Middle Tenn State vs Western? Yeah I'll be watching With so many bowls there is no better way to make sure you have a stake in every game and make you tune in than to play in a confidence pool. Since you have read this far it means you have a more than passing interest in football and probably know how confidence pools work.
But just in case, a confidence pool has you pick every bowl game and assign points depending on how confident you are in the pick. This year with 40 bowl games it means you assign 40 points to your most confident, absolute slam dunk, can’t happen any other way team. And one point on an upset or you just can’t figure the game out or you don’t want to jinx your favorite team.
And by playing in a pool all of a sudden that Middle Tennessee State versus Western Michigan game (should be a great game too!) that you otherwise couldn’t care less about – has you glued to the TV as a mid teen pick.
So how to pick teams? Well there are some things to consider. First obviously is the spread. Last thing you want to do is put a ton of points on a huge upset. Putting 40 on Tulsa to upset 13 point favorite Va Tech is a high risk strategy. Of course if it did pan out you would be way ahead in your pool. High risk equals high reward.
That doesn’t mean that there isn’t room for picking upsets. Bowl games are littered with them. So what should you look at in picking teams and allocating points.
Here are some other factors to consider:
But just in case, a confidence pool has you pick every bowl game and assign points depending on how confident you are in the pick. This year with 40 bowl games it means you assign 40 points to your most confident, absolute slam dunk, can’t happen any other way team. And one point on an upset or you just can’t figure the game out or you don’t want to jinx your favorite team.
And by playing in a pool all of a sudden that Middle Tennessee State versus Western Michigan game (should be a great game too!) that you otherwise couldn’t care less about – has you glued to the TV as a mid teen pick.
So how to pick teams? Well there are some things to consider. First obviously is the spread. Last thing you want to do is put a ton of points on a huge upset. Putting 40 on Tulsa to upset 13 point favorite Va Tech is a high risk strategy. Of course if it did pan out you would be way ahead in your pool. High risk equals high reward.
That doesn’t mean that there isn’t room for picking upsets. Bowl games are littered with them. So what should you look at in picking teams and allocating points.
Here are some other factors to consider:
Mark Richt hopes things will be looking up at Miami (FL) Change in Coaches
Bowl season is also in the middle of the Coaching Carousel. Good middle weight teams are losing their coaches to the heavy weights. Also some heavy weights didn't perform up to expectations while still making a bowl. They fired their head coaches any ways.
Here are the bowl teams that won’t have their head coaches returning next year:
Toledo - Former HC Matt Campbell is off to Iowa State. Former OC Jason Candle was appointed the new HC and will coach in the Rockets in the Boca Raton Bowl
Bowling Green - Dino Babers left to coach Syracuse
Miami (FL) - Al Golden got canned in midseason to be replaced by former Georgia HC Mark Richt
Georgia - Supposedly it was a mutual decision to fire Richt but Bama DC Kirby Smart sure got the job fast.
Memphis - Justin Fuente was rumored for a lot of jobs. He selected to replace a legend at Virginia Tech.
Last year, teams replacing their HC went 3-3 in bowls.
Bowl season is also in the middle of the Coaching Carousel. Good middle weight teams are losing their coaches to the heavy weights. Also some heavy weights didn't perform up to expectations while still making a bowl. They fired their head coaches any ways.
Here are the bowl teams that won’t have their head coaches returning next year:
Toledo - Former HC Matt Campbell is off to Iowa State. Former OC Jason Candle was appointed the new HC and will coach in the Rockets in the Boca Raton Bowl
Bowling Green - Dino Babers left to coach Syracuse
Miami (FL) - Al Golden got canned in midseason to be replaced by former Georgia HC Mark Richt
Georgia - Supposedly it was a mutual decision to fire Richt but Bama DC Kirby Smart sure got the job fast.
Memphis - Justin Fuente was rumored for a lot of jobs. He selected to replace a legend at Virginia Tech.
Last year, teams replacing their HC went 3-3 in bowls.
The New Orleans Bowl sure likes teams from Louisiana Location
Does playing in your home state get you a home field advantage? A full 15 teams will soon find out
Louisiana Tech - After several years of UL Lafayette playing in the New Orleans Bowl, this year they invited La Tech.
South Florida - plays in the Miami Beach Bowl
UCLA - plays upstate in the Foster Farms Bowl
Navy - plays on their home field in Annapolis in the Military Bowl
Central Michigan - plays in Detroit in the Quick Lane Bowl
Texas Tech - The Red Raiders travel to Houston for the Texas Bowl
Auburn - The Tigers play in the old Iron Bowl in Birmingham against Memphis.
NC State - The WolfPack will be playing in Charlotte in the Belk Bowl
USC - The Trojans have a short trip down I5 to San Diego in the Holiday Bowl
Florida - The Gators will be playing in Orlando in the Peach Bowl
Stanford - Another year, another trip to Pasedena for the Tree
TCU - The Horny Toads are in San Antonio for the Alamo Bowl
Arizona State - The Forks are in Phoenix for the Cactus Bowl
Last year the in state teams went 3-7 including Baylor's loss to Michigan State. Maybe playing so close to home is a demotivator.
Does playing in your home state get you a home field advantage? A full 15 teams will soon find out
Louisiana Tech - After several years of UL Lafayette playing in the New Orleans Bowl, this year they invited La Tech.
South Florida - plays in the Miami Beach Bowl
UCLA - plays upstate in the Foster Farms Bowl
Navy - plays on their home field in Annapolis in the Military Bowl
Central Michigan - plays in Detroit in the Quick Lane Bowl
Texas Tech - The Red Raiders travel to Houston for the Texas Bowl
Auburn - The Tigers play in the old Iron Bowl in Birmingham against Memphis.
NC State - The WolfPack will be playing in Charlotte in the Belk Bowl
USC - The Trojans have a short trip down I5 to San Diego in the Holiday Bowl
Florida - The Gators will be playing in Orlando in the Peach Bowl
Stanford - Another year, another trip to Pasedena for the Tree
TCU - The Horny Toads are in San Antonio for the Alamo Bowl
Arizona State - The Forks are in Phoenix for the Cactus Bowl
Last year the in state teams went 3-7 including Baylor's loss to Michigan State. Maybe playing so close to home is a demotivator.
With so many variables how to allocate those 40 points?
Let's start with the spreads. If you were to go with all favorites and allocate the points strictly on the spread (bigger spread = more points) you would end up with the following:
Let's start with the spreads. If you were to go with all favorites and allocate the points strictly on the spread (bigger spread = more points) you would end up with the following:
Using this method last year in our 101 person pool you would have ended up 38th. The big upsets were Alabama (36 points), LSU (33), Auburn (29) and Ole Miss (28). Looks like Vegas overrate the SEC last year.
That said Vegas did get Florida (30), Missouri (22) and Tennessee (20) correct so ignore the SEC at your own peril.
Another method would be to use the Sagarin ratings as follows (For an overview of the Sagarin ratings check out the glossary)
That said Vegas did get Florida (30), Missouri (22) and Tennessee (20) correct so ignore the SEC at your own peril.
Another method would be to use the Sagarin ratings as follows (For an overview of the Sagarin ratings check out the glossary)
I've gotten away from the Sagaring rating this year as it tended to overrate the SEC and Big 12. Using this method last year would have resulted in coming in a woeful 64th. I use it to compare teams within a conference (quick who is better Ball State or Buffalo?) or Sun Belt vs CUSA vs MAC teams.
No amount of analytics is going to get a perfect score. The idea is to keep the cost of your misses to a minimum. Also, I like to not jinx State and root against Michigan so I'll put less points on those games.
And I think the SEC is still overrated again this year. So with all that in mind here are my picks and points. I'm entering two picks in my pool. The first set of picks is my best guess while the second is if upsets start taking over.
I've also added the picks by the College Football News. They do a fairly good job in sorting out teams.
No amount of analytics is going to get a perfect score. The idea is to keep the cost of your misses to a minimum. Also, I like to not jinx State and root against Michigan so I'll put less points on those games.
And I think the SEC is still overrated again this year. So with all that in mind here are my picks and points. I'm entering two picks in my pool. The first set of picks is my best guess while the second is if upsets start taking over.
I've also added the picks by the College Football News. They do a fairly good job in sorting out teams.
Good Luck
And remember - the 2016 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 5th at the Westgate Resort
And remember - the 2016 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 5th at the Westgate Resort
