Spartans are in the Rose Bowl! It’s time for the Annual Bowl Pick edition of the Big Book of
Guesses.
Every year the complaint comes up –there are too many bowls!!
Not me – I can’t get enough of ‘em. Sure there a ton of mediocre teams playing. But it’s also a time to see some matchups that you never get to see otherwise. Big time teams playing out of conference non cupcakes for a change.
When else to you get to see two legendary programs like Alabama and Oklahoma square off. Or two consistent BCS contenders like South Carolina versus Wisconsin. I will be hurrying home from a
Rose Bowl trip to watch Oklahoma State take on the surprising Missouri Tigers.
Or how about Ohio State playing Clemson for the first time since
Woody Hayes famously punched Charlie Bauman. You be sure to see plenty of this clip during the run up to the game
Guesses.
Every year the complaint comes up –there are too many bowls!!
Not me – I can’t get enough of ‘em. Sure there a ton of mediocre teams playing. But it’s also a time to see some matchups that you never get to see otherwise. Big time teams playing out of conference non cupcakes for a change.
When else to you get to see two legendary programs like Alabama and Oklahoma square off. Or two consistent BCS contenders like South Carolina versus Wisconsin. I will be hurrying home from a
Rose Bowl trip to watch Oklahoma State take on the surprising Missouri Tigers.
Or how about Ohio State playing Clemson for the first time since
Woody Hayes famously punched Charlie Bauman. You be sure to see plenty of this clip during the run up to the game
Texas Tech has lost 5 straight games How about a rejuvenated Fresno State taking on a rebounding USC in the Las Vegas Bowl? These two teams nearly made it to a BCS bowl this year. And in a factoid to amaze your friends in the bar stools next to you. This is the second year in a row that the Las Vegas Bowl will host two teams that will start the next year playing each other. Last year, Boise State and Washington played in the Las Vegas Bowl before opening the 2013 season in Seattle. This year, Fresno State and USC will meet in Vegas before opening the 2014 season in LA.
And another trivia tidbit – the Fight Hunger Bowl will be the first time two female refs will call a game. The CUSA crew includes Sarah Thomas as line judge and Maia Chaka as head linesman.
Or how about Texas Tech has lost five straight games but still made it to the Holiday Bowl to face off against Arizona State. But before you go wild on putting points on the Forks - last year Texas Tech lost four of five before beating Minnesota in the Meineke Car Care Bowl. The year before that they lost five in a row but weren't bowl eligible.
With so many bowls there is no better way to make sure you have a stake in every game and make you tune in than to play in a confidence pool. Since you have read this far it means you have a more than passing interest in football and probably know how confidence pools work.
But for the accidental reader with a high tolerance for drivel who has made it this far – a confidence pool has you pick every bowl game and assign points depending on how confident you are in the pick. This year with 35 bowl games it means you assign 35 points to your most confident, absolute slam dunk, can’t happen any other way team. And one point on an upset or you just can’t figure the game out or you don’t want to jinx your favorite team.
And by playing in a pool all of a sudden that Marshall vs Maryland game that otherwise couldn’t care less about – has you glued to the TV as a mid teen pick.
So how to pick teams? Well there are some things to consider. First obviously is the spread. Last thing you want to do is put a ton of points on a huge upset. Putting 35 points on Rutgers to upset Notre Dame is a high risk strategy. Of
course if it did pan out you would be way ahead in your pool. High risk equals high reward.
That doesn’t mean that there isn’t room for picking upsets. Bowl games are littered with them. So what should you look at in picking teams and allocating points.
Change in Coaches
Bowl season is also in the middle of the Coaching Carousel. Good middle weight teams are losing their coaches to the heavy weights. Also some heavy weights didn’t perform up to expectations while still making a bowl. They fired their head coaches any ways.
Last year teams losing the HC went 3-7 straight up and against the spread. Here are the bowl
teams that won’t have their head coaches returning next year:
Texas – Mack Brown “retired” Perhaps the players will want him to go out a winner
USC – Interim HC Ed Orgeron turned things around but got the bum rush any way.
Washington - lost theirs to USC
Boise State - lost theirs to Washington
Arkansas State - lost theirs to Boise State – everyone is moving up the ladder
Bowling Green - lost theirs to Wake Forest who is not in a bowl.
Motivation
Perhaps even more important is the motivation factor. Some teams are excited to be in a bowl while others are pissed they missed a bigger bowl or overlook their opponent. If you are looking for an upset to jump you in the pool – this is where to look.
Six teams are returning to the same bowl they played in last season. Will they be as motivated the second time
around?
Louisiana-Lafayette - New Orleans
Arkansas State - GoDaddy.com
Minnesota - Texas
Cincinnati - Belk
Texas - Alamo
Stanford - Rose
Five teams won conference championships for the first time in forever and will want to keep the party going.
Rice - won its first outright conference championship since 1957.
Baylor - won the Big 12 for the first time since 1980.
Bowling Green - won the MAC for the first time since 1992.
Fresno State - won its first outright conference championship since 1991.
And of course, Michigan State – is headed to the Rose Bowl after winning the Big 10 championship for the first time since 1987.
And another trivia tidbit – the Fight Hunger Bowl will be the first time two female refs will call a game. The CUSA crew includes Sarah Thomas as line judge and Maia Chaka as head linesman.
Or how about Texas Tech has lost five straight games but still made it to the Holiday Bowl to face off against Arizona State. But before you go wild on putting points on the Forks - last year Texas Tech lost four of five before beating Minnesota in the Meineke Car Care Bowl. The year before that they lost five in a row but weren't bowl eligible.
With so many bowls there is no better way to make sure you have a stake in every game and make you tune in than to play in a confidence pool. Since you have read this far it means you have a more than passing interest in football and probably know how confidence pools work.
But for the accidental reader with a high tolerance for drivel who has made it this far – a confidence pool has you pick every bowl game and assign points depending on how confident you are in the pick. This year with 35 bowl games it means you assign 35 points to your most confident, absolute slam dunk, can’t happen any other way team. And one point on an upset or you just can’t figure the game out or you don’t want to jinx your favorite team.
And by playing in a pool all of a sudden that Marshall vs Maryland game that otherwise couldn’t care less about – has you glued to the TV as a mid teen pick.
So how to pick teams? Well there are some things to consider. First obviously is the spread. Last thing you want to do is put a ton of points on a huge upset. Putting 35 points on Rutgers to upset Notre Dame is a high risk strategy. Of
course if it did pan out you would be way ahead in your pool. High risk equals high reward.
That doesn’t mean that there isn’t room for picking upsets. Bowl games are littered with them. So what should you look at in picking teams and allocating points.
Change in Coaches
Bowl season is also in the middle of the Coaching Carousel. Good middle weight teams are losing their coaches to the heavy weights. Also some heavy weights didn’t perform up to expectations while still making a bowl. They fired their head coaches any ways.
Last year teams losing the HC went 3-7 straight up and against the spread. Here are the bowl
teams that won’t have their head coaches returning next year:
Texas – Mack Brown “retired” Perhaps the players will want him to go out a winner
USC – Interim HC Ed Orgeron turned things around but got the bum rush any way.
Washington - lost theirs to USC
Boise State - lost theirs to Washington
Arkansas State - lost theirs to Boise State – everyone is moving up the ladder
Bowling Green - lost theirs to Wake Forest who is not in a bowl.
Motivation
Perhaps even more important is the motivation factor. Some teams are excited to be in a bowl while others are pissed they missed a bigger bowl or overlook their opponent. If you are looking for an upset to jump you in the pool – this is where to look.
Six teams are returning to the same bowl they played in last season. Will they be as motivated the second time
around?
Louisiana-Lafayette - New Orleans
Arkansas State - GoDaddy.com
Minnesota - Texas
Cincinnati - Belk
Texas - Alamo
Stanford - Rose
Five teams won conference championships for the first time in forever and will want to keep the party going.
Rice - won its first outright conference championship since 1957.
Baylor - won the Big 12 for the first time since 1980.
Bowling Green - won the MAC for the first time since 1992.
Fresno State - won its first outright conference championship since 1991.
And of course, Michigan State – is headed to the Rose Bowl after winning the Big 10 championship for the first time since 1987.
Buffalo or San Diego State?? Location
Some people like to factor this in figuring that teams playing closer to home will have a better crowd and familiarity with the surroundings. They could be onto something. Last year picking the “home” team went 9-4 (8-4-1 against the spread)
This year the “home” teams are:
Tulane – plays at home in the Super Dome.
Maryland – plays in Annapolis in the Military Bowl
Rutgers – is in the Pinstripe Bowl in the Bronx
North Carolina – plays in Charlotte in the Belk Bowl
Miami (FL) – is in the Russell Athletic Bowl in Orlando
Texas – is in the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio
North Texas – is in the Heart of Texas Bowl in Dallas
Georgia – annually plays in Jacksonville in the Worlds Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party against Florida. Now
they play there in the Gator Bowl vs Nebraska. This is actually a rematch of last years Capital One Bowl where Georgia trounced Nebraksa. Will the Mutts be as motivated or over confident this time around?
And of course there is the overall strategy. Most people take the same highly favored teams and bet a ton of points on them. One strategy is to pick a couple that may get upset and allocated fewer points. That way if they lose you don’t get dinged as much. In confidence pools - it not the teams that win that matter it’s the teams that lose with big points that really count.
Most pools have a “potential points” tracking during the bowl season. That is what to focus on not the points so
far. Key is to not have your big point teams get upset. Allocate less points to a heavy favorite and you can actually root against them if needed to get ahead.
So with all that in mind attached are my picks for the 2013-2014 season. I am in two pools so I have the picks for
both pools. The first set of picks is factoring all the above. The second is a straight blending of the spreads and the Sagarin Rating. Going to see how pure math does this year
And as usual I have included the spreads, times and other useless information.
All the picks are straight up - no spreads. That gets way too complicated!
Some people like to factor this in figuring that teams playing closer to home will have a better crowd and familiarity with the surroundings. They could be onto something. Last year picking the “home” team went 9-4 (8-4-1 against the spread)
This year the “home” teams are:
Tulane – plays at home in the Super Dome.
Maryland – plays in Annapolis in the Military Bowl
Rutgers – is in the Pinstripe Bowl in the Bronx
North Carolina – plays in Charlotte in the Belk Bowl
Miami (FL) – is in the Russell Athletic Bowl in Orlando
Texas – is in the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio
North Texas – is in the Heart of Texas Bowl in Dallas
Georgia – annually plays in Jacksonville in the Worlds Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party against Florida. Now
they play there in the Gator Bowl vs Nebraska. This is actually a rematch of last years Capital One Bowl where Georgia trounced Nebraksa. Will the Mutts be as motivated or over confident this time around?
And of course there is the overall strategy. Most people take the same highly favored teams and bet a ton of points on them. One strategy is to pick a couple that may get upset and allocated fewer points. That way if they lose you don’t get dinged as much. In confidence pools - it not the teams that win that matter it’s the teams that lose with big points that really count.
Most pools have a “potential points” tracking during the bowl season. That is what to focus on not the points so
far. Key is to not have your big point teams get upset. Allocate less points to a heavy favorite and you can actually root against them if needed to get ahead.
So with all that in mind attached are my picks for the 2013-2014 season. I am in two pools so I have the picks for
both pools. The first set of picks is factoring all the above. The second is a straight blending of the spreads and the Sagarin Rating. Going to see how pure math does this year
And as usual I have included the spreads, times and other useless information.
All the picks are straight up - no spreads. That gets way too complicated!
| 2013-14_bowl_picks.xlsx |
Remember - the 2014 GO HJUMBO trip is Nov 15th at the LVH Hotel
