Before we get into the Big 12 Preview, Mrs Doofus wanted to share a clip about her favorite Bible verse
Anyone up for getting T-shirts that say Psalm 38:7 for the GO JUMBO trip?
Baylor – Vegas Win Total – 6.5 – Not long ago, many Baylor fans were wondering if the Briles era scandals had permanently damaged the Baylor brand. And if Matt Rhule wasn’t the up and comer he seemed to be after some great years at Temple. Those concerns were heightened after Rhule went 1-11 in his first year. Now, Bear fans are breathing easier. Rhule went 7-6 with a bowl win over Vandy.
The offense progressed in year 2, mainly due to QB Charlie Brewer, who displayed the sort of moxie that his dad Robert once showed as a Texas QB in the early 80s. The Bears were able to dominate the time of possession battle by doing a great job on third downs with a balanced attack that should be even better with eight starters returning. It will be running back by committee with the top four returning. It's a solid rotation.
With Chris Platt getting a fifth-year waiver, the receiving corps has depth and experience. But, the offensive line has to hold up its end of the bargain. It was fine for the running game, but it gave up the most sacks and most tackles for loss in the conference.
Last years defense was a speed bump for ground games and, much like sacks allowed were the offense's Achilles heel, forced turnovers are the weak spot for the defense. With seven interceptions and three fumble recoveries, the Bears were last in the Big 12 in turnovers gained (10) and ranked ahead of only Oregon State (eight) among the 130 teams nationally.
Linebacker appears to be the strongest position, with all three starters returning and good depth behind them. Depth may be an issue up front, but the Bears have some difference-makers in the line. The secondary is in flux after finishing 3rd in the Big 12 in passing yards allowed last year. The safeties are anchored down but its wait and see with CB.
Matt ‘The Fixer’ Rhule’s first year teams at Temple and Baylor went 2-10 and 1-11 respectively. In Year Two with those programs, they improved to 6-6 and 7-6. So what does the 3rd year hold for Rhule, you ask? If Temple’s 10-4 record in year three is any indicator, the Bears should start making holiday reservations now.
I’m not sure they will get to 10 wins but, the out of conference slate is all fairy dust and unicorns. It will get the Bears half way to bowl eligibility. Split the Big 12 slate and you get to eight wins. The turnaround continues upward in Waco.
Investors Note: Betting on Rhule when catching points is a money maker. He is 25-9 as a dog since his days in Temple.
The offense progressed in year 2, mainly due to QB Charlie Brewer, who displayed the sort of moxie that his dad Robert once showed as a Texas QB in the early 80s. The Bears were able to dominate the time of possession battle by doing a great job on third downs with a balanced attack that should be even better with eight starters returning. It will be running back by committee with the top four returning. It's a solid rotation.
With Chris Platt getting a fifth-year waiver, the receiving corps has depth and experience. But, the offensive line has to hold up its end of the bargain. It was fine for the running game, but it gave up the most sacks and most tackles for loss in the conference.
Last years defense was a speed bump for ground games and, much like sacks allowed were the offense's Achilles heel, forced turnovers are the weak spot for the defense. With seven interceptions and three fumble recoveries, the Bears were last in the Big 12 in turnovers gained (10) and ranked ahead of only Oregon State (eight) among the 130 teams nationally.
Linebacker appears to be the strongest position, with all three starters returning and good depth behind them. Depth may be an issue up front, but the Bears have some difference-makers in the line. The secondary is in flux after finishing 3rd in the Big 12 in passing yards allowed last year. The safeties are anchored down but its wait and see with CB.
Matt ‘The Fixer’ Rhule’s first year teams at Temple and Baylor went 2-10 and 1-11 respectively. In Year Two with those programs, they improved to 6-6 and 7-6. So what does the 3rd year hold for Rhule, you ask? If Temple’s 10-4 record in year three is any indicator, the Bears should start making holiday reservations now.
I’m not sure they will get to 10 wins but, the out of conference slate is all fairy dust and unicorns. It will get the Bears half way to bowl eligibility. Split the Big 12 slate and you get to eight wins. The turnaround continues upward in Waco.
Investors Note: Betting on Rhule when catching points is a money maker. He is 25-9 as a dog since his days in Temple.
Iowa State – Vegas Win Total - 8.0 – Everyone major power looking for a new HC took a long look but no one came away with HC Matt Campbell in the last coaching carousel. It may have to do with the buy out clause and it may have been to what Campbell saw coming back. Sure, RB David Montgomery (3rd round Bears) and WR Hakeem Butler (4th round Cardinals) have both moved on to the NFL but take a deeper look and there are enough pieces coming back to make a run at the Big 12 championship.
Start with QB Brock Purdy. He was supposed to redshirt as a freshman last year but after the Cyclones started off 1-4 he stepped in and led the way to a 7-1 run and a bowl appearance. Along the way he tossed 4 TD passes in his first start (a 48-42 win at Oklahoma State) and set school records for completion percentage and passing efficiency.
No one can replace Montgomery. So the Cyclones will likely have a running back by committee. No matter who has the ball, the blocking will be there behind one of the Big 12’s better offensive fronts. All five starters return on a line that should have at least three all-stars.
A star will need to emerge at WR with Arkansas transfer La’Michael Pettway (he was the Razorbacks leading receiver) Tarique Milton, who finished second on the team with 417 yards, and Deshaunte Jones was second in catches with 43.
Where ISU really made its mark last year was on the defense. It led the high scoring Big 12 in scoring defense and 9th nationally in rush defense. The defensive line is this team’s top position group heading into 2019. It will be pulverizing unit with all starters back in the fold including two all-conference performers in senior end JaQuan Bailey and senior tackle Ray Lima are back. Bailey has 18.5 sacks in his career, which is tied for the most in school history.
The secondary has to replace 4-year starting CB Brian Peavy but SS Greg Eisworth returns as the Big 12 Defensive Newcomer of the Year from last season. Iowa State lost Willie Harvey at linebacker but returns Marcel Spears Jr. and Mike Rose, who was one of the best freshman defensive players in the country last season.
In total, 11 Cyclones who received postseason All-Big 12 recognition are back. The foundation is there. I’ll take a flyer and put ISU winning the Big 12 at 12-1.
Start with QB Brock Purdy. He was supposed to redshirt as a freshman last year but after the Cyclones started off 1-4 he stepped in and led the way to a 7-1 run and a bowl appearance. Along the way he tossed 4 TD passes in his first start (a 48-42 win at Oklahoma State) and set school records for completion percentage and passing efficiency.
No one can replace Montgomery. So the Cyclones will likely have a running back by committee. No matter who has the ball, the blocking will be there behind one of the Big 12’s better offensive fronts. All five starters return on a line that should have at least three all-stars.
A star will need to emerge at WR with Arkansas transfer La’Michael Pettway (he was the Razorbacks leading receiver) Tarique Milton, who finished second on the team with 417 yards, and Deshaunte Jones was second in catches with 43.
Where ISU really made its mark last year was on the defense. It led the high scoring Big 12 in scoring defense and 9th nationally in rush defense. The defensive line is this team’s top position group heading into 2019. It will be pulverizing unit with all starters back in the fold including two all-conference performers in senior end JaQuan Bailey and senior tackle Ray Lima are back. Bailey has 18.5 sacks in his career, which is tied for the most in school history.
The secondary has to replace 4-year starting CB Brian Peavy but SS Greg Eisworth returns as the Big 12 Defensive Newcomer of the Year from last season. Iowa State lost Willie Harvey at linebacker but returns Marcel Spears Jr. and Mike Rose, who was one of the best freshman defensive players in the country last season.
In total, 11 Cyclones who received postseason All-Big 12 recognition are back. The foundation is there. I’ll take a flyer and put ISU winning the Big 12 at 12-1.
Kansas – Vegas Win Total – 3.5 – Oooooh, this is going to be interesting. Kansas, which has spent decades as one of the worst Power 5 football programs went out and hired a HC with a national title, Les “The Mad Hatter” Miles. Miles is inheriting one of the biggest rebuilds out there, coming to KU after previous coach David Beaty went just 6–42 in four seasons, 2–34 in the Big 12. Kansas just 23 over wins over the last…..decade.It’s going to be a tough rebuild.
There ain't much coming back from an offense that was 106th in scoring and 110th overall. RB Pooka Williams is a good start though. He was the Big 12 Frosh of the year after running for 1,245 yards. Miles recruited pro-style 6-5 QB Thomas MacVittie from the JUCO ranks. Miles has plenty of familiarity with MacVittie, as he previously recruited him when he was coach at LSU. Miles also hit the JUCO ranks for some WR targets for MacVittie and there is hope that former Bama transfer Daylon Charlot will emerge as a top target after disappointing in 2018.
There is some experience up front with eight of the projected ten-man two-deep along the OL being juniors or seniors. Nonetheless, trading points with many of the high-powered Big 12 attacks still figures to be a chore, and Miles was never accused of being progressive with his LSU offenses.
On defense, new DC D.J. Eliot (most recently at Colorado) will be switching the Jayhawks to a 3-4. He’ll have a near complete rebuild of the front seven that lost five starters to graduation. There is plenty of experience in the secondary where all four starters return, led by big-hitting FS Mike Lee and S Hasan Defense with his team high three picks.
Who knows what to expect from Miles. One radio commentator described him as John L Smith with players. Well, now he doesn’t have the players. The team will likely start out 2-0 with Indiana State and Coastal Carolina coming to town. The excitement will build and then a loss to Boston College. To get to four wins, the Jayhawks will need to win 2 Big 12 games. The last tine they won 2 conference games? 2008.
I'll defer judgement until I see a bit more. Time to see how good Miles really is.
There ain't much coming back from an offense that was 106th in scoring and 110th overall. RB Pooka Williams is a good start though. He was the Big 12 Frosh of the year after running for 1,245 yards. Miles recruited pro-style 6-5 QB Thomas MacVittie from the JUCO ranks. Miles has plenty of familiarity with MacVittie, as he previously recruited him when he was coach at LSU. Miles also hit the JUCO ranks for some WR targets for MacVittie and there is hope that former Bama transfer Daylon Charlot will emerge as a top target after disappointing in 2018.
There is some experience up front with eight of the projected ten-man two-deep along the OL being juniors or seniors. Nonetheless, trading points with many of the high-powered Big 12 attacks still figures to be a chore, and Miles was never accused of being progressive with his LSU offenses.
On defense, new DC D.J. Eliot (most recently at Colorado) will be switching the Jayhawks to a 3-4. He’ll have a near complete rebuild of the front seven that lost five starters to graduation. There is plenty of experience in the secondary where all four starters return, led by big-hitting FS Mike Lee and S Hasan Defense with his team high three picks.
Who knows what to expect from Miles. One radio commentator described him as John L Smith with players. Well, now he doesn’t have the players. The team will likely start out 2-0 with Indiana State and Coastal Carolina coming to town. The excitement will build and then a loss to Boston College. To get to four wins, the Jayhawks will need to win 2 Big 12 games. The last tine they won 2 conference games? 2008.
I'll defer judgement until I see a bit more. Time to see how good Miles really is.
Kansas State – Vegas Win Total – 5.5 – It’s Bill Snyder retirement Part Deux. He’s now one short of the Big Flippy. Snyder retires not only as the fourth person in the history of college football to be inducted into the Hall of Fame as an active coach, he’s the only college coach to have a football stadium named after him while he was still coaching. Put that in your pipe and smoke it, Nick and Dabo.
The last time Snyder retired, his replacement was underwhelming as Ron Prince went 17-20 (9-15 in conference). This time he is being replaced by a championship coach. Chris Klieman, was most recently winning national titles in the FCS ranks at North Dakota State. Klieman knows about following a legend as Craig Bohl had won back-to-back FCS titles with the Bison before Klieman took over in 2014, and darned if he didn’t do the same thing in four of his five seasons in Fargo.Too bad he won’t be inheriting a QB like Carson Wentz, who led the earlier Klieman/NDSU editions.
What he does inherit is a miserable offense that finished 111th in scoring and 114th overall last season. Snyder’s offenses were more conservative than Ronald Reagan in a grouchy mood. To breathe life into the offense, Klieman brought down his OC from NDSU, Courtney Messingham. Klieman and Meesingham ran a variation of the Bohl offense, heavy on between-the-tackle runs. But it appears that during spring ball a bit more of an aerial bent than usual was put into the playbook in order to utilize the strengths of QB Skylar Thompson, a dual-threat who started the bulk of last season. Also, the Wildcats lost its top four RBs from last year, including leading rusher Alex Barnes (1356 YR),so it appears that it’s a good time to unleash the air attack. Ball State grad transfer RB James Gilbert, who gained 2806 YR in his career with the Cardinals, likely becomes the featured RB.
Skylar will be tossing to an established set of wideouts led by leading 2018 receivers Isaiah Zuber and Dalton Schoen. The bulk of the OL returns and should be solid again despite losing Dalton Risner to the Broncos.
Klieman is a defensive coach, and his fingerprints will be all over this side of the ball this season. Fans can expect the Wildcats to play more aggressively under their new head coach and defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton. That means that corners will play close to the line of scrimmage, and linebackers might blitz more often. Hazelton’s emphsizes takeaways something sorely needed in Lawrence. The Wildcats forced just 19 turnovers last year.
Hazelton has some pieces to work with, including all of last year’s DL led by a pair of Sr DTs Terry Dishon and DE Reggie Walker. The LB position became a question mark when Justin Hughes, perhaps the best of the bunch, tore an ACL and is likely to miss the season. The pass defense also leaked a bit last year, though the D overall returns eight starters.
It’s one thing to take a championship team and keep it going. Taking an underperforming team and returning to the glory days is quite another. Things will start out OK with two easy wins over Nichols and Bowling Green but trying to find four wins in the Big 12? That is the test for Klieman and crew. I’ll believe it when I see it.
Investors Note: One area that Klieman will look to improve is as the home bully. KSU is 4-11 ATS when favored at home.
The last time Snyder retired, his replacement was underwhelming as Ron Prince went 17-20 (9-15 in conference). This time he is being replaced by a championship coach. Chris Klieman, was most recently winning national titles in the FCS ranks at North Dakota State. Klieman knows about following a legend as Craig Bohl had won back-to-back FCS titles with the Bison before Klieman took over in 2014, and darned if he didn’t do the same thing in four of his five seasons in Fargo.Too bad he won’t be inheriting a QB like Carson Wentz, who led the earlier Klieman/NDSU editions.
What he does inherit is a miserable offense that finished 111th in scoring and 114th overall last season. Snyder’s offenses were more conservative than Ronald Reagan in a grouchy mood. To breathe life into the offense, Klieman brought down his OC from NDSU, Courtney Messingham. Klieman and Meesingham ran a variation of the Bohl offense, heavy on between-the-tackle runs. But it appears that during spring ball a bit more of an aerial bent than usual was put into the playbook in order to utilize the strengths of QB Skylar Thompson, a dual-threat who started the bulk of last season. Also, the Wildcats lost its top four RBs from last year, including leading rusher Alex Barnes (1356 YR),so it appears that it’s a good time to unleash the air attack. Ball State grad transfer RB James Gilbert, who gained 2806 YR in his career with the Cardinals, likely becomes the featured RB.
Skylar will be tossing to an established set of wideouts led by leading 2018 receivers Isaiah Zuber and Dalton Schoen. The bulk of the OL returns and should be solid again despite losing Dalton Risner to the Broncos.
Klieman is a defensive coach, and his fingerprints will be all over this side of the ball this season. Fans can expect the Wildcats to play more aggressively under their new head coach and defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton. That means that corners will play close to the line of scrimmage, and linebackers might blitz more often. Hazelton’s emphsizes takeaways something sorely needed in Lawrence. The Wildcats forced just 19 turnovers last year.
Hazelton has some pieces to work with, including all of last year’s DL led by a pair of Sr DTs Terry Dishon and DE Reggie Walker. The LB position became a question mark when Justin Hughes, perhaps the best of the bunch, tore an ACL and is likely to miss the season. The pass defense also leaked a bit last year, though the D overall returns eight starters.
It’s one thing to take a championship team and keep it going. Taking an underperforming team and returning to the glory days is quite another. Things will start out OK with two easy wins over Nichols and Bowling Green but trying to find four wins in the Big 12? That is the test for Klieman and crew. I’ll believe it when I see it.
Investors Note: One area that Klieman will look to improve is as the home bully. KSU is 4-11 ATS when favored at home.
Oklahoma – Vegas Win Total - 10.5- Ooooooklahoma, where the quarterbacks win the Heisman every day. Or something like that. Can Lincoln Riley really do it a third time? Can he take a transfer QB, have him win the Heisman and lead the Sooners to the CFP? It happened with Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray. Now, it’s Jalen Hurts turn, It doesn’t hurt that Hurts has been to the playoffs at Bama. He may not be as accurate as Mayfiled or as quick as Murray but he should keep things rolling.
There’s plenty of playmakers to jumpstart Hurts. RBs Trey Sermon and Kennedy Brooks, who combined for 2,003 yards and 25 touchdowns last season, give Oklahoma a potent duo. Sermon led the team with 13 touchdowns, while Brooks, a Freshman All-American, ran for a team-high 1,056 yards.
And while top receiver Hollywood Brown has moved to the NFL, CeeDee Lambis another NFL talent, is coming off a second-team All-Big 12 season that saw him haul in 65 passes for 1,158 yards and 11 touchdowns. Tight end Grant Calcaterra, a first-team All-Big 12 selection, is a big target with reliable hands.
The offensive line should take a step back after being among the nation’s best. It’ll still be good, and excellent prospects will rise up, but last year’s front five lost Cody Ford, Bobby Evans Dru Samia and Ben Powers to the NFL – all were drafted before the fifth round.
The defense really needs to improve. Last year’s OU D was the horrible against the pass, nothing special against the run, and ended up dead last in the Big 12 in total and scoring defense. Playing in the high octane Big 12 and having opponents constantly playing catch up skews the stats but that is still pretty bad, Enter DC Alex Grinch who knows something about being the DC for high scoring teams. He was DC at Washington State under Mike Leach and Ohio State under Suburban. Wags are already having fun playing off the the Grinch’s name but it does reflect a new found meanness that the Sooners will be expected to play with. It’s something that has been seriously lacking as reflected being 130th (dead last) in pass defense and forcing a meager 14 turnovers (120th)
Grinch has nine returning starters to work with, for whatever that's worth, including seven of the top eight tacklers. For the moment, a vet DL looms as the strength of the platoon and Linebacker Kenneth Murray was a tackling machine last year, posting nine games of double-digit stops a year ago. Five starters return in the secondary that was constantly being torched.
Can the Sooner defense improve enough to get Oklahoma over the hump. They could get in with one (good) loss but the Big 12 championship is a must. Fortunately they don’t play the Fighting Dwinks who gave them fits last year. But Dana Holgersen’s Houston Cougars is no pushover nor is Iowa State. And Texas is a dangerous rivalry game. I’m going to say no. It’s a 10 win season and the Sooners sit out the playoffs.
Investors Note: With a terrific offense and miserable defense the way to bet the Sooners is with the over. The Sooners were 13-2-1 betting the over.
There’s plenty of playmakers to jumpstart Hurts. RBs Trey Sermon and Kennedy Brooks, who combined for 2,003 yards and 25 touchdowns last season, give Oklahoma a potent duo. Sermon led the team with 13 touchdowns, while Brooks, a Freshman All-American, ran for a team-high 1,056 yards.
And while top receiver Hollywood Brown has moved to the NFL, CeeDee Lambis another NFL talent, is coming off a second-team All-Big 12 season that saw him haul in 65 passes for 1,158 yards and 11 touchdowns. Tight end Grant Calcaterra, a first-team All-Big 12 selection, is a big target with reliable hands.
The offensive line should take a step back after being among the nation’s best. It’ll still be good, and excellent prospects will rise up, but last year’s front five lost Cody Ford, Bobby Evans Dru Samia and Ben Powers to the NFL – all were drafted before the fifth round.
The defense really needs to improve. Last year’s OU D was the horrible against the pass, nothing special against the run, and ended up dead last in the Big 12 in total and scoring defense. Playing in the high octane Big 12 and having opponents constantly playing catch up skews the stats but that is still pretty bad, Enter DC Alex Grinch who knows something about being the DC for high scoring teams. He was DC at Washington State under Mike Leach and Ohio State under Suburban. Wags are already having fun playing off the the Grinch’s name but it does reflect a new found meanness that the Sooners will be expected to play with. It’s something that has been seriously lacking as reflected being 130th (dead last) in pass defense and forcing a meager 14 turnovers (120th)
Grinch has nine returning starters to work with, for whatever that's worth, including seven of the top eight tacklers. For the moment, a vet DL looms as the strength of the platoon and Linebacker Kenneth Murray was a tackling machine last year, posting nine games of double-digit stops a year ago. Five starters return in the secondary that was constantly being torched.
Can the Sooner defense improve enough to get Oklahoma over the hump. They could get in with one (good) loss but the Big 12 championship is a must. Fortunately they don’t play the Fighting Dwinks who gave them fits last year. But Dana Holgersen’s Houston Cougars is no pushover nor is Iowa State. And Texas is a dangerous rivalry game. I’m going to say no. It’s a 10 win season and the Sooners sit out the playoffs.
Investors Note: With a terrific offense and miserable defense the way to bet the Sooners is with the over. The Sooners were 13-2-1 betting the over.
Oklahoma State – Vegas Win Total - 6.5 - Mike Gundy has now spent more than half of his life either quarterbacking or coaching at Oklahoma State. He's pretty good at it. Mullet Man is coming off his 13th straight winning season and a seventh bowl victory in the last nine years. Six times since 2011, Gundy’s team have won 10 games or more. Not bad.
For the third straight year he will need to replace his starting QB to keep Air Cowboy going. But this time he will be doing it with a new OC. Sean Gleeson comes from Mr. H’s nemesis, Princeton, where he coordinated the top-scoring attack in FCS at 47 PPG. There’s a roaring QB competition going on between Hawaii transfer Dru Brown and redshirt freshman Spencer Sanders. Sanders is likely to get the nod with his better mobility.
Not only will Gleeson need to pick a QB but he needs to find more consistency in the Cowboy offense. It finished third in the Big 12 averaging 500 yards and 38 points, but scoring was all over the map. It put up 42 points or more seven times, and and yet went into funks, scoring 17 against Texas Tech and 12 against Kansas State in blowout losses.
Tyron Johnson left to become a Houston Texan, but Tylan Wallace is back after leading the way with 96 catches and 12 scores. Wallace ranked second nationally in receiving with 1,491 yards, earning first-team All-America honors and finishing as a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award. Dillon Stoner and Landon Wolf also return,The O spreads out the wealth – eight Cowboys caught at least two touchdown passes. Another year another set of fantastic Cowboy WRs.
The running game might have lost leading rusher Justice Hill to the Ravens, but Chuba Hubbard is set to explode. He's Canadian track star, with of the nation’s best combinations of size and speed, the pop to hit the home run and the hands to be used for the passing attack. The OL returns three starters with the strength being up the middle. It will be one of the better units in the Big 12 but needs to work on keeping their QB upright.
If your are ninth in the Big 12 defense optional league your pretty bad. The Boys allowed 453 yards and 33 points per game, giving up 31 points or more in nine of the last ten games. An it was strangely inconsistent too. How can you lead the Big 12 in sacks yet won the turnover battle jut once all last season. It had a mere five picks, only one over the last seven games.
Seven of the top ten tacklers are back but the entire front line is gone. The LBs will need to replace 2 of last years best tacklers too. The secondary will be the strength at CB and the safeties had a trial by fire by starting as true freshman.
The Cowboys won’t be tested to start the season by playing Oregon State, Tulsa and McNeese State. Finding 3 wins in the Big 12 should be no problem as Gundy will get his 14 straight winning season. But back to double digit wins, not with having so many holes on defense and an unproven QB.
For the third straight year he will need to replace his starting QB to keep Air Cowboy going. But this time he will be doing it with a new OC. Sean Gleeson comes from Mr. H’s nemesis, Princeton, where he coordinated the top-scoring attack in FCS at 47 PPG. There’s a roaring QB competition going on between Hawaii transfer Dru Brown and redshirt freshman Spencer Sanders. Sanders is likely to get the nod with his better mobility.
Not only will Gleeson need to pick a QB but he needs to find more consistency in the Cowboy offense. It finished third in the Big 12 averaging 500 yards and 38 points, but scoring was all over the map. It put up 42 points or more seven times, and and yet went into funks, scoring 17 against Texas Tech and 12 against Kansas State in blowout losses.
Tyron Johnson left to become a Houston Texan, but Tylan Wallace is back after leading the way with 96 catches and 12 scores. Wallace ranked second nationally in receiving with 1,491 yards, earning first-team All-America honors and finishing as a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award. Dillon Stoner and Landon Wolf also return,The O spreads out the wealth – eight Cowboys caught at least two touchdown passes. Another year another set of fantastic Cowboy WRs.
The running game might have lost leading rusher Justice Hill to the Ravens, but Chuba Hubbard is set to explode. He's Canadian track star, with of the nation’s best combinations of size and speed, the pop to hit the home run and the hands to be used for the passing attack. The OL returns three starters with the strength being up the middle. It will be one of the better units in the Big 12 but needs to work on keeping their QB upright.
If your are ninth in the Big 12 defense optional league your pretty bad. The Boys allowed 453 yards and 33 points per game, giving up 31 points or more in nine of the last ten games. An it was strangely inconsistent too. How can you lead the Big 12 in sacks yet won the turnover battle jut once all last season. It had a mere five picks, only one over the last seven games.
Seven of the top ten tacklers are back but the entire front line is gone. The LBs will need to replace 2 of last years best tacklers too. The secondary will be the strength at CB and the safeties had a trial by fire by starting as true freshman.
The Cowboys won’t be tested to start the season by playing Oregon State, Tulsa and McNeese State. Finding 3 wins in the Big 12 should be no problem as Gundy will get his 14 straight winning season. But back to double digit wins, not with having so many holes on defense and an unproven QB.
TCU – Vegas Win Total - 7.5 – Granted, TCU went to a bowl for the 5th straight year and 13 of the last 14 but it was ugly. The offense just stunk. TCU ranked 107th nationally in scoring even after piling up 97 points in the first two games vs. defenseless Southern U and SMU. Yeah, the Frogs won 4 of their final five games of the campaign last season but they did so averaging just 16 points and 307 yards per game in the process.
No one blocked the door when erratic QB Shawn Robinson decided to transfer to Missouri, but the best Patterson can do in the fall is with Kansas State transfer Alex Delton. Quick, who was the last great KSU quarterback? Exactly.
Four starters return to an offensive front that led the Big 12 in pass protection, and Darius Anderson is a dangerous back, but power back Sewo Olonilua was arrested on felony drug charges. The QB's top target should be Jalen Reagor, who set a TCU record last season with a touchdown catch in seven consecutive games and led the Frogs across all receiving categories.
The season was saved by a terrific defense, best in the Big 12. The Horned Frogs allowed just 23 points per game, was a wall against the run, and gave up the fewest passing yards in the Big 12. How good was the secondary? It didn’t allow a touchdown pass over the final three games and closed out with five interceptions in the Cheez-It Bowl win over Cal (Sorry Sheriff). With Jeff Gladney returning, the CBs will be outstanding, and the safeties in the 4-2-5 alignment should be among the best in the Big 12.
The linebacking corps is a concern after losing three of the team’s top four tacklers along with more than 400 tackles with the departures of LBs Ty Summers and Arrico Evans, and four-year starter S Niko Small. The DL will be relatively inexperienced.
The Frogs typically get off the mat quickly after subpar seasons. Patterson teams followed four previous campaigns of 7–6 or worse with records of 10–2, 11–1, and 11–3 (with a 4–8 outlier thrown in). Even a respectable 8–5 year in 2007 was followed by an 11–2 mark.
But I think this season will be another outlier. The QB situation is a mess and the defense has a few too many holes to bail them out again. TCU will be middle of the pack and needing some breaks to make a bowl.
Investors Note: be wary when the are home favorites. The Toads are 3-12-1 as the favorite in Ft Worth.
No one blocked the door when erratic QB Shawn Robinson decided to transfer to Missouri, but the best Patterson can do in the fall is with Kansas State transfer Alex Delton. Quick, who was the last great KSU quarterback? Exactly.
Four starters return to an offensive front that led the Big 12 in pass protection, and Darius Anderson is a dangerous back, but power back Sewo Olonilua was arrested on felony drug charges. The QB's top target should be Jalen Reagor, who set a TCU record last season with a touchdown catch in seven consecutive games and led the Frogs across all receiving categories.
The season was saved by a terrific defense, best in the Big 12. The Horned Frogs allowed just 23 points per game, was a wall against the run, and gave up the fewest passing yards in the Big 12. How good was the secondary? It didn’t allow a touchdown pass over the final three games and closed out with five interceptions in the Cheez-It Bowl win over Cal (Sorry Sheriff). With Jeff Gladney returning, the CBs will be outstanding, and the safeties in the 4-2-5 alignment should be among the best in the Big 12.
The linebacking corps is a concern after losing three of the team’s top four tacklers along with more than 400 tackles with the departures of LBs Ty Summers and Arrico Evans, and four-year starter S Niko Small. The DL will be relatively inexperienced.
The Frogs typically get off the mat quickly after subpar seasons. Patterson teams followed four previous campaigns of 7–6 or worse with records of 10–2, 11–1, and 11–3 (with a 4–8 outlier thrown in). Even a respectable 8–5 year in 2007 was followed by an 11–2 mark.
But I think this season will be another outlier. The QB situation is a mess and the defense has a few too many holes to bail them out again. TCU will be middle of the pack and needing some breaks to make a bowl.
Investors Note: be wary when the are home favorites. The Toads are 3-12-1 as the favorite in Ft Worth.
Texas – Vegas Win Total - 9.5 – Things are looking up for the Longhorns coming into year three under HC Tom Herman. Last year they beat Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout 48-45, reached the Big 12 title game where they lost another thriller 39-27 upsetting Georgia in the Sugar Bowl (though the Sax Lasy will tell you her Dawgs were just not into the game, she’s right) and gathered back to back top 3 recruiting classes.
QB Sam Ehlinger is back under center. He’s is a TD machine. At 235 pounds he’s a bruising runner who scored 16 rush TDs a year ago, and can keep drives alive with his jarring runs that rarely avoid contact. He also threw 25 TD passes in 2018. That reckless bent, however, is something Herman might want to curb, as Ehlinger missed the Baylor and Iowa State games last fall after hurting his shoulder by going into full Earl Campbell mode on some scrambles.
To lessen the load on Ehlinger, the Horns need more play makers. Texas was only one of three teams last year to not have a TD of over 50 yards. Ehlinger’s top target Lil’Jordan Humphrey has moved on to play with the Saints. Collin Johnson (68 catches LY) is the likely replacement.
To reduce some of Ehlinger’s exposure is an running game with soph Keontay Ingram (708 YR LY) and touted true frosh Jordan Whittington. There is a concern with the OL as only two starters return.
The key focus on the recruiting trail was on the defense where nine starters, including four of the top five tacklers, have departed. Plenty of rotational depth from 2018 remains, though the entire starting front seven needs replacing.
The secondary is full of young play makers. BJ Foster and Caden Sterns were thrown to the wolves as true freshmen, and they came up large combining for 108 tackles. The Longhorns are set at safety with 1st team all Big 12 Brandon Jones at one spot and was the team’s top returning tackler with 70 stops. Corner is a bit more of an issue.
OK Texas, show some consistency. The same team that beat Oklahoma and Georgia, lost to Maryland and West Virginia and struggled against Tulsa and Kansas. Go 11-1 with the loss to LSU and you will be in the playoff hunt.
Of course, protecting Ehlinger is a given. He needs to rely on his teammates and they need to step up.
I have my doubts. Texas will have its annual gag game (like Maryland the last two years). Young teams are susceptible to those. Put the Horns in the Big 12 Championship game but no further.
Investors Note: It’s been a good rule for years now. When Tom Herman is getting points bet on Herman. He’s 12-2 ATS as the dog.
QB Sam Ehlinger is back under center. He’s is a TD machine. At 235 pounds he’s a bruising runner who scored 16 rush TDs a year ago, and can keep drives alive with his jarring runs that rarely avoid contact. He also threw 25 TD passes in 2018. That reckless bent, however, is something Herman might want to curb, as Ehlinger missed the Baylor and Iowa State games last fall after hurting his shoulder by going into full Earl Campbell mode on some scrambles.
To lessen the load on Ehlinger, the Horns need more play makers. Texas was only one of three teams last year to not have a TD of over 50 yards. Ehlinger’s top target Lil’Jordan Humphrey has moved on to play with the Saints. Collin Johnson (68 catches LY) is the likely replacement.
To reduce some of Ehlinger’s exposure is an running game with soph Keontay Ingram (708 YR LY) and touted true frosh Jordan Whittington. There is a concern with the OL as only two starters return.
The key focus on the recruiting trail was on the defense where nine starters, including four of the top five tacklers, have departed. Plenty of rotational depth from 2018 remains, though the entire starting front seven needs replacing.
The secondary is full of young play makers. BJ Foster and Caden Sterns were thrown to the wolves as true freshmen, and they came up large combining for 108 tackles. The Longhorns are set at safety with 1st team all Big 12 Brandon Jones at one spot and was the team’s top returning tackler with 70 stops. Corner is a bit more of an issue.
OK Texas, show some consistency. The same team that beat Oklahoma and Georgia, lost to Maryland and West Virginia and struggled against Tulsa and Kansas. Go 11-1 with the loss to LSU and you will be in the playoff hunt.
Of course, protecting Ehlinger is a given. He needs to rely on his teammates and they need to step up.
I have my doubts. Texas will have its annual gag game (like Maryland the last two years). Young teams are susceptible to those. Put the Horns in the Big 12 Championship game but no further.
Investors Note: It’s been a good rule for years now. When Tom Herman is getting points bet on Herman. He’s 12-2 ATS as the dog.
Texas Tech – Vegas Win Total – 6.5 - Head coach Kliff Kingsbury sat on the hot seat so long at Texas Tech (three straight sub .500 seasons) that he was hired away by the Arizona Cardinals in the NFL. Go figure. His replacement is Matt Wells from Utah State where he took the Aggies to five bowls in six seasons. Wells inherits a Texas Tech team that was not far from having a very successful season. Tech dropped three games by eight points or fewer — two of those losses coming from the eventual duo that played in the Big 12 Championship Game, Texas and Oklahoma.
There won’t be a change in offensive philosophy. Wells’ Utag attack scored a robust 47 ppg last season (10 ppg more than Kingsbury’s Tech and 2nd in the nation overall). Wells and his o.c. from Logan, David Yost, will not change from the Kingsbury spread, it looks like there will be a bit more run game. Wells and Yost will likely split the QB duties between passer Alan Bowman who completed better than 69% last season, and runner Jett Duffey, who led Tech in rushing last season. They will benefit from playing behind an deep experienced OL that returns four starters.
The receiving corps lost leading receiver Antoine Wesley early to the Ravens and second-leading target Ja’Deion High is done too. But there are plenty of talented WRs ready to step in. TJ Vasher who caught 54 passes with seven touchdowns is the best of the bunch.
Leading running back Da’Leon Ward is gone, but he only ran for 341 yards. It’s an Air Raid attack. RBs are an after thought.
Wells brought over his DC from USU also. Keith Patterson will install an aggressive scheme helped his Utags force a BCS-best 32 turnovers a year ago along with the nations best 22 picks. The top playmakers figure to be LBs Jordyn Brooks and Riko Jeffers, who combined for 144 tackles last season. Brooks led the team in tackles for loss, and Jeffers was a half a TFL behind.
I like Wells as a HC. He will take the offense up another notch and the defense will be better too. There’s a lot of experience coming back. I’ll put the Rad Raiders in a bowl and make at least one upset along the way.
Investors Note: Wells is a most ungracious host. He went 10-2-1 when laying points at home.
There won’t be a change in offensive philosophy. Wells’ Utag attack scored a robust 47 ppg last season (10 ppg more than Kingsbury’s Tech and 2nd in the nation overall). Wells and his o.c. from Logan, David Yost, will not change from the Kingsbury spread, it looks like there will be a bit more run game. Wells and Yost will likely split the QB duties between passer Alan Bowman who completed better than 69% last season, and runner Jett Duffey, who led Tech in rushing last season. They will benefit from playing behind an deep experienced OL that returns four starters.
The receiving corps lost leading receiver Antoine Wesley early to the Ravens and second-leading target Ja’Deion High is done too. But there are plenty of talented WRs ready to step in. TJ Vasher who caught 54 passes with seven touchdowns is the best of the bunch.
Leading running back Da’Leon Ward is gone, but he only ran for 341 yards. It’s an Air Raid attack. RBs are an after thought.
Wells brought over his DC from USU also. Keith Patterson will install an aggressive scheme helped his Utags force a BCS-best 32 turnovers a year ago along with the nations best 22 picks. The top playmakers figure to be LBs Jordyn Brooks and Riko Jeffers, who combined for 144 tackles last season. Brooks led the team in tackles for loss, and Jeffers was a half a TFL behind.
I like Wells as a HC. He will take the offense up another notch and the defense will be better too. There’s a lot of experience coming back. I’ll put the Rad Raiders in a bowl and make at least one upset along the way.
Investors Note: Wells is a most ungracious host. He went 10-2-1 when laying points at home.
West Virginia – Vegas Win Total – 5.0 - Will Grier is gone, David Sills is done, and Dana Holgorsen is off to Houston. And less than 1% of all WVU team starts last year were made by freshmen, meaning former head coach Dana Holgorsen went all-in with the future is now. Things were looking bleak for 'Neer fans until they announced the hiring of new HC Neal Brown from Troy. He’s been on Power 5 program radars for a couple of years (including Miss State last year) before finally making the jump to Morgantown this year. Brown is a big-time offensive coach who gets back five regular starters and enough firepower to keep it all going.
WVU hopes to hit another home run with a transfer QB. Grier worked pretty good after transferring in from Florida. After a lengthy QB competition, Oklahoma transfer Austin Kendall was given the starting nod. Kendall was neck-and-neck Kyler Murray for the starting job coming out of spring ball last year.
The RB position is stacked with seniors Kennedy McCoy and Martell Pettaway back. They had over 1,400 yards combined.
The WR position is a huge concern though. As if losing Sills wasn’t bad enough, Gary Jennings is gone after catching 917 yards and 13 TDs, third-leading receiver Marcus Simms entered the transfer portal and TE Trevon Wesco graduated. The top four receivers are all gone.
Losing OT Yodny Cajuste to the Patriots leaves a hole but with four of the five starters from the bowl game returning the OL will be fine.
Brown brought DC Vic Koenning with him from Troy. Koenning will change the defense to a 4-2-5. Maybe it’s something he said but both starting safeties decided to transfer. Koenning is scrambling to find their replacements. The CBs are all set as both starters return. The 4-2-5 utilizes the hybrid Bandit position. Alabama transfer VanDarius Cowan will likely fill the position.
Koenning mined the juco ranks for replacements up front after the line and LB spots were hit hard by graduation. One of their finds, DE Tajih Alston, who originally attended ECU and was recruited hard by Brown while at Troy, should make an immediate impact.
The schedule is difficult. Even when they schedule a supposed FCS cupcake they pick James Madison, one of the best. The other OOC games are Missouri and NC State. Holgorsen didn’t establish much depth and there are too many holes to fill. Brown is a good coach. He will get things going. Just not this year. WVU stays home for Christmas break.
WVU hopes to hit another home run with a transfer QB. Grier worked pretty good after transferring in from Florida. After a lengthy QB competition, Oklahoma transfer Austin Kendall was given the starting nod. Kendall was neck-and-neck Kyler Murray for the starting job coming out of spring ball last year.
The RB position is stacked with seniors Kennedy McCoy and Martell Pettaway back. They had over 1,400 yards combined.
The WR position is a huge concern though. As if losing Sills wasn’t bad enough, Gary Jennings is gone after catching 917 yards and 13 TDs, third-leading receiver Marcus Simms entered the transfer portal and TE Trevon Wesco graduated. The top four receivers are all gone.
Losing OT Yodny Cajuste to the Patriots leaves a hole but with four of the five starters from the bowl game returning the OL will be fine.
Brown brought DC Vic Koenning with him from Troy. Koenning will change the defense to a 4-2-5. Maybe it’s something he said but both starting safeties decided to transfer. Koenning is scrambling to find their replacements. The CBs are all set as both starters return. The 4-2-5 utilizes the hybrid Bandit position. Alabama transfer VanDarius Cowan will likely fill the position.
Koenning mined the juco ranks for replacements up front after the line and LB spots were hit hard by graduation. One of their finds, DE Tajih Alston, who originally attended ECU and was recruited hard by Brown while at Troy, should make an immediate impact.
The schedule is difficult. Even when they schedule a supposed FCS cupcake they pick James Madison, one of the best. The other OOC games are Missouri and NC State. Holgorsen didn’t establish much depth and there are too many holes to fill. Brown is a good coach. He will get things going. Just not this year. WVU stays home for Christmas break.