Using the laser hat to make my bowl picks
Every year the complaint comes up –there are too many bowls!!
Not me – I can’t get enough of ‘em. Sure there a ton of mediocre teams playing and some with losing records (looking over at Bruce and the Sax Man cringing behind the sofa going Go Jackets!). But it’s also a time to see some matchups that you never get to see otherwise. Big time teams playing out of conference non cupcakes for a change.
When else to you get to see Mississippi State take on a dangerous Northwestern or South Carolina versus Michigan. How about Florida taking on their old DC – Louisville? Or two offensive juggernauts in Arizona and Nevada. Lots of story lines and fun games to be had.
And there is no better way to make sure you have a stake in every game and make you tune in than to play in a confidence pool. Since you have read this far it means you have a more than passing interest in football and probably know how confidence pools work. But for the accidental reader with a high tolerance for drivel who has made it this far – a confidence pool has you pick every bowl game and assign points depending on how confident you are in the pick. This year with 35 bowl games it means you assign 35 points to your most confident, absolute slam dunk, can’t happen any other way team. And one point on an upset or you just can’t figure the game out or you don’t want to jinx your favorite team.
And by playing in a pool all of a sudden that Western Kentucky - Central Michigan game has meaning (actually should be an interesting game – Western just hired that scum ball Bobby Petrino while Central’s HC surged at just the right time to cool down his hot seat)
So how to pick teams? Well there are some things to consider. First obviously is the spread. Last thing you want to do is put a ton of points on a huge upset. Putting 35 points on Purdue to upset Oklahoma State is a high risk strategy. Of course if it did pan out you would be way ahead in your pool. High risk equals high reward.
That doesn’t mean that there isn’t room for picking upsets. Bowl games are littered with them. So what should you look at in picking teams and allocating points.
Not me – I can’t get enough of ‘em. Sure there a ton of mediocre teams playing and some with losing records (looking over at Bruce and the Sax Man cringing behind the sofa going Go Jackets!). But it’s also a time to see some matchups that you never get to see otherwise. Big time teams playing out of conference non cupcakes for a change.
When else to you get to see Mississippi State take on a dangerous Northwestern or South Carolina versus Michigan. How about Florida taking on their old DC – Louisville? Or two offensive juggernauts in Arizona and Nevada. Lots of story lines and fun games to be had.
And there is no better way to make sure you have a stake in every game and make you tune in than to play in a confidence pool. Since you have read this far it means you have a more than passing interest in football and probably know how confidence pools work. But for the accidental reader with a high tolerance for drivel who has made it this far – a confidence pool has you pick every bowl game and assign points depending on how confident you are in the pick. This year with 35 bowl games it means you assign 35 points to your most confident, absolute slam dunk, can’t happen any other way team. And one point on an upset or you just can’t figure the game out or you don’t want to jinx your favorite team.
And by playing in a pool all of a sudden that Western Kentucky - Central Michigan game has meaning (actually should be an interesting game – Western just hired that scum ball Bobby Petrino while Central’s HC surged at just the right time to cool down his hot seat)
So how to pick teams? Well there are some things to consider. First obviously is the spread. Last thing you want to do is put a ton of points on a huge upset. Putting 35 points on Purdue to upset Oklahoma State is a high risk strategy. Of course if it did pan out you would be way ahead in your pool. High risk equals high reward.
That doesn’t mean that there isn’t room for picking upsets. Bowl games are littered with them. So what should you look at in picking teams and allocating points.
NIU fans are not too happy with Herbie
Change in Coaches
Bowl season is also in the middle of the Coaching Carousel. Good middle weight teams are losing their coaches to the heavy weights. Also some heavy weights didn’t perform up to expectations and while still making a bowl fired their head coaches any ways. Here are the bowl teams that won’t have their head coaches returning next year:
Western Kentucky
San Jose State
Bowling Green
Cincinnati
Texas Tech
North Carolina St
Purdue
Wisconsin
Arkansas State and their opponent Kent State – an all new HC Bowl!
Motivation
Perhaps even more important is the motivation factor. Some teams are excited to be in a bowl while others are pissed they missed a bigger bowl or overlook their opponent. If you are looking for an upset to jump you in the pool – this is where to look. Some teams that may be caught overlooking their opponent include
Florida State may be caught looking - NIU doesn’t deserve a BCS bid according to Herbsteit’s rant
Texas Tech may be flat after losing their head coach while their opponent Minnesota is excited to be playing in a bowl after a 3 year hiatus.
Wisconsin may be pumped to get Barry Alvarez after Bret Bielema left them in a lurch. It may be enough to down Stanford
Louisville could be all excited after their HC turned down the Tennessee gig to stay with the Cards. Watch out Florida
Pitt will finally have the same HC for two years in a row which may get the players motivated when they take on Ole Miss
Southern Cal had a tremendously disappointing year and may get caught flat footed by a Georgia Tech squad that nearly backed into the BCS
Location
Some people like to factor this in figuring that teams playing closer to home will have a better crowd and familiarity with the surroundings. I’m not that big on it. It seems to be a non factor over the years but if you think it could make a difference
Vandy plays in its back yard – Nashville
San Diego State is also “home” playing in San Diego
Central Florida plays just down the road in Tampa
Central Michigan will be playing in Detroit
Louisiana Lafayette plays in New Orleans
Duke heads to Charlotte NC
UCLA has a short trip down I5 to San Diego
Louisiana Monroe plays in nearby Shreveport LA
Texas is a big state but Texas Tech is playing in Houston
Same with Rice playing just outside of Dallas
And Texas is playing down in San Antonio
Syracuse plays for the second straight year in the Bronx
And Florida State is playing in Miami
And of course there is the overall strategy. Most people take the same highly favored teams and bet a ton of points on them. One strategy is to pick a couple that may get upset and allocated fewer points. That way if they lose you don’t get dinged as much. In the pools - it not the teams that win that matter it’s the teams that lose with big points that really count. Most pools have a “potential points” tracking during the bowl season. That is what to focus on not the points so far. Key is to not have your big point teams get upset. Allocate less points to a heavy favorite and you can actually root against them if needed to get ahead.
So with all that in mind attached are my picks for the 2012-2013 season. I am in two pools so I have the picks for both pools. I have also included the picks from the College Football news too.
And as usual I have included the spreads, times and other useless information.
All the picks are straight up - no spreads. That gets way too complicated!
Bowl season is also in the middle of the Coaching Carousel. Good middle weight teams are losing their coaches to the heavy weights. Also some heavy weights didn’t perform up to expectations and while still making a bowl fired their head coaches any ways. Here are the bowl teams that won’t have their head coaches returning next year:
Western Kentucky
San Jose State
Bowling Green
Cincinnati
Texas Tech
North Carolina St
Purdue
Wisconsin
Arkansas State and their opponent Kent State – an all new HC Bowl!
Motivation
Perhaps even more important is the motivation factor. Some teams are excited to be in a bowl while others are pissed they missed a bigger bowl or overlook their opponent. If you are looking for an upset to jump you in the pool – this is where to look. Some teams that may be caught overlooking their opponent include
Florida State may be caught looking - NIU doesn’t deserve a BCS bid according to Herbsteit’s rant
Texas Tech may be flat after losing their head coach while their opponent Minnesota is excited to be playing in a bowl after a 3 year hiatus.
Wisconsin may be pumped to get Barry Alvarez after Bret Bielema left them in a lurch. It may be enough to down Stanford
Louisville could be all excited after their HC turned down the Tennessee gig to stay with the Cards. Watch out Florida
Pitt will finally have the same HC for two years in a row which may get the players motivated when they take on Ole Miss
Southern Cal had a tremendously disappointing year and may get caught flat footed by a Georgia Tech squad that nearly backed into the BCS
Location
Some people like to factor this in figuring that teams playing closer to home will have a better crowd and familiarity with the surroundings. I’m not that big on it. It seems to be a non factor over the years but if you think it could make a difference
Vandy plays in its back yard – Nashville
San Diego State is also “home” playing in San Diego
Central Florida plays just down the road in Tampa
Central Michigan will be playing in Detroit
Louisiana Lafayette plays in New Orleans
Duke heads to Charlotte NC
UCLA has a short trip down I5 to San Diego
Louisiana Monroe plays in nearby Shreveport LA
Texas is a big state but Texas Tech is playing in Houston
Same with Rice playing just outside of Dallas
And Texas is playing down in San Antonio
Syracuse plays for the second straight year in the Bronx
And Florida State is playing in Miami
And of course there is the overall strategy. Most people take the same highly favored teams and bet a ton of points on them. One strategy is to pick a couple that may get upset and allocated fewer points. That way if they lose you don’t get dinged as much. In the pools - it not the teams that win that matter it’s the teams that lose with big points that really count. Most pools have a “potential points” tracking during the bowl season. That is what to focus on not the points so far. Key is to not have your big point teams get upset. Allocate less points to a heavy favorite and you can actually root against them if needed to get ahead.
So with all that in mind attached are my picks for the 2012-2013 season. I am in two pools so I have the picks for both pools. I have also included the picks from the College Football news too.
And as usual I have included the spreads, times and other useless information.
All the picks are straight up - no spreads. That gets way too complicated!
| 2012_bowls.xlsx |
Good Luck!!
