We all scooted back in our chairs - peered though the flames and settled in for a fine afternoon of NFL football.
Dobbie accidentally opened up a 21 year old scotch (I think he was saving it for a better crowd). As we hurriedly finished it off I watched as my Mega Bets went 1-1 with:
Denver +13.5 @ New England – Man, Tom Brady must hate Tim Tebow. He just seems to get fired up when he comes to town. I guess he must figure he is really God's favorite.
And what was up with the Pats defense? They played out of their minds! Brady, Belichick and the boys scored 2 TDs late in the second quarter to get up 35-7 at the half as the buried the Broncos 45-10 LOSS
But the defenses still ruled in the second half. Midway through the fourth quarter the score was 23-13. I needed three more TD's to get the over with 7 minutes left in the game. It wasn't looking good. But as if on cue - the next three drives end in TDs. Beautiful! I had my victory cigar lit by the 2 minute warning. Final score - The other Manning 37 Discount Double Check Boy 20 WIN
That brings the post Vegas Mega Bet record to 18-8.
I'll be working in out of town over the weekend but hopefully I'll get to see some action. And when I do get to watch the final step to the Super Bowl I'll be rooting for:
NY Giants +2.5 @ San Francisco - Both teams are coming off stunning upsets over the Packers and Saints. Defenses may not win championships in today's NFL but a bit of balance goes a long way. San Francisco was in "Nobody believes in us" mode last week but now are the favorites. Can they make the emotional switch? Can QB Alex Smith get 'er done in the biggest game of his life? I don't think so. The Giants will limit San Francisco RB Frank Gore putting all the pressure on Smith. He won't be up to the task.
Meanwhile Eli Manning is quietly having a very nice season. He's been in this position needing a win on the road to go to the Super Bowl. He's won before - he will do it again. The teams are about equal on defense but the Giants have the better offense - especially in the passing game. Take the Giants and split your bet putting half on the money line at +115.
Baltimore @ New England over 50.5 - Baltimore was able to limit Houston rookie QB TJ Yates last week to a 28.8 QB rating. They won't have that luxury this week against a Tom Brady still in FU mode. He is nearly unstoppable throwing to TE Rob Gronkowski (he has to have relatives in Bronson). Last week they connected for 10 passes and 3 TDs. Baltimore safety Ed Reed was hurt last week making a game clinching interception. He may lose half a step when Gronkowski comes rumbling down the middle of the field.
New England's defense was stellar last week but my guess is that recently hired OC Josh McDaniels (from the Broncos) had Denver's play calling down helping out the Pat's D. No such luck this week. Baltimore QB Joe Flacco is inconsistent but should be able to find WR Anquan Boldin deep a few times. New England will score a few right out of the gate causing Baltimore OC Cam Cameron will abandon the run game too early again - leading to a shoot out. The over has gone 8-2 in the last 10 AFC Championship games (surprisingly NE was in both unders though) and the over has gone 6-2 in the playoffs so far. I'll go with the trend.
As always attached is the Week 21 Bettors Guide.
And I have updated the www.bigbookofguesses.com website for all the 2011 NCAA Div 1A and NFL results. All you data geeks can see it under the database tab.
GO JUMBO Oct 20, 2012 !!