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Week 3 2025 - Cowbells and Pitchforks

9/12/2025

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PictureI gotta have more cowbell
They stormed the field and took down the goalposts in StarkVegas after Mississippi State came back to beat last year’s playoff team Arizona State. The other MSU QB Blake Shapen hit WT Brenen Thompson on an electric 58-yard TD pass in the final minute to send Davis Wade Stadium into a frenzy.

Cowbells were ringing across the state.

Word has it that the goalposts are in the Miss State Sports Hall of Fame, otherwise known as the Denny’s just up the road on Interstate 12. Show them your game ticket and you get a free Grand Slam.



PictureLanning later advised Gundy to keep his yap shut.
They were storming the field in Gainesville too but this time with torches and pitchforks after Florida gacked against South Florida. The play calling was Doofus level bad. The Gators held a one-point lead with under three minutes to play but in a burst of incompetence, decided to throw the ball twice instead of running the clock out. Both passes fell incomplete, leading to a 27 second three-and-out series and giving the ball back to USF for the winning drive.

Making matters worse, on the drive, Gators DL Brendan Bett spat in the face of Bulls OL Cole Skinner right in front of an official! Bett was ejected, South Florida gained 15 free yards and kicker Nico Gramatica (yup, son of Martin) hit a chip shot 20-yard game winning FG.

Okie State HC Mike Gundy has been around a long time. He should know better than to lip off against an opponent. Prior to the game against Oregon Gundy was calling out the Ducks NIL budget. “I think Oregon spent close to $40 million last year alone," Gundy said on his weekly radio show. "Oregon is paying a lot, a lot of money for their team. From a non-conference standpoint, there's coaches saying they should play teams with similar budgets."

Ducks head coach Dan Lanning caught wind of Gundy's comments leading up to the game, and lets say he didn't take too kindly to them.

​The Ducks came out on fire, scoring two TDs on the first three plays from scrimmage. By the time the dust cleared, the scoreboard read 69-3. It was the worst loss for the Cowboys since 1907. Oklahoma State's AD has been seen asking around if anyone has a job spec for a football HC.

PictureUCLA has yet to lead this season
FWIW, Michigan has a similar NIL budget but its been reserved to pay fines and Connor Stallions bail bonds.

After Bama’s week 1 beatdown by Florida State, the Tide turned around in Week 2 and crushed UL Monroe 73-0. The same UL Monroe that beat Saban back in 2007. HC Kalen De Boer didn’t say it but he may have been thinking it “I guess that makes me better than Saban after all”

Bruce has decided to stop watching Georgia Tech in the first quarter. In Week 1 against Colorado, the Jackets turned over the ball on each of their first three drives. Last week, against Gardner Webb, they fumbled away their first possession and tossed a pick on the next. The Jackets ultimately prevailed in both games and sit at 2-0.

How bad is UMass? They lost to Bryant, a team consisting of all stars from the intramural league, on a walk off FG 27-23. The game against Kent State on Oct 11th should be the epitome of futility.

UCLA may give the Minutemen a run for their money. Last night as 15.5 favorites, they lost to a bad New Mexico team bring their record to 0-3. They haven't led at any point this season.
​
I went 2-1 last week to bring the season record to 5-3. The lone loss was with Va Tech. It was looking good with the Hokies up 20-10 at the half. But Vandy came storming back in the second half to win 44-20 scoring on 5 straight drives.

The only drive the Dores didn’t score on was the kneel down to end the game.

 
This week I’ll go with:

PictureDiego Pavia thrives as an underdog
Vanderbilt +4.5 vs South Carolina – Speaking of Vanderbilt, I know the transitive property is dangerous in evaluating teams but, Vandy and South Carolina both beat Va Tech. In South Carolina's case, it basically played Virginia Tech to a stalemate on a neutral field but pulled away late after an 80-yard punt return touchdown.

Conversely, Vanderbilt went into Blacksburg and absolutely dominated the Hokies, outgaining them, 490-248. The Gamecocks got outgained by Va Tech, 336-328.

And it's not like South Carolina followed that up with a super impressive performance last week against South Carolina State. The 42.5-point FCS underdog actually finished with more yards (270-253) and almost the same yards per play (4.5-4.4).

South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers finished just 11-of-19 for 128 yards, and the rushing attack was once again nonexistent. This Gamecock team has issues on offense, and its defense lost a plethora of talent to the NFL and is dealing with injuries too. Even the special teams (where Vandy should hold an edge) lost all of its key pieces.

I don't think there's a whole lot separating these teams at all. Give me Dores and the points.
​
And here is a data point for you - With Diego Pavia at quarterback, Vanderbilt is 8-2 ATS as an underdog (4-0 ATS on the road) with five outright upsets.

PictureDarian Mensah gets to face off against his old team
Duke +1.5 @ Tulane -  Yeah, Duke got blown out by Illinois but it was entirely self inflicted. Duke turned it over 5 times leading to 28 Iliini points.  Duke actually outgained Illinois 438 yards to 423. Duke is now -6 in turnovers with no takeaways on the season. But turnovers have a way of evening out as the season progresses.

Tulane is 2-0 but last week was unimpressive versus South Alabama. They were a missed 2 point conversion from OT against a middle of the pack Fun Belt team.

Duke QB Darian Mensah, heads back to Tulane with an $8 million NIL check in his wallet. He’s going to have success against a Wave pass defense surrendered 231 passing yards on 9.6 yards per attempt last week.

The Blue Devil DL is invading backfields, tied for 11th in the FBS in sacks and fifth in tackles for loss.

I’ll take Dukes better defense and more efficient passing attack to pull out the win in what should be a really good game.

Finally in the night cap game:​

PictureSpartan fans can attest - Dylan Lonergan is for real
Boston College -12.5 @ Stanford – MSU fans can attest to the face that BC QB Dylan Lonergan is for real. He was shredding the Spartan pass defense all night. He has 8 TDs and no picks on the season and a 75% completion rate. The primary reason we won was the explosive plays of Aiden Chiles

Stanford does not have Chiles. In fact, their QBs are bad, relying on the run game to move the ball. BC has an excellent run defense.

Meanwhile, Stanford has a poor pass defense too. Lonergan is going to have a field day.
​

It’s just a bad overall matchup for the Cardinal. The only reason this is priced so low is due travel from Boston to California. But HC Bill O’Brien has 13 years of NFL experience. He’s used to these type of road games. ​

And for all the games. times, spreads, picks and much more here is the 2025 Week 3 Bettors Guide
predictions_2025_week_3_v2.xlsx
File Size: 693 kb
File Type: xlsx
Download File

Remember the 2025 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 15th at the Westgate Super Book
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