Controversial calls just always seem to go to the Chiefs The Super Bowl heads to the Big Easy in what should be a close exciting game. Now, Bills fans and just about every other fan base figure the fix is in. The Eagles will be playing against the refs, backed by Roger Goodell, Swifties, Elon Musk, Canada, Mexico, Big Pharma, the man behind the grassy knoll, even the aliens who built the pyramids. The latest in the trilateral commission’s conspiracies to control your life.
Just chill on the conspiracy angle OK. Just like about everyone else, I’m tired of the whole circus that follows the Chiefs, just like I was tired of the Patriots domination.
But maybe, Patrick Mahomes just knows how to win when it matters and Andy Reid is a better head coach than your head coach. And I hate to say it, maybe Tom Brady is the GOAT (until Mahomes takes the title from him).
So, forget about your favorite conspiracy, just sit back, grab some wings and chips, pour your favorite adult beverage and watch, what should be a great game.
What does history tell us about the game?
Just chill on the conspiracy angle OK. Just like about everyone else, I’m tired of the whole circus that follows the Chiefs, just like I was tired of the Patriots domination.
But maybe, Patrick Mahomes just knows how to win when it matters and Andy Reid is a better head coach than your head coach. And I hate to say it, maybe Tom Brady is the GOAT (until Mahomes takes the title from him).
So, forget about your favorite conspiracy, just sit back, grab some wings and chips, pour your favorite adult beverage and watch, what should be a great game.
What does history tell us about the game?
Super Bowl X - a great Super Bowl Andy Reid vs. Nick Sirianni will be the 5th head coach rematch in a Super Bowl all-time. The head coach who won the first meeting straight up is 4-0 in the rematch:
Chuck Noll over Tom Landry - Super Bowl X (1975) and XIII (1979)
Jimmy Johnson over Marv Levy – Super Bowls XXVII (1993) and XXVIII (1994)
Tom Coughlin over Bill Belichick – Super Bowls XLII (2008) and XLVI (2012)
Andy Reid over Kyle Shanahan – Super Bowls LIV (2020) and LVIII (2024)
There is a week off between the Conference Championships and the Super Bowl to give the NFL all that more time to hype the game. Andy Reid is the master with a week off. His teams are 34-7 SU, including 29-3 SU with Mahomes and Donovan McNabb as his quarterbacks.
His only losses were his two Super Bowl losses to the Bucs and Patriots and perhaps ominously, against the Eagles last season.
Chuck Noll over Tom Landry - Super Bowl X (1975) and XIII (1979)
Jimmy Johnson over Marv Levy – Super Bowls XXVII (1993) and XXVIII (1994)
Tom Coughlin over Bill Belichick – Super Bowls XLII (2008) and XLVI (2012)
Andy Reid over Kyle Shanahan – Super Bowls LIV (2020) and LVIII (2024)
There is a week off between the Conference Championships and the Super Bowl to give the NFL all that more time to hype the game. Andy Reid is the master with a week off. His teams are 34-7 SU, including 29-3 SU with Mahomes and Donovan McNabb as his quarterbacks.
His only losses were his two Super Bowl losses to the Bucs and Patriots and perhaps ominously, against the Eagles last season.
The eagles put double nickels on Washington. That does not bode well But does the bye week help the Eagles? The Chiefs, as the #1 seed, in the AFC had a bye week entering the playoffs. The Eagles, as the #3 seed in the NFC, didn’t have a bye week, playing in the Wild Card round. In the Super Bowl era, teams that didn’t play in the Wild Card game (Chiefs)– facing a team who did play in the Wild Card game (Eagles) are 4-12 SU and 2-13-1 ATS.
Eagles scored 55 points in the Conference Championship, the most in that round in NFL history. Only three teams have scored more than 45 pts in the Conference Championship:
1990-91 Bills — who lost the Super Bowl
2015-16 Panthers — who lost the Super Bowl.
2024-25 Eagles - ?
Further, teams that scored 40+ points in the Conference Championship are 3-7 SU in the Super Bowl
Eagles scored 55 points in the Conference Championship, the most in that round in NFL history. Only three teams have scored more than 45 pts in the Conference Championship:
1990-91 Bills — who lost the Super Bowl
2015-16 Panthers — who lost the Super Bowl.
2024-25 Eagles - ?
Further, teams that scored 40+ points in the Conference Championship are 3-7 SU in the Super Bowl
Ron Torbert does not call a lot of penalties but the Chiefs do well when he is the ref I’ll be watching the game with the local trivia gang so I’ll sprinkle in some Super Bowl Trivia. It’s also for you Jeopardy Jeff for the next time we get together.
Trivia Question #1 - Who was the first singer to perform at the Super Bowl? Answers below
Eagle DC Vic Fangio struggles against Mahomes. His defenses have faced Patrick Mahomes eight times — six with the Broncos, and twice with the Dolphins. They are 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS vs. Chiefs. Mahomes has 10 TD, 2 INT, 64% comp. pct.
If there was a ref conspiracy, the NFL picked an unlikely ref to execute it. Ron Torbert will be the Super Bowl referee this year. This will be Torbert’s second Super Bowl. He was the main official for Rams-Bengals back in 2021-22. The game only had six combined penalties between both teams, the lowest combined number in a Super Bowl since 1999.
That said, he does lean toward the favorite (Chiefs), favorites with Torbert are 90-71-2 ATS (56%) in the last decade, the best of any official.
Trivia Question #1 - Who was the first singer to perform at the Super Bowl? Answers below
Eagle DC Vic Fangio struggles against Mahomes. His defenses have faced Patrick Mahomes eight times — six with the Broncos, and twice with the Dolphins. They are 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS vs. Chiefs. Mahomes has 10 TD, 2 INT, 64% comp. pct.
If there was a ref conspiracy, the NFL picked an unlikely ref to execute it. Ron Torbert will be the Super Bowl referee this year. This will be Torbert’s second Super Bowl. He was the main official for Rams-Bengals back in 2021-22. The game only had six combined penalties between both teams, the lowest combined number in a Super Bowl since 1999.
That said, he does lean toward the favorite (Chiefs), favorites with Torbert are 90-71-2 ATS (56%) in the last decade, the best of any official.
Mahomes loves playing in a dome Playing in the SuperDome advantages the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes has played 15 games inside of a dome, he is 14-1 SU.
Trivia question 2 - Which College Has Produced the Most Super Bowl Quarterbacks?
So who to take? Vegas is expecting a close game. This will the 17th straight Super Bowl with the favorite laying less than seven points, extending the longest string in Super Bowl history.
The Eagles have the best team but the Chiefs have the best player. It really is a toss up and should be a tight, exiting game. So rather than predict the winner, I’ll go with an interesting way to invest.
Trivia question 2 - Which College Has Produced the Most Super Bowl Quarterbacks?
So who to take? Vegas is expecting a close game. This will the 17th straight Super Bowl with the favorite laying less than seven points, extending the longest string in Super Bowl history.
The Eagles have the best team but the Chiefs have the best player. It really is a toss up and should be a tight, exiting game. So rather than predict the winner, I’ll go with an interesting way to invest.
Which Super Bowl was this? That is to play both sides with:
Chiefs to win by 1-6 points +245 and Eagles to win by 1-6 points +255 – As long as the winning margin is less than a TD (which means OT as well, since there is no extra point) you win. You can root for an exciting game and not worry about who wins!
In addition I’ll go with
Chiefs to win from behind +150 and Eagles to win from behind +175 – You don’t even have to wait for the end of the game. If there is a lead change at any point, you win!
From there I’m going with player props
But first Trivia Question #3 - Who won the Super Bowl the year of the infamous "wardrobe malfunction?”
Chiefs to win by 1-6 points +245 and Eagles to win by 1-6 points +255 – As long as the winning margin is less than a TD (which means OT as well, since there is no extra point) you win. You can root for an exciting game and not worry about who wins!
In addition I’ll go with
Chiefs to win from behind +150 and Eagles to win from behind +175 – You don’t even have to wait for the end of the game. If there is a lead change at any point, you win!
From there I’m going with player props
But first Trivia Question #3 - Who won the Super Bowl the year of the infamous "wardrobe malfunction?”
I'm leaning heavily on Dallas Goedert tonight I’m going heavy on Eagles TE Dallas Goedert. The Chiefs will have to focus on Saquon Barkley which opens to door for Goedert.
Dallas Goedert over 60 yards receiving +126 - In the six games that Goedert, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith all played this season, Goedert had the second-highest target rate behind Brown, becoming the focal point of this Eagles passing offense. In three playoff games this year, Goedert has 15 catches on 18 targets for 188 yards.
The Chiefs this season were one of the worst defenses against opposing tight ends. They finished tied for the second-most receptions allowed (6.2per game) and allowed the most yards (70 per game). When these two teams met in the Super Bowl two years ago, Goedert finished with six catches for 60 yards.
I’ll add to that with:
Dallas Goedert over 5 receptions +155 - With 4 receptions in the Super Bowl, Goedert would join this list of players with 4+ receptions in 10 straight playoff games since the merger: Kelce, Edelman, Welker, Tyreek, Julio Jones, Jerry Rice – only Travis Kelce has done it as a tight end.
And I’ll take a flyer on
Goedert to win MVP +12000 – Imagine a tight defensive game where both teams struggle to score. Saquon is bottled up and the Eagles winning drive has Goedert moving the chains and scores the winning TD. Worth taking a 120/1 shot isn’t it?
Dallas Goedert over 60 yards receiving +126 - In the six games that Goedert, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith all played this season, Goedert had the second-highest target rate behind Brown, becoming the focal point of this Eagles passing offense. In three playoff games this year, Goedert has 15 catches on 18 targets for 188 yards.
The Chiefs this season were one of the worst defenses against opposing tight ends. They finished tied for the second-most receptions allowed (6.2per game) and allowed the most yards (70 per game). When these two teams met in the Super Bowl two years ago, Goedert finished with six catches for 60 yards.
I’ll add to that with:
Dallas Goedert over 5 receptions +155 - With 4 receptions in the Super Bowl, Goedert would join this list of players with 4+ receptions in 10 straight playoff games since the merger: Kelce, Edelman, Welker, Tyreek, Julio Jones, Jerry Rice – only Travis Kelce has done it as a tight end.
And I’ll take a flyer on
Goedert to win MVP +12000 – Imagine a tight defensive game where both teams struggle to score. Saquon is bottled up and the Eagles winning drive has Goedert moving the chains and scores the winning TD. Worth taking a 120/1 shot isn’t it?
Mahomes went to Perine to ice the game against the Bills KC RB Samaje Perine over 7.5 receiving yards -105 - Perine has gone over this number in 9 of his last ten games. He finished with 1 catch for 17 yards in the AFC Championship game. Perine is a trusted pass catching, third-down back. When Mahomes had to ice the game against the Bills, he went to Perine who came through in the clutch.
Trivia Question #4 - Who Sang the Longest National Anthem at the Super Bowl?
DeVonta Smith Longest Reception Over 20.5 Yards -110 - This compliments the inability of the Chiefs to cover tight ends. Smith was a huge factor in the Eagles loss to KC in Super Bowl LVII catching 7 passes for 100 yards with the longest at 45 yards. In this year’s playoffs, Smith has one catch of 28 and one catch of 20, so he’s only gone over once in three games, but went over this in 10 of 13 regular season games.
Trivia Question #4 - Who Sang the Longest National Anthem at the Super Bowl?
DeVonta Smith Longest Reception Over 20.5 Yards -110 - This compliments the inability of the Chiefs to cover tight ends. Smith was a huge factor in the Eagles loss to KC in Super Bowl LVII catching 7 passes for 100 yards with the longest at 45 yards. In this year’s playoffs, Smith has one catch of 28 and one catch of 20, so he’s only gone over once in three games, but went over this in 10 of 13 regular season games.
There hasn't been a 120 yards rusher in the Super Bowl since 2003 Isiah Pacheco over 25 rushing yards -105 - This is a buy-low play on Pacheco, who has gone under this number in three straight games. However, the bye week may be a big benefit to Pacheco who is still recovering from a knee injury suffered earlier this season. Pacheco finished with 15 carries for 76 yards in the Super Bowl two years ago against Philadelphia.
I’m going to pass on Saquon’s rushing yardage. In the NFC Championship game, he closed at 125 finishing with 118 yards going under. In the Super Bowl, his rushing line opened about 110.5 and is up to 115.5 in the market. How hard is it to get to say 120 rushing yards in the Super Bowl?
It hasn't been done since Michael Pittman in 2003. That was the only time since Terrell Davis did in 1998, the last RB to win Super Bowl MVP.
I’m going to pass on Saquon’s rushing yardage. In the NFC Championship game, he closed at 125 finishing with 118 yards going under. In the Super Bowl, his rushing line opened about 110.5 and is up to 115.5 in the market. How hard is it to get to say 120 rushing yards in the Super Bowl?
It hasn't been done since Michael Pittman in 2003. That was the only time since Terrell Davis did in 1998, the last RB to win Super Bowl MVP.
I'll take Xavier Worthy for my Chiefs prop player KC WR Xavier Worthy 6+ receptions -109 – The Eagles love to play a zone defense to limit explosive plays. The Chiefs will counter with dinking and dunking to Kelce and Worthy. Since Week 13, Xavier Worthy leads the Chiefs in receptions, receiving yards, routes runs, first-read targets, and yards after the catch.
Worthy averaged 6.4 catches over his last five games with at least 32 yards after the catch in all five and an average of 46. In four of those five games, he had at least six catches, 75 rushing + receiving yards, and a TD.
I’ll add
Worthy any time TD scorer +155 - Excluding Week 18, Worthy has scored in four of his last five games. The only time he failed to score during that span was in the Divisional Round against Houston, when he came up inches short on a second-quarter reception.
Worthy averaged 6.4 catches over his last five games with at least 32 yards after the catch in all five and an average of 46. In four of those five games, he had at least six catches, 75 rushing + receiving yards, and a TD.
I’ll add
Worthy any time TD scorer +155 - Excluding Week 18, Worthy has scored in four of his last five games. The only time he failed to score during that span was in the Divisional Round against Houston, when he came up inches short on a second-quarter reception.
And Conner for my defensive prop bet It’s not just all offensive prop bets. I’ll go with some defensive prop bets too.
KC Safety Chamarri Conner over 4.5 tackles and assists -152 - In the Chiefs two playoff games, Conner has played 74% and 77% of the snaps with five and nine combined tackles. With the Eagles likely emphasize the ground game, Conner’s ability to step up in run support should lead to some tackles. This also compliments the Eagles likely to focus on Dallas Goedert, Finally, Conner played 27 special teams snaps in the playoffs which might lead to a cheap tackle.
And I’ll take another flyer on
KC DB Jaylen Watson To Record an Interception +900 - The places on the field that Hurts most frequently throws an interception are thrown deep to his left and short to his right. That’s where Watson lines up at about 70% of his snaps.
KC Safety Chamarri Conner over 4.5 tackles and assists -152 - In the Chiefs two playoff games, Conner has played 74% and 77% of the snaps with five and nine combined tackles. With the Eagles likely emphasize the ground game, Conner’s ability to step up in run support should lead to some tackles. This also compliments the Eagles likely to focus on Dallas Goedert, Finally, Conner played 27 special teams snaps in the playoffs which might lead to a cheap tackle.
And I’ll take another flyer on
KC DB Jaylen Watson To Record an Interception +900 - The places on the field that Hurts most frequently throws an interception are thrown deep to his left and short to his right. That’s where Watson lines up at about 70% of his snaps.
Butker is a perfect 14-14 from 30-49 yards And lets not forget Special Teams.
Total Field Goal Yardage over 116.5 -115 – I don’t see a track meet in this game where both teams are playing TD or bust. They will take the FG when given the chance. Both kickers struggle at long FGs but are money inside 50 yards Jake Elliott was 1-of-8 from 50+ this season, but he’s been excellent from 30-49, going 18-of-20 in the regular season including 5-for-5 in the postseason.
Harrison Butker is just 2-of-5 from 50+, but 14-of-14 from 30-49. Three FGs from 36+ yards and you have your win.
And a final Trivial Question #5 - What 3 words have been on every Super Bowl football
Total Field Goal Yardage over 116.5 -115 – I don’t see a track meet in this game where both teams are playing TD or bust. They will take the FG when given the chance. Both kickers struggle at long FGs but are money inside 50 yards Jake Elliott was 1-of-8 from 50+ this season, but he’s been excellent from 30-49, going 18-of-20 in the regular season including 5-for-5 in the postseason.
Harrison Butker is just 2-of-5 from 50+, but 14-of-14 from 30-49. Three FGs from 36+ yards and you have your win.
And a final Trivial Question #5 - What 3 words have been on every Super Bowl football
Carol Channing was the 1st Super Bowl half time singer Trivia Question #1 answer - In 1970 during Super Bowl IV, Carol Channing became the first singer to perform at a Super Bowl Halftime Show
Trivia Question #2 answer - Cal has the most Super Bowl QBs at 4, - Joe Kapp, Craig Morton, Aaron Rodgers and Jared Goff. Alabama, (Bart Starr, Joe Namath, Ken Stabler,) Notre Dame (Daryle Lamonica, Joe Theismann, Joe Montana), Purdue ((Len Dawson, Bob Griese, Drew Brees) and LSU (David Woodley, Stan Humphries, Joe Burrow) each have produced three.
Trivia Question #3 answer - The New England Patriots beat the Carolina Panthers 32-29 in Super Bowl XXXVIII on Feb 1 2004 in Houston Texas
Trivia Question #4 answer - Alicia Keys clocked in at 2 minutes 35 seconds during Super Bowl XLVII. The average length is about 1 minute and 50 seconds. The over on the John Baptiste for Super Bowl LIX is 120.5 seconds.
Trivia question #5 answer – Every Super Bowl football has had the words “Commissioner", "Wilson" and "Made in the USA"
Trivia Question #2 answer - Cal has the most Super Bowl QBs at 4, - Joe Kapp, Craig Morton, Aaron Rodgers and Jared Goff. Alabama, (Bart Starr, Joe Namath, Ken Stabler,) Notre Dame (Daryle Lamonica, Joe Theismann, Joe Montana), Purdue ((Len Dawson, Bob Griese, Drew Brees) and LSU (David Woodley, Stan Humphries, Joe Burrow) each have produced three.
Trivia Question #3 answer - The New England Patriots beat the Carolina Panthers 32-29 in Super Bowl XXXVIII on Feb 1 2004 in Houston Texas
Trivia Question #4 answer - Alicia Keys clocked in at 2 minutes 35 seconds during Super Bowl XLVII. The average length is about 1 minute and 50 seconds. The over on the John Baptiste for Super Bowl LIX is 120.5 seconds.
Trivia question #5 answer – Every Super Bowl football has had the words “Commissioner", "Wilson" and "Made in the USA"
