UCLA downed Penn State and their CFP hopes If week 5 was all about great games, week 6 was all about flipping the script. Florida and UCLA, two of the most dreadful teams at the start of the season opened October by knocking off the teams ranked first and second to open the season. There is no more script to the season. There is no favorite, no dominant team, no safe bet for the playoffs. Just safe bets to not make the CFP – Penn State and Texas. They have yet to beat a Power 4 team so far this season.
Penn State lost to a UCLA team that not only hadn’t won but had never led at any point during a game. The moniker that Big Game James loses the big games but beats the teams he’s supposed to. You can throw that out the window along with the Nits chances at the CFP.
For Texas, Arch Manning, yeah, the poor kid just doesn't have it. The defense is playing lights out only for the preseason Wunderkind to throw miss open receivers and throw picks.
One team that has stayed miserable throughout the season (and getting worse) is North Carolina. The team is horrific, the fans are embarrassed and you have a 73-year-old head coach attempting to figure out college football for the first time.
Coastal Carolina is giving UNC a run for the money as the worst team in the Tarheel State. The Chanticleers are a dumpster losing 47-7 to Old Dominion. It was their third loss of at least 38 points.
Penn State lost to a UCLA team that not only hadn’t won but had never led at any point during a game. The moniker that Big Game James loses the big games but beats the teams he’s supposed to. You can throw that out the window along with the Nits chances at the CFP.
For Texas, Arch Manning, yeah, the poor kid just doesn't have it. The defense is playing lights out only for the preseason Wunderkind to throw miss open receivers and throw picks.
One team that has stayed miserable throughout the season (and getting worse) is North Carolina. The team is horrific, the fans are embarrassed and you have a 73-year-old head coach attempting to figure out college football for the first time.
Coastal Carolina is giving UNC a run for the money as the worst team in the Tarheel State. The Chanticleers are a dumpster losing 47-7 to Old Dominion. It was their third loss of at least 38 points.
Cincinnati is looking to be this year's Big 12 breakout star after beating Iowa State A team on the other end of the spectrum – Cincinnati. The Bearcats closed strong in knocking off #14 Iowa State. Cincinnati invested heavily into the trenches gains over the offseason (something I wish State would do), and has seen major gains. Behind the line, QB Brendan Sorsby is making a name for himself, dicing up defenses with both his arm and legs.
The Bearcats are hoping to be this year’s Arizona State, a breakout star from The Big 12 into the CFP.
They will be challenged by the team I picked to be the breakout team from the Big 12 – Texas Tech. The Red Raiders continued their revenge tour by blowing out Houston, a team with one of the top defenses in the Big 12, 35-11.
They are now 5-0 start for the first time since 2013, and picked up five consecutive 20-point victories for the first time since 1954.
And don’t take your eyes off Virginia. They Hoos are for real. In week 4 they stunned then #8 Florida State, only to follow it up by taking down previously unbeaten Louisville on the road, 30-27. The victory moves Virginia to 3-0 in ACC play for the first time since 2007.
The Bearcats are hoping to be this year’s Arizona State, a breakout star from The Big 12 into the CFP.
They will be challenged by the team I picked to be the breakout team from the Big 12 – Texas Tech. The Red Raiders continued their revenge tour by blowing out Houston, a team with one of the top defenses in the Big 12, 35-11.
They are now 5-0 start for the first time since 2013, and picked up five consecutive 20-point victories for the first time since 1954.
And don’t take your eyes off Virginia. They Hoos are for real. In week 4 they stunned then #8 Florida State, only to follow it up by taking down previously unbeaten Louisville on the road, 30-27. The victory moves Virginia to 3-0 in ACC play for the first time since 2007.
Memphis is the first team to become bowl eligible this year The season is almost halfway over and we already have one team bowl eligible – Memphis. The Tigers are the leader for the Group of 5 team to make the CFP.
NIL Continues to ruin the game. Auburn announced that it is moving its home game against Baylor to open the 2026 to a neutral location, Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium in return for $5 million of NIL money.
Last week I went 1-1 bringing the season record to 10-9. What was that with Air Force vs Navy. Every time I looked up they were passing the ball for a TD. They combined for 588 yards passing. That’s more than they get over an entire season.
This Week I’ll go with:
ODU is dominating this year Old Dominion -14.5 @ Marshall - Revenge games have done me well. I’ll go with another one. ODU is one of the best teams you haven’t heard about. They’re 4-1 with their lone loss being a competitive game against Indiana, and they’ve won their four games by an average of 21 points, including a 19-point win at Virginia Tech.
Marshall just gave up 54 points to UL Lafayette in OT after giving up 28 to Middle Tennessee, who might be the worst team in FBS. The Monarchs will also have a little extra motivation, as they were edged by the Herd last year despite piling up 517 yards of offense.
Ohio State -14.5 @ Illinois – Ohio State’s defense continues to dominate. The BuckNuts have yet to give up more than 10 points this season and have allowed 17 points or fewer in 25 of the last 27 regular season games. Even more incredible is that Ohio State is the only team to not allow a red zone touchdown this year.
When giving points on a road team you need a good defense. Defense travels.
Marshall just gave up 54 points to UL Lafayette in OT after giving up 28 to Middle Tennessee, who might be the worst team in FBS. The Monarchs will also have a little extra motivation, as they were edged by the Herd last year despite piling up 517 yards of offense.
Ohio State -14.5 @ Illinois – Ohio State’s defense continues to dominate. The BuckNuts have yet to give up more than 10 points this season and have allowed 17 points or fewer in 25 of the last 27 regular season games. Even more incredible is that Ohio State is the only team to not allow a red zone touchdown this year.
When giving points on a road team you need a good defense. Defense travels.
Jeremiah Smith should have a field day against a faltering Illini secondary Ohio State continues to have the best receiver room in the country, thanks to superstar Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate and tight end Max Klare. Smith leads the Big Ten with 35 catches and six touchdown receptions. They should have a field day against a shaky Illini pass defense that ranks 115th in YAC allowed.
Defensively, the Illini have basically been the inverse of the offense — great against the run but have struggled to defend the pass successfully. Illinois has been torched through the air in three straight weeks, allowing an average of 311 yards and eight touchdowns in three conference games.
The Illini got their doors blown off, 63-10, against Indiana. Sure, they rebounded very nicely the following week against USC but that was an east coast vs west coast thing. More on that later.
If Indiana can blow out Illinois, Ohio State with a better WR corps and much better defense should be able to cover the 2 TD spread.
Defensively, the Illini have basically been the inverse of the offense — great against the run but have struggled to defend the pass successfully. Illinois has been torched through the air in three straight weeks, allowing an average of 311 yards and eight touchdowns in three conference games.
The Illini got their doors blown off, 63-10, against Indiana. Sure, they rebounded very nicely the following week against USC but that was an east coast vs west coast thing. More on that later.
If Indiana can blow out Illinois, Ohio State with a better WR corps and much better defense should be able to cover the 2 TD spread.
Bryson Barnes should put up massive numbers against Hawaii Utah State -1.5 @ Hawaii – The game will kick off after midnight on the east coast. Sobriety will be the determining factor in whether I make it thorough the game.
Hawaii’s front seven is weak, as the defense ranks 131st nationally in EPA per Rush allowed. If you have some rugged running backs — or, in this case, quarterbacks — you can roll right over the Rainbow Warriors.
QB Bryson Barnes is Utah State's leading rusher, with 350 yards and six scores at 6.6 yards per carry. He could have a massive day on the ground on Saturday/Sunday.
The Aggies are flying under the radar but are playing extremely well this season for new head coach Bronco Mendenhall, going 5-0 ATS while scoring 36.4 PPG.
If they even have an average offensive game, I’m not sure Hawaii can keep up. And one other thing, Utah State is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in the series versus Hawaii since 2011
And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2025 Week 7 Bettors Guide
Hawaii’s front seven is weak, as the defense ranks 131st nationally in EPA per Rush allowed. If you have some rugged running backs — or, in this case, quarterbacks — you can roll right over the Rainbow Warriors.
QB Bryson Barnes is Utah State's leading rusher, with 350 yards and six scores at 6.6 yards per carry. He could have a massive day on the ground on Saturday/Sunday.
The Aggies are flying under the radar but are playing extremely well this season for new head coach Bronco Mendenhall, going 5-0 ATS while scoring 36.4 PPG.
If they even have an average offensive game, I’m not sure Hawaii can keep up. And one other thing, Utah State is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in the series versus Hawaii since 2011
And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2025 Week 7 Bettors Guide
| predictions_2025_week_7.xlsx |
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