The 2024 college football season is quickly approaching. The first games kickoff August 24. It's time to do your preseason homework by reviewing the new head coaches. A lot of new ones this year (28) meaning that over 20% of the 2024 Div 1A programs will have a new general roaming the sidelines.
Here's what the Big Book of Guesses thinks about the new leaders
Here's what the Big Book of Guesses thinks about the new leaders
| TEAM | In with the New Out with the Old | What to Expect |
 | In: Kalen DeBoer (Washington HC) Out: Nick Saban (retired) | Strategically, a bad career move for DeBoer, You never want to be the guy who replaces a legend. You want to be the guy after him. That said, he has an insane career record of of 104-12 as a head coach at Sioux Falls, Fresno State and Washington. He turned around a Washington program that was in disarray and led it to its best season in over 30 years and has developed a reputation as a QB guru. But he's never coached in the SEC, and has no ties to the South, The intense internal pressure at Alabama to make the playoff every year as the floor of the program would be a challenge for anyone. He won't be up to it. The bar is too high. |
 | In: Brent Brennon (San Jose State HC) Out: Jedd Fisch (Washington HC) | His record is all over the map, He went a meager 34-48 in seven seasons but he did go to three bowls in the last four seasons. All losses. His best year was a 7-1 record and 24th ranking in 2020. A Covid season. His biggest claim to fame is having done this at one of the most resource programs in Div 1A. Brennan has to fundraise to ensure his players can have breakfast in the football facility every day because the school can’t afford it. The Spartans practice on a field with broken field goal posts. Arizona has no such problems. Can he keep the Wildcats on the ascendency? I doubt it. |
 | In: Spencer Danielson (DC and Interim HC) Out: Andy Avolas (TCU DC) | Former HC Andy Avalos was launched midseason after going 5-5 and in danger of having the Broncos first losing season since 1997. Danielson left Boise State with no choice, he earned the full-time gig. Avalos has been with the Broncos since 2017 in some capacity, working his way up to DC (he even served as interim head coach after Bryan Harsin left for Auburn). Danielson understands the job, the area and what the Boise State program is capable of - and he's shown them what he's capable of. Boise will remain in the top tier of the MWC |
 | In: Pete Lambo (South Carolina SC) Out: Maurice Linguist (Alabama Co-DC and DB) | Lembo had a couple of nine win seasons at Ball State but never had the Cardinals in MAC contention and never won a bowl. Buffalo used to be real good under Lance Leipold. Linquist is not nearly that good but he will get the sone Bulls into irrelevant weirdly named bowls. Might even win a couple. |
 | In: Manny Diaz (Penn State DC) Out: Mike Elko (Texas A&M HC) | He couldn't win at Miami (FL) so why take this retread. Well, Diaz actually did win in Coral Gables His total number of wins from 2019 through 2022 was second only to Clemson in the conference and he made three straight bowl appearances to boot. Diaz can recruit and just led Penn State's defense to its best showing in years (No. 2 overall). Duke wanted a defensive-oriented coach with experience at larger programs, and it got exactly what it wanted. Duke will remain a solid program overall |
 | In: Kurt Cignetti (James Madison HC) Out: Tom Allen (Penn State DC) | It started out well enough under Allen, with a eight-win season in 2019 – a mark Indiana hadn’t hit since 1993. Then started the Covid 2020 season at 6-2 year but cratered thereafter going 9-27 over the past three seasons. Indiana turned to Curt Cignetti from James Madison. Cignetti, 62, has been incredibly successful in his five seasons at James Madison, going 52-9 overall with an appearance in the FCS National Championship and a 19-4 mark in FBS play over the past two years. He's a former Nick Saban assistant (WR/RB) who had previous head coaching stints at Division II IUP and FCS Elon. Across all levels of college football, he is 119-35 as a head coach. Cignetti has never had a losing season as a HC. Great hire. I was rooting for him to take over Michigan State. Indiana is no longer a joke in the Big 10. |
 | In: Bob Chesney (Holy Cross HC) Out: Curt Cignetti (Indiana HC) | James Madison hasn’t had a losing season since 2002. Chesney aims to keep that streak going. He was 44-16 at D2 Assumption and 44-21 at Holy Cross. He's made the playoffs seven of his last nine years. Like Holy Cross, James Madison was a postseason regular in the FCS before making the jump to the FBS just a couple seasons ago so Chesney is familiar to what kind of work the Dukes have been doing. Chesney will keep things rolling at JMU. |
 | In: Sherrone Moore (Michigan OC) Out: Jim Harbaugh (LA Chargers HC) | Moore was substitute coach during Harbaughs multiple suspensions. He kept the asterisk intact and will take the fall with the inept NCAA slaps egregiously late and pathetically small sanctions on scUM. He’s a stooge and scUMs inevitable slide back to Non New 6 bowls starts immediately. If Michigan were that good much better candidate would have been begging for the job. College football is smirking. Michigan gets what they wanted and what they deserve. |
 | In: Jonathan Smith (Oregon State HC) Out: Mel Tucker | I don't want to jinx it but this might be the best hire of the year. His lunch bucket, hard hat attitude is a perfect fit for Michigan State. He built Oregon State consistent winning team despite challenges in the recruiting department. Smith has proven that he is one of the best at developing talent throughout his coaching career. It’ll take Smith some time to build a development factory like he had at Oregon State. In his first three years with the Beavers, Smith won just nine combined games. But Oregon State’s recruiting steadily improved and Smith eventually maximized the talent on the roster. He'll do the same at MSU. |
 | In: Derek Mason (Former Vanderbilt HC) Out: Rick Stockstill (Florida St Offensive Analyst) | Derek Mason is back in the Nashville area. This hiring is a bit of a controversial one, as Mason lacked a talented offense while at Vanderbilt (though he did beat Tennessee three times and reached two bowls) and will be taking over a program that for some unknown reason fired their long-time head coach Rick Stockstill. All Stocstill did was take the Blue Raiders to seven bowls over the last 11 seasons. Mason went 27-55 in seven years with the Commodores but that was in the SEC with a school with tremendous academic standards (real ones not like those at a school we all know and hate) He won't have those issues are MTSU. It may take a couple of years to transform the program to a defensive stand out but if The Blue Raiders are patient, things will pay off |
 | In: Jeff Lebby (Oklahoma St OC) Out: Zach Arnett | Lebby has been successful as an OC at Ole Miss, UCF and Oklahoma. But word from Oklahoma is that Sooner Nation is not particularly heartbroken he left. Still, his Sooners ranked in the top 15 nationally the last two years and Mississippi State is ready to return to the Mike Leach days of emphasizing the pass. I miss the Pirate. Mississippi State will always be fighting an uphill battle in the SEC but at least they will be fun to watch. |
 | In: Jeff Choate (Texas DC) Out: Ken Wilson (TCU defensive Analyst) | Choate led Montana State to back-to-back FCS playoff appearances in 2018-19, then jumped to Texas to be the DC. That led to Texas' only playoff appearance. He has coaching experience all over the region including stops at Boise State (LB/ST) and Washington State (LB). With success at the FCS level and knowing the recruiting landscape, Choates is a good fit. The Wolfpack will challenge in the MWC. |
 | In: Bronco Mendenhall (former BYU and Virginia HC) Out: Danny Gonzales (Arizona ST) | Mendenhall did great at BYU but fizzled at Virginia. Is his heart still in it after a wo year hiatus from coaching? Its actually a return home for Bronco. He was the DC at UNM from 1998 to 2002, where he and head coach Rocky developed a blitz-happy 3-3-5 defensive scheme that produced NFL first-round draft pick Brian Urlacher. I'm not sure about this one. If the fire is back in the belly then it could work out. New Mexico is a tough place to coach. They haven't had a winning season since 2016. He will have them sniffing at a bowl and make a few too. |
 | In: Tony Sanchez (NMSU WR and former UNLV HC) Out: Jerry Kill (retired) | Ummm - no. Jerry Kill retired after one of the biggest turnarounds in coaching history, taking NMSU to a 10 win season. I could see staying in house but to take the WR coach. A coach who was 20-40 at UNLV without a winning season? Sure he won six straight state titles at Bishop Gorman, a Las Vegas high school powerhouse (the 2014 HS national champs). But that is not nearly enough. NMSU is far tougher place to win that at UNLV. The Aggies return to a familiar spot, the basement of college football. |
 | In: David Braun (DC and interim HC) Out: Pat Fitzpatrick | Fitzgerald was dismissed after an investigation revealed too many player had to go through the car wash.. His DC, Braun was tabbed as the team's interim coach at the beginning of the season He beat all expectations, taking the Cats from 1-11 to the brink of bowl eligibility. Northwestern rewarded Braun by removing the interim tag and making him the full-time head coach. Sure, the Wildcats could have tried for a splashier hire, but it's hard to argue with the job Braun has done so far. And are coaches really lining up to take on the real academic standards against the Big 10. |
 | In: Trent Bray (Oregon St DC) Out: Jonathan Smith (Michigan State HC) | If it works, keep it going. The Beavers are going to replace Jonathan Smith, a former Oregon State player turned assistant coach, with Trent Bray, a former Oregon State player turned assistant coach. The difference this time is that Smith was an offensive player for the Beavers and had an offensive mindset as a coach, while Bray is a former LB who served as the school's DC last season. Oregon State's philosophical 180 will likely backfire Oregon State was dealt a bad hand when the PAC 12 dissolved underneath them and no one wanted the program. Recruiting will take a big hit with the uncertainty surrounding the programs' future. Bray may turn into a great coach, but might not get the players he needs. An experienced head coach like Brennan or Bronco Mendenhall would be better prepared to handle the massive challenge ahead. It's not the spot for a rookie HC. Oregon State will revert to squeezing into early December bowls at best. |
 | In: Sean Lewis (Colorado OC and former Kent State HC Out: Brady Hoke (Retired) | Unlike Deion Sanders, who demoted Lewis as the offensive coordinator last season, San Diego State recognized that the 37-year-old remains a rising star. He was 18-10 in MAC play during his last four seasons at Kent State while producing exciting offenses. Lewis will give the Aztecs an offensive identity that it has been lacking. The Aztecs stole a good one. SDSU will be a power again jn the MWC |
 | In: Ken Niumatalolo (UCLA TE and former Navy HC) Out: Brent Brennan (Arizona HC) | For 16 years at Navy, Niumatalolo was a hero. Then things went anchors down over his last three years. He reportedly won’t run a pure triple option at SJSU. New blocking rules have reduced its effectiveness. Can he adapt? I doubt it. The other Spartans are back to hoping for bowls games at the end of the season. |
 | In: Major Applewhite (South Alabama OC) Out: Kane Wommack (Alabama DC) | South Alabama hadn’t had a winning season in FBS before Wommack arrived. Wommack went 22-16 in three seasons, including a 10-3 record in 2022. The Sun Belt is loaded, 12 teams went bowling last year. Rather than mess with a good thing, South Alabama promoted from within. Applewhite’s offenses led the Sun Belt in yards per play last year and 3rd in scoring. He has head coaching experience too. In two seasons at Houston he went 15-11. Applewhite is from Louisiana, played at Texas and coached at Texas, Alabama and Rice too so he knows the South. A logical move, the good times will roll with 7-10 win seasons being the norm. |
 | In: Mike Elko (Duke HC) Out: Jimbo Fisher | The hero returns home. Elko was Fisher's DC from 2018-21. He's aware of the expectations and the amount of chefs in the kitchen. . He has a reputation as a no-nonsense football guy who will bring discipline and organization to a program brimming with talent. He took a perennial woeful Duke to 9 wins in his second year. He can develop players to compete at the highest levels. Elko’s track record as a defensive mind speaks for itself and he’ll get the most out of the Aggies’ defense. A&M finally has a coach that can compete regularly in the SEC. |
 | In: Gerad Parker (Notre Dame HC) Out: John Sumrall (Tulane HC) | Not to sure about this one. Parker bounced among various Power 5 staffs before joining the Irish as tight ends coach in 2022. ND was ranked No. 9 nationally in Parker’s lone season as OC. Now he’s in charge of a program that expects conference titles. There is a bit of a fit as he comes from the same coaching tree as other successful Trojan coaches. He worked with Neal Brown (West Virginia) and Jon Sumrall (Tulane) during their time at Troy. Still, his lone HC coaching experience was a the interim HC at Purdue where he went 0-6. The Sun Belt has gotten a lot better, not sure if Troy will be. |
 | In: John Sumrall (Troy HC) Out: Willie Fritz (Houston HC) | One of the best hires of the season. In two seasons as the head coach ofTroy, Sumrall went 23-4 and won two Sun Belt championships. He has SEC experience as co-DC at his alma mater Kentucky. He worked in the Big Easy before as co-DC at Tulane. At Troy, Sumrall boasted one of the best defenses in the Sun Belt, which will make for a smooth transition at Tulane which had one of the best defenses in the AAC. Don't get too used to Sumrall Green Wave fans. He'll keep the winning going but then the 42 year old will move on. |
 | In: Bryant Vincent (New Mexico OC) Out: Terry Bowden | It's one of the weirder coaching career paths. He coached at the high school level in Alabama for a decade before becoming an assistant at South Alabama. In 2014, he became OC at UAB only to have the program shut down. So he went back to South Alabama until UAB reinstated its program 3 years later. Four years into the role as OC at UAB, HC Bill Clark suddenly retired. Vincent steps in as interim HC, goes 7-6 and is canned. He then moves to New Mexico as OC and takes the 131st ranked offense to 35th. ULM was 106th last year. They will improve. Who knows about the defense. Might want to take the overs. |
 | In: Scotty Walden (Austin Peay HC) Out: Dana Dimel | Walden is an under the radar up-and-coming coach after finding success at Austin Peay. He posted a 26-14 record in four seasons with his win total increasing each season. His final season at APU resulted in a 9-3 record and their first ever FCS playoff berth. He has coaching experience in the Div 1A with a four game stint as the interim HC at Southern Miss in 2020. He is a native Texan, and has ties to the high school coaches in the Lone Star state which will go a long way in recruiting. He should be able to gather enough talent to compete in the CUSA - a huge step forward for program that has only been to one bowl game and a 20-61 record since 2017. |
 | In: Jedd Fisch (Arizona HC) Out: Kalen DeBoer (Alabama HC) | Fisch took just three years to take Arizona from 1-11 in his first season to 10-3 in 2023 including a 38-24 Alamo Bowl win over Oklahoma. Fisch is a solid bringing a wealth collegiate and NFL experience to the job. He coached at five Power 5 schools and seven NFL teams before finally getting his first head job at Arizona. Husky fans should dial back expectations this year, however. They move to the Big Ten and lose a ton of talent. They pay off will come but not for a few years. |
 | In: Jay Sawvell (Wyoming DC) Out: Craig Bohl (Retired) | It's never easy to follow a legend, but that is what Sawvell is going to be tasked with after Bohl's success in Laramie. Bohl led the Cowboys to six bowl games over the last eight years Sawvell has been on Bohl's staff as defensive coordinator and safeties coach since 2020. His previous stops include Wake Forest, Minnesota and several other FBS schools. He'll maintain the Cowboys reputation as a physical and disciplined football team. But it's hard to imagine a first-time head coach jumping in for a legend and quickly contending for a conference title. Wyoming will take a step back in the MWC pecking order. |
Remember - the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th 2024 at the Westgate SuperBook
