Relax - Izzo's got this Are you ready for the best three weeks of sports. The bowl season is a blast with just about as many games. But in college football only12 teams have a shot at the title while in March Madness 68 teams have a a theoretic shot at winning it all. The rest of the games are a one act play. Win or lose and you go home. Not March Madness. Win and you keep on going.
And the best part of March Madness is picking your brackets. After a whole year of casually watching basketball, all of a sudden you get to be an expert with a chance to win some money from your co-workers to boot. No longer are you limited to rooting for your alma mater or against your hated rival. You have 66 other teams you can root for (or against)
And just like the annual rules for picking the Bowl Games here are some tips to stay in contention longer in your pools
1. Always pick MSU to win it all. Well, that’s more of a house rule. I always do since I don’t want to be in a position where State does win it all and I sheepishly picked someone else. Hasn't worked since 2000 but I'll keep on picking Sparty.
And the best part of March Madness is picking your brackets. After a whole year of casually watching basketball, all of a sudden you get to be an expert with a chance to win some money from your co-workers to boot. No longer are you limited to rooting for your alma mater or against your hated rival. You have 66 other teams you can root for (or against)
And just like the annual rules for picking the Bowl Games here are some tips to stay in contention longer in your pools
1. Always pick MSU to win it all. Well, that’s more of a house rule. I always do since I don’t want to be in a position where State does win it all and I sheepishly picked someone else. Hasn't worked since 2000 but I'll keep on picking Sparty.
21 of 23 Champs were Top 20 in Ken Pom including Florida last year 2. Pick your Final Four first and work backwards. Starting in the opening rounds and working forward inevitably leads to leaving you with some unintentional Cinderella heading to San Antonio.
3. When picking your eventual National Champion, keep an eye on the KenPom rankings, KenPom rankings assess teams based on their offensive and defensive efficiency. Since the model was posted in 2002, 21 of the 23 national champions were ranked in the Top 20 for adjusted offensive and defensive metrics.
This year’s teams are Duke (4 Offense 2 Defense) Arizona (5 Off 3 Def) Michigan ( 8 Off 1 Def), Florida (9 Off 6 def), Tennessee (18 Off 3 Def) Houston (14 Off 5 Def). Michigan State just misses (13 def but 24 Off). Also, just missing Iowa State (21 Off 4 Def), Virginia (27 Off 16 Def) Gonzaga (29 Off 9 Def) and UConn (30 Off 11 def)
4. Advance all the No. 1 seeds in the first round. Yeah, in 2018, UVA, not only a #1 seed but the overall #1 seeded team overall went down in the first round. In 2023, #1 seed Purdue, also said goodbye in the first round. Can it happen again? Maybe, but the top seeds are 158-2 (98.7%) since seeding started. I’ll keep on picking them.
3. When picking your eventual National Champion, keep an eye on the KenPom rankings, KenPom rankings assess teams based on their offensive and defensive efficiency. Since the model was posted in 2002, 21 of the 23 national champions were ranked in the Top 20 for adjusted offensive and defensive metrics.
This year’s teams are Duke (4 Offense 2 Defense) Arizona (5 Off 3 Def) Michigan ( 8 Off 1 Def), Florida (9 Off 6 def), Tennessee (18 Off 3 Def) Houston (14 Off 5 Def). Michigan State just misses (13 def but 24 Off). Also, just missing Iowa State (21 Off 4 Def), Virginia (27 Off 16 Def) Gonzaga (29 Off 9 Def) and UConn (30 Off 11 def)
4. Advance all the No. 1 seeds in the first round. Yeah, in 2018, UVA, not only a #1 seed but the overall #1 seeded team overall went down in the first round. In 2023, #1 seed Purdue, also said goodbye in the first round. Can it happen again? Maybe, but the top seeds are 158-2 (98.7%) since seeding started. I’ll keep on picking them.
McNeese over Clemson was a 12 over 5 seed last year 5. 2 seeds are a bit harder to predict. Last year, the #2 seeds went 4-0 in the first round and 3-1 in the second round. In 2024 they went 4-0 in both the first and second rounds. In 2023 the number 2 seeds went 3-1 in the first round and 2-1 in the next round (State upsetting 2 seed Marquette!). Same thing happened in 2022 and 2021, 3-1 first round, 2-1 second round. Perhaps the trend will return. Consider taking a 2 seed to lose in the first round and another in the second round.
6. There’s been a lot of talk about taking 14 seeds over 3 seeds. It’s getting a bit over rated. Last year all the 3 seeds advanced easily. In 2024, #14 seed Oakland took down Kentucky. But, in the two previous years, the 3 seeds went 4-0 in the first round. Overall, #3 seeds are 137-23 (85.6%) in the first round.
7. It’s been trendy to take the 12 seeds to upset the 5 seeds. In 2013 and 2014, 3 of the 4 number 12 seeds won. In 2015 that trend took a pause as all four 5 seeds advanced. In 2016, the trend picked up again as two 5 seeds fell in the first round (Purdue and Baylor). In 2018 one #12 seed won (Middle Tenn State against a team we all know and love). In 2019 the #12 seeds went 3-1 against the 5s. In 2024, year the 12’s went 2-2 against the 5s. The same thing happened last year. In fact, 12 seeds are 57-103 against the 5 seeds (35.6%). A winning bracket is going to get a 12-5 upset correct. Go for it.
While you are at it, keep in mind no #5 seed has won it all (St Johns, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin and Texas Tech this year)
8. Just don’t fall too in love with upsets. Everyone remembers the St Peters, Mercers, Butlers, VCUs, George Mason and Florida Gulf Coasts of the tourney. In 2024 it was 11 seed NC State making it to the Final Four that grabbed everyone’s attention. But it’s because they are so rare that they are so memorable. The truth is that it’s highly unlikely that a low seed will make the Final Four. Of the last 112 Final Four teams, 85 were top-four seeds. That still leaves room for one or two non top four seeds.
6. There’s been a lot of talk about taking 14 seeds over 3 seeds. It’s getting a bit over rated. Last year all the 3 seeds advanced easily. In 2024, #14 seed Oakland took down Kentucky. But, in the two previous years, the 3 seeds went 4-0 in the first round. Overall, #3 seeds are 137-23 (85.6%) in the first round.
7. It’s been trendy to take the 12 seeds to upset the 5 seeds. In 2013 and 2014, 3 of the 4 number 12 seeds won. In 2015 that trend took a pause as all four 5 seeds advanced. In 2016, the trend picked up again as two 5 seeds fell in the first round (Purdue and Baylor). In 2018 one #12 seed won (Middle Tenn State against a team we all know and love). In 2019 the #12 seeds went 3-1 against the 5s. In 2024, year the 12’s went 2-2 against the 5s. The same thing happened last year. In fact, 12 seeds are 57-103 against the 5 seeds (35.6%). A winning bracket is going to get a 12-5 upset correct. Go for it.
While you are at it, keep in mind no #5 seed has won it all (St Johns, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin and Texas Tech this year)
8. Just don’t fall too in love with upsets. Everyone remembers the St Peters, Mercers, Butlers, VCUs, George Mason and Florida Gulf Coasts of the tourney. In 2024 it was 11 seed NC State making it to the Final Four that grabbed everyone’s attention. But it’s because they are so rare that they are so memorable. The truth is that it’s highly unlikely that a low seed will make the Final Four. Of the last 112 Final Four teams, 85 were top-four seeds. That still leaves room for one or two non top four seeds.
Conference championships ,atter - right Purdue 9. That said don’t go all favorites in the Final Four. A Final Four of all 1 seeds has happened only twice since they began seeding in 1979 (2008 and 2025). Amazingly both Final Fours were in San Antonio! Putting in all 1 seeds your bracket too safe and not too much fun. I mean, what’s to brag about if you got that Final Four right. Have some fun and earn some bragging rights. Take some lower seeds. On average, over the last 21 years, the total of the seeds in the Final Four has been around 12.1. If you are 8 or below – too safe. Over 20 – you are playing without the net. Over 20 has only happened 4 times over the last 23 years (2000, 2006, 2011 and 2023).
10. All that talk about bubble teams, forget it. Starting in February all the talk is about bubble teams. Now you can forget about them. Those teams were bubble teams for a reason, they couldn’t win consistently. Bubble teams from major conferences are bubble teams because their flawed. Not so much though with teams from mid majors. They can be dangerous.
11. Advance at least one First Four Winner to the Round of 32. Every year except two since the First Four started in 2011 at least one of the First Four teams has advanced to the Round of 32.
12. Conference tournaments kinda matter. In the last 27 years, 13 national champions won their conference tournament including Florida last year. This years champs include Purdue, Duke, Arkansas, and Arizona.
13. Conversely, no team has lost its first conference tournament game and then won a national title. This year be cautious about Virginia and Illinois.
10. All that talk about bubble teams, forget it. Starting in February all the talk is about bubble teams. Now you can forget about them. Those teams were bubble teams for a reason, they couldn’t win consistently. Bubble teams from major conferences are bubble teams because their flawed. Not so much though with teams from mid majors. They can be dangerous.
11. Advance at least one First Four Winner to the Round of 32. Every year except two since the First Four started in 2011 at least one of the First Four teams has advanced to the Round of 32.
12. Conference tournaments kinda matter. In the last 27 years, 13 national champions won their conference tournament including Florida last year. This years champs include Purdue, Duke, Arkansas, and Arizona.
13. Conversely, no team has lost its first conference tournament game and then won a national title. This year be cautious about Virginia and Illinois.
Akron is a three-peat MAC champion 14. Along those same lines, since Arizona won it all in 1997, no team west of Texas has been crowned champs.
15. Lots of sometimes conflicting advice. But some trends emerge. Here’s what I’m looking at this year:
a. Starting with the Final Four – In the East – House rule – Michigan State takes the region. Don’t worry about the loss in the Big Ten tourney. It actually could help State by not having to play on Sunday. They also played #1 Seed Duke tough earlier in the season.
b. In the South – I’ll take Houston. They have pretty much the same roster as last year’s runner up and the regional is played in Houston.
c. In the West – I’ll take Purdue. The preseason #1 team is hitting their stride at just the right time. Braden Smith needs just 1 more assist to beat Bobby Hurley’s all time record.
d. In the Midwest – I’ll take Michigan. Haters gonna hate but I got to admit that is one fine team Dusty May has assembled. If he weren’t coaching at Michigan I would really like the guy.
15. That makes total seeds for the Final Four equal 9. A little on the low side but acceptable. And you saw that correctly, I have the Big 10 dominating the Final Four with 3 teams.
16. For my First Four upset I’m going to take two! First it’s a one loss Miami (OH) to take down to take down Tennessee and secons, I’ll take the high scoring NC State to upset BYU.
17. For the 14 over 3 upset – I’m going to pass this year.
18. For the 13 over 4 upset - There are a couple of tempting ones in Hawaii over Arkansas and Troy over Nebraska but I’ll pass here too.
19. Not going to pass on a 12 over 5 though. Miami (OH) got all the publicity in the MAC but Akron won the tourney and is a good team. They take down Texas Tech in the Midwest.
20. Any 1 or 2s going to lose in the round of 32? UConn is the most susceptible but I’ll take the Huskies to make the Sweet 16 along with all the other 1 and 2 seeds.
Putting it all together – here is my 2025 March Madness Brackett
15. Lots of sometimes conflicting advice. But some trends emerge. Here’s what I’m looking at this year:
a. Starting with the Final Four – In the East – House rule – Michigan State takes the region. Don’t worry about the loss in the Big Ten tourney. It actually could help State by not having to play on Sunday. They also played #1 Seed Duke tough earlier in the season.
b. In the South – I’ll take Houston. They have pretty much the same roster as last year’s runner up and the regional is played in Houston.
c. In the West – I’ll take Purdue. The preseason #1 team is hitting their stride at just the right time. Braden Smith needs just 1 more assist to beat Bobby Hurley’s all time record.
d. In the Midwest – I’ll take Michigan. Haters gonna hate but I got to admit that is one fine team Dusty May has assembled. If he weren’t coaching at Michigan I would really like the guy.
15. That makes total seeds for the Final Four equal 9. A little on the low side but acceptable. And you saw that correctly, I have the Big 10 dominating the Final Four with 3 teams.
16. For my First Four upset I’m going to take two! First it’s a one loss Miami (OH) to take down to take down Tennessee and secons, I’ll take the high scoring NC State to upset BYU.
17. For the 14 over 3 upset – I’m going to pass this year.
18. For the 13 over 4 upset - There are a couple of tempting ones in Hawaii over Arkansas and Troy over Nebraska but I’ll pass here too.
19. Not going to pass on a 12 over 5 though. Miami (OH) got all the publicity in the MAC but Akron won the tourney and is a good team. They take down Texas Tech in the Midwest.
20. Any 1 or 2s going to lose in the round of 32? UConn is the most susceptible but I’ll take the Huskies to make the Sweet 16 along with all the other 1 and 2 seeds.
Putting it all together – here is my 2025 March Madness Brackett
