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2025 Week 6 - We need more weeks like Week 5

10/4/2025

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PicturePenn State and Oregon needed 2 OTs to determine the winner
It was hyped to be a great weekend of college football and it lived up to the hype.

It all started on Friday with Virginia pulling off a stirring overtime upset of Florida State;, Arizona State pulling out a close one over TCU and Houston coming back to win in overtime to avoid an upset to Oregon State.

The fun didn’t stop on Saturday, it actually picked up the pace. Oregon and Penn State went to double overtime. In fact, there were six Big Ten games Saturday, and only one was decided before the final two minutes.  Tennessee went to overtime for a second time in three weeks. Alabama and Georgia nearly did. Illinois blew a two-score lead against unbeaten USC and then regrouped to win anyway. And Georgia Tech came storming back to avoid being upset by Wake Forest. Bruce was in full panic mode during the game.
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If week 6 is half as exciting as week 5 we are in for a great weekend.

PictureNotre Dame blew by Arkansas costing Sam Pittman his job
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For Notre Dame to stay on the CFP radar they are going to need to blow everyone out that’s left on their schedule. Their destruction of Arkansas 56-10 is keeping faint hopes alive in South Bend. I doubt the Domer faithful worry that it cost Razorback HC Sam Pittman his job. The HC body count is now up to four.

Penn State HC James Franklin has the reputation of not being able to win big games. It grew stronger with the loss to Oregon. The defense is doing its part but the offense is stuck in beaver mud. Franklin is now 4-21 against top 10 teams.

Remember how pumped Orange fans were after they went into Death Valley and beat Clemson. Short lived. Syracuse hosted another Duke and lost by 5 touchdowns.

All that gnashing of teeth about Alabama after the week 1 loss to Florida State seems like a distant memory now. The Tide are back in the SEC drivers seat with the win over UGA.

Kirby Smart just can’t beat Bama. He’s 1-7 against the Tide.

Meanwhile Florida State fell to Virginia in a classic trap game. They were likely looking ahead to this week’s clash against Miami (FL)

PictureCincinnati just put up over 600 yards of offense on Kansas
Call me the James Franklin of picking the big games. It was a big weekend of football and I came up short. I went 1-2 in week 5 to bring the record on the season to 9-8.

But better times are ahead with this week’s picks
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Cincinnati -1.5 vs Iowa State – Iowa State may be -0 and ranked but the wins haven’t really aged well - with Kansas State, South Dakota, Arkansas State and Iowa all struggling at times. Its lone road game came against a bad Arkansas State  squad

Additionally, Iowa State recently lost two All-Big 12 caliber cornerbacks in Jontez Williams and Jeremiah Cooper to season-ending knee injuries. And the Clones DL is struggling too. Among all power conference teams, only North Carolina and UCLA have generated a lower pressure rate than Iowa State.

Cincinnati is red hot on offense ranking in the Top 20 in just about every category. They just put up 37 points and 603 yards on Kansas last week in the win. Cincinnati QB Brennan Sorsby has gone 61/82 for 974 yards and 10 TD vs. 0 INT over his last three games.

And if it is a close game, news came out that ISU kicker Kyle Konrardy, who kicked a 63-yard FG earlier this season and the game-winner in the CyHawk game against Iowa two years in a row, is likely out for a second week in a row. 
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Cincinnati is looking for a signature win at home and gets it

And an interesting tidbit - ISU HC Matt Campbell is 3-7 ATS as a short pup - being an underdog by 3 points or less. 

PictureNo team defends the triple option better than a team that runs the triple option
​Air Force vs Navy Under 51.5 – Don’t over think it. When service academies play each other, unders rule. In fact, Since 2005, the Under in games between Service Academies is 47-12-1 (79.6%). With a success rate so high, Vegas predictably adjusted. To the point where we were seeing totals in the high 20s for these games.

Vegas is trying to convince you that Air Force ranks second nationally in Success Rate on offense and that Navy ranks sixth in Success Rate. Both of these offenses are averaging more than seven yards per play.

But don’t be fooled. All of those statistics have been compiled against teams that do not practice against the Triple Option daily.  No one can defend a triple-option offense like a team that runs a triple option.

Plus, this style of offense means fewer possessions. Navy averages 54.5 rushing attempts per game, and Air Force averages 50.3. The clock will run continuously throughout the game keeping the score low.
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Final note – since 2005, 26 games have closed with a total over 50. The under is 20-5-1 (80%) in those contests.

And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more - here is the 2025 Week 6 Bettors Guide
predictions_2025_week_6.xlsx
File Size: 772 kb
File Type: xlsx
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