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2025 Week 5 - Indiana makes a statement

9/23/2025

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PictureMendoza went 21 for 23, 267 yards, 5 TDs and no picks against the Illini
Curt Cignetti heard you loud and clear. He heard you all last year say how Indiana could only beat unranked teams and would then falter against the good teams on its schedule. His retort … The Hoosiers obliterated then-No. 9 Illinois 63-10 with both an incredibly impressive offensive showing and a ferocious defensive performance. It was the biggest beat down by one Power Four team over another Power 4 team this season. 

Is it too early to talk about Hoosier QB Fernando Mendoza, (a transfer form Cal) as a Heisman Trophy candidate? Mendoza’s numbers are out of thius world at the moment - 76 completions in 99 attempts for 975 yards, with 14 touchdowns and no interceptions. 

Nebraska is not there yet. The Huskers fans had high hopes entering 2025, as it was year 2 of the Dylan Raiola era, and Matt Rhule teams tend to have a history of a year 3 turnaround. But after a 30-27 loss to Michigan, it appears that 2025 is another SOH, same old Huskers. Nebraska has not beaten a ranked Big Ten opponent in over 9 years.

PictureTexas Tech did not miss a beat when Will Hammond came in
Texas Tech is now the team to beat in the Big 12 – I had the Red Raiders as one of my surprise teams to make the CFP (Mizzou was the other) and all signs are pointing that way.

​Texas Tech went Salt Lake City and walloped preseason B12 favorite 34-10. Most of the damage was done after starting QB Behren Morton left the game and backup QB Will Hammond came in relief. The team never missed a beat. The
 redshirt freshman completed 13-of-16 for a couple of TDs and no picks is just impressive stuff versus a stout Utah defense.

​
The oil money the Raiders dumped into the NIL pool to be worth every penny.

Looks like the G5 representative is going to come out of the American this year. South Florida stated their case with wins over Florida State and Florida. By the time they played Miami (FL), the Bulls were playing with house money.

Now Memphis is saying “Not so fast my friends. Memphis just topped Arkansas 32-31 in a “why would their AD schedule that?” home game. The Tigers showed some spectacular resilience against the Hogs. After falling  behind 28-10 late in the first half the Tigers  outscored Arkansas 22-3 from there.

PictureThe fans are screaming for Fickell's head after losing to Maryland 27-10
Oklahoma State HC Mike Gundy got fired this week marking the close of a historic 21-year run. He was the winningest HC in Cowboy history going 170-90 with winning records every season from 2006 to 2023. It was almost 18 years to the day that he gave his iconic "I'm a man. I'm 40!" rant. 

He deserved better than a, not even, midseason ziggy. Perhaps announce his retirement at the end of the season now and let him move on with the dignity he earned.  


Wisconsin fans are hoping for a mid year firing with chants of "Fire Fickell" during a 27-10 loss to Maryland. The Badgers have lost 9 of their last 12 games against Power 4 competition while getting outscored 65-24. Fickell got the lethal "vote of confidence" from AD Chris McIntosh. Never a good sign during week 4.

The Bill Belichick experiment is going down as an utter failure. UCF dominated North Carolina 34-9. The Big 12 is now 6-1 against the ACC.

Vanderbilt's revenge tour continues. On Saturday they destroyed Georgia State 70-21 after getting upset last year by the Panthers 36-32. The Dores were ruthless, charging to a 42-9 halftime advantage and leading by as much as 55.

​In week 3 Vandy beat South Carolina 31-7 after losing to the Cocks 28-7 in 2024. LSU (week 8), Mizzou (week 9) Texas (week 10) and Tennessee (week 14) maybe felling a little nervous right now. 
​

I went 2-1 last week to bring the season record to 8-6. The lone loss came when Tennessee, as 39.5 point favorites led 56-10 late in the 3rd quarter and then took their foot off the gas, letting up 2 TDs to UAB in 56-24 win but non cover.

And I got a huge break in my win with Oklahoma 24-17 win over Auburn. Not only was it a win by the hook but the Sooners got away with a non called penalty. The SEC confirmed a trick play by OU that led to a touchdown was not within the rules.

The two teams were tied at 3 with 10:45 left in the second quarter when Oklahoma WR Isaiah Sategna III slowly walked toward his sideline as if he were checking out of the game. But he instead lined up for a pass and QB John Mateer hit him for a 24-yard TD before Auburn’s defense could react. According to the rule book, no simulated replacements or substitutions may be used to confuse opponents. This includes any hideout tactic with or without a substitution. The play should have drawn a 15-yard penalty for unsportsmanlike conduct.

Not only that, but the refs blew another call involving Sategna. He appeared to make a catch early in the first quarter, fumbled it and Auburn scooped and scored. But the refs ruled it an incompletion. It wasn't - bad call. See for yourself:

www.espn.com/video/clip?id=46325742

A win is a win but these type of calls will definitely bite me come Go Jumbo. ​

This week I’m going with:
PictureWest Virginia could not keep up with Jalen Daniels. Cincinnati wont either
Kansas -5.5 vs Cincinnati – The jury is still out on Cincinnati. They destroyed a bad FCS team, was methodical in beating a middle of the pack MAC team, Bowling Green  and lost a tough one to Nebraska.

Kansas has shown its usual offensive mastery in nearly knocking of an excellent Missouri, while destroying the rest of the slate, West Virginia, Fresno State and an FCS team.

Kansas has the more explosive offense, the better head coach, and home-field advantage.

I don't think Cincinnati has the playmakers to expose a mediocre Kansas defense, and nobody has stopped Jayhawk QB Jalen Daniels and the Kansas offense all year. Yeah, the Bearcats will score but not keep up.

Indiana -7.5 vs Iowa – I’m getting aboard the Cignetti Choo Choo. Color me impressed with that uyeer destruction of Illinois. Yeah, the Illini are overrated but that was impressive nonetheless. Am I buying high on the Hoosiers? Yeah. Could Indiana  be looking ahead to Oregon in their next contest?  Also likely.

But Iowa will need to sustain drives in order for them to keep this close. They can’t.  In 10 drives against Rutgers, the Hawkeyes didn’t record a single methodical drive that went 10 plays.

Iowa won’t be able to keep Indiana’s explosive offense off the field. When the Hawkeyes turn around to wave to the cancer kids they will also be waving bye bye to their chances of winning. ​
Toledo -20.5 vs Akron – Playing the revenge angle here. Toledo has one stupid gaffe per year. Last year it was against Akron as they lost outright 21-14 despite being 21 point favorites. It cost the Rockets a chance at the MAC championship game too.

Toledo already has their annual gaffe out of the way losing to Western 14-13 despite being 14 point favorites. Double motivation for the Rockets to keep the pedal to the metal

And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2025 Week 5 Bettors Guide
predictions_2025_week_5.xlsx
File Size: 691 kb
File Type: xlsx
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