RJ Harvey dances a little too much While I wait for the College Footbal Championship on Monday, I’ll start making some NFL bets. This weekend I’ll take two:
Buffalo ML @ Denver (+100) - Josh Allen was banged up last week but pulled out a great fourth quarter drive to win the game. With a week to recover he should be much healthier.
The Broncos have a great defense on paper but are a bit overrated. One area they will be exposed is against tight ends. Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Know should have great games.
IN a game of quarterback Allen is much better than Denver’s Bo Nix. Nix struggled against the Raiders and the 22nd-ranked Chiefs defense. Now, he takes on the Bills, who are terrific against the pass. They have a strong pass rush and an excellent secondary to keep Nix’s receivers from doing too much damage.
The weakness of the Bills, of course, is the run defense. But if there’s one team remaining in the playoffs that can’t take advantage of that, it’s Denver. Since losing RB J.K. Dobbins to an injury in Week 10, Denver ranks 25th in rush EP. Backup RJ Harvey is churning out just 3.4 yards per carry. Harry is explosive, but dances behind the line of scrimmage too much. He can break a long gain, but takes far too many losses and minimal gains as a result.
This will be Bo Nix’s second career playoff start, and if it goes anything like the first, the Broncos are in trouble. Last year he lost to these same Bills 31-7. Denver may be better than last year but not that much better.
Buffalo ML @ Denver (+100) - Josh Allen was banged up last week but pulled out a great fourth quarter drive to win the game. With a week to recover he should be much healthier.
The Broncos have a great defense on paper but are a bit overrated. One area they will be exposed is against tight ends. Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Know should have great games.
IN a game of quarterback Allen is much better than Denver’s Bo Nix. Nix struggled against the Raiders and the 22nd-ranked Chiefs defense. Now, he takes on the Bills, who are terrific against the pass. They have a strong pass rush and an excellent secondary to keep Nix’s receivers from doing too much damage.
The weakness of the Bills, of course, is the run defense. But if there’s one team remaining in the playoffs that can’t take advantage of that, it’s Denver. Since losing RB J.K. Dobbins to an injury in Week 10, Denver ranks 25th in rush EP. Backup RJ Harvey is churning out just 3.4 yards per carry. Harry is explosive, but dances behind the line of scrimmage too much. He can break a long gain, but takes far too many losses and minimal gains as a result.
This will be Bo Nix’s second career playoff start, and if it goes anything like the first, the Broncos are in trouble. Last year he lost to these same Bills 31-7. Denver may be better than last year but not that much better.
Drake Maye is not a statue like Rodgers New England -3.0 vs Houston - The Texans have a major problem that cannot be overstated here. The offense, despite the scoreboard reading 30, is a mess. Of those 30 points, 14 came on defensive scores.
CJ Stroud looked scared. He had five fumbles and a pick. This is a far tougher matchup for Stroud because the Patriots have excellent defensive backs to go along with a pass rush that made life extremely difficult for Justin Herbert last week. And now Stroud will without #1 WR Nico Collins. Add to that, Stroud struggles in outdoor conditions, with a significant drop in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating.
The Texans won with an elite defense. The Steelers couldn’t muster a single point in the second half of the Monday night game. But there are two things New England has that Pittsburgh lacked. The first is a quarterback who can move. Maye can beat any defense with his legs, while Aaron Rodgers is a statue.
Second, the Patriots have a better offensive line than the Steelers possess. Maye won’t be able to count on his rushing attack, the Texans are fourth against the run, but he could make good use out of his tight ends. The Texans are just above average against the position, so Maye should be able to connect with Henry and Austin Hooper.
I’ll take the more complete Patriots over Texan’s team that will struggle on offense.
I went 2-1 last week to bring the season record to 39-37
CJ Stroud looked scared. He had five fumbles and a pick. This is a far tougher matchup for Stroud because the Patriots have excellent defensive backs to go along with a pass rush that made life extremely difficult for Justin Herbert last week. And now Stroud will without #1 WR Nico Collins. Add to that, Stroud struggles in outdoor conditions, with a significant drop in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating.
The Texans won with an elite defense. The Steelers couldn’t muster a single point in the second half of the Monday night game. But there are two things New England has that Pittsburgh lacked. The first is a quarterback who can move. Maye can beat any defense with his legs, while Aaron Rodgers is a statue.
Second, the Patriots have a better offensive line than the Steelers possess. Maye won’t be able to count on his rushing attack, the Texans are fourth against the run, but he could make good use out of his tight ends. The Texans are just above average against the position, so Maye should be able to connect with Henry and Austin Hooper.
I’ll take the more complete Patriots over Texan’s team that will struggle on offense.
I went 2-1 last week to bring the season record to 39-37
