The 2025 draft intrigue starts at 5 with Jacksonville. Do they take Jeanty? or a DL? The NFL Draft comes to Title Town. And I can’t make it. A chance to get two items off my bucket list, a trip to Lambeau and go to the draft. And once again, I'll be working and watching from a local watering hole. Maybe next year.....
But I will have fun downing some adult beverages and seeing if my predictions pay off.
This is one of the weakest NFL Drafts in the last 10 years, and the data we are receiving backs that up. You have just one blue-chip player, Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter; a clear No. 1 quarterback (Miami’s Cam Ward) then a big gap to No. 2.
The rest of the first round candidates are all at non-premium positions like tight end, running back and interior defensive line. The best offensive linemen all have major question marks, and the top wide receiver this year would be WR5 in last year’s draft.
But I will have fun downing some adult beverages and seeing if my predictions pay off.
This is one of the weakest NFL Drafts in the last 10 years, and the data we are receiving backs that up. You have just one blue-chip player, Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter; a clear No. 1 quarterback (Miami’s Cam Ward) then a big gap to No. 2.
The rest of the first round candidates are all at non-premium positions like tight end, running back and interior defensive line. The best offensive linemen all have major question marks, and the top wide receiver this year would be WR5 in last year’s draft.
The consensus is that Cam Ward will be the overall #1 pick in 2025 Further evidence of the weakness of the draft - every team owns its first-round pick. There hasn't been one trade. No one wants to give up future draft capital or later-round picks to take underwhelming talent. That doesn't mean that money can't be made. There will ultimately be 32 first round draft picks. Guessing them correctly can be very profitable.
After doing my home work, I did the following investments:
Not much profit in the first four picks though - they are pretty much locked in:
1. Tennessee - Cam Ward QB Miami (FL) at -20000
2. Cleveland - Travis Hunter CB/WR (likely as CB) Colorado -800
3. NY Giants - Abdul Carter OLB Penn State -600 and
4. New England - Will Campbell OT LSU -380.
The fun begins at 5 with Jacksonville. The prognosticators and Vegas think it will be Ashton Jeanty RB from Boise State but at just +125.
That means there are doubts. Do you really take an RB that high? Or, with Trevor Lawrence struggling, will Jeanty give him a weapon to get him into positions where he doesn’t need to put everything on his shoulders. I’m going to pass here. The payoff is intriguing but not quite enough. New Orleans could go with a DL (they need just about everything) or trade back.
After doing my home work, I did the following investments:
Not much profit in the first four picks though - they are pretty much locked in:
1. Tennessee - Cam Ward QB Miami (FL) at -20000
2. Cleveland - Travis Hunter CB/WR (likely as CB) Colorado -800
3. NY Giants - Abdul Carter OLB Penn State -600 and
4. New England - Will Campbell OT LSU -380.
The fun begins at 5 with Jacksonville. The prognosticators and Vegas think it will be Ashton Jeanty RB from Boise State but at just +125.
That means there are doubts. Do you really take an RB that high? Or, with Trevor Lawrence struggling, will Jeanty give him a weapon to get him into positions where he doesn’t need to put everything on his shoulders. I’m going to pass here. The payoff is intriguing but not quite enough. New Orleans could go with a DL (they need just about everything) or trade back.
My first pick is Armand Membou from Missouri to Las Vegas at 6 For my first position pick I’ll go with Armand Membou OT Missouri at 6 to Las Vegas. New GM John Spytek likes to rebuild from the trenches. He returns +210 if selected under 6.5.
My other player picks are:
Jahdae Barron CB Texas over 18.5 +130 - He may go to Arizona at 16 but I think he falls to Minnesota at 24
Malakai Starks S Georgia under 23.5 +155 - I have him to Miami at 13 but have seen him as far down as 30 to Buffalo
Matthew Golden WR Texas over 17.5 +130 - He seems to be a lock at 23 to Green Bay
For position picks by team I have:
Pick Position Odds
9 New Orleans take DL first +115 - Likely Mykel Williams DE Georgia
10 Chicago to draft TE first +250 - Either Colston Loveland TE Michigan or Tyler Warren TE Penn State
11 San Francisco to draft OL first +180 - Niners may go DL here but I think they will take Kelvin Banks OT/G Texas
13 Miami to draft Safety first +600 - Doubling down on Starks here. Nice payoff
14 Indianapolis to draft TE first +100 - They take the TE that Chicago doesn't
16 Arizona to draft CB first +300 - Either Jahdae Barron CB Texas or Will Johnson CB Michigan
17 Cincinnati to draft Safety first +600 - Bengals may go with a Edge rusher here but I think it will be Nick Emmanwori S South Carolina
19 Tampa Bay to draft LB first +190 - If they Cards don't take a WR I think they will go with Jahaad Campbell LB Alabama
21 Pittsburgh to draft DL first +140 - Some are saying Shedeur Sanders QB Colorado here but I don't think so. Thinking Derrick Harmon DT Oregon
22 LA Chargers to draft DE first +125 - Likely Kenneth Grant DT Michigan
23 Green Bay to draft WR first +300 - Counting on Matthew Grant WR Texas
24 Minnesota to draft CB first +200 - RB maybe but more likely whichever CB Arizona doesn't take between Barron and Johnson
26 LA Rams to draft CB first +225 - Maxwell Hairston CB Kentucky is the next best after Johnson and Barron
28 Detroit to draft OL first +270 - The CBs are gone by now so Lions take Tyler Booker G Alabama and move Glasgow to C/G backup
29 Washington to draft WR first +500 - Most have Washington to go with DL but I'll take a flyer on Emeka Egbuka WR Ohio State
30 Buffalo to draft CB first +200 - Maybe Malkai Starks S Georgia but I'm going with Trey Amos CB Mississippi
My other player picks are:
Jahdae Barron CB Texas over 18.5 +130 - He may go to Arizona at 16 but I think he falls to Minnesota at 24
Malakai Starks S Georgia under 23.5 +155 - I have him to Miami at 13 but have seen him as far down as 30 to Buffalo
Matthew Golden WR Texas over 17.5 +130 - He seems to be a lock at 23 to Green Bay
For position picks by team I have:
Pick Position Odds
9 New Orleans take DL first +115 - Likely Mykel Williams DE Georgia
10 Chicago to draft TE first +250 - Either Colston Loveland TE Michigan or Tyler Warren TE Penn State
11 San Francisco to draft OL first +180 - Niners may go DL here but I think they will take Kelvin Banks OT/G Texas
13 Miami to draft Safety first +600 - Doubling down on Starks here. Nice payoff
14 Indianapolis to draft TE first +100 - They take the TE that Chicago doesn't
16 Arizona to draft CB first +300 - Either Jahdae Barron CB Texas or Will Johnson CB Michigan
17 Cincinnati to draft Safety first +600 - Bengals may go with a Edge rusher here but I think it will be Nick Emmanwori S South Carolina
19 Tampa Bay to draft LB first +190 - If they Cards don't take a WR I think they will go with Jahaad Campbell LB Alabama
21 Pittsburgh to draft DL first +140 - Some are saying Shedeur Sanders QB Colorado here but I don't think so. Thinking Derrick Harmon DT Oregon
22 LA Chargers to draft DE first +125 - Likely Kenneth Grant DT Michigan
23 Green Bay to draft WR first +300 - Counting on Matthew Grant WR Texas
24 Minnesota to draft CB first +200 - RB maybe but more likely whichever CB Arizona doesn't take between Barron and Johnson
26 LA Rams to draft CB first +225 - Maxwell Hairston CB Kentucky is the next best after Johnson and Barron
28 Detroit to draft OL first +270 - The CBs are gone by now so Lions take Tyler Booker G Alabama and move Glasgow to C/G backup
29 Washington to draft WR first +500 - Most have Washington to go with DL but I'll take a flyer on Emeka Egbuka WR Ohio State
30 Buffalo to draft CB first +200 - Maybe Malkai Starks S Georgia but I'm going with Trey Amos CB Mississippi
I'm going with Chicago to take Tyler Warren over Colston Loveland I’ll go with some prop bets too.
Will Trey Amos CB Mississippi go in the first round? yes at +130. Doubling down with him to Buffalo at 30
Who will draft Tyler Warren TE Penn State? I’ll take him to Chicago at +290 ahead of Loveland from Michigan
Who will be drafted first Emeka Egbuka WR Ohio State or Donovan Ezeirauka OLB Boston College? I’ll take Egbuka at +105 going at 29 ahead of Ezeiruka at 32 to Philadelphia
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Who will be drafted first Josh Simmons OT Ohio State or Walter Nolen DT Mississippi? I’ll take Simmons at +190 in the 1st round, Nolen in round 2
Will Trey Amos CB Mississippi go in the first round? yes at +130. Doubling down with him to Buffalo at 30
Who will draft Tyler Warren TE Penn State? I’ll take him to Chicago at +290 ahead of Loveland from Michigan
Who will be drafted first Emeka Egbuka WR Ohio State or Donovan Ezeirauka OLB Boston College? I’ll take Egbuka at +105 going at 29 ahead of Ezeiruka at 32 to Philadelphia
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Who will be drafted first Josh Simmons OT Ohio State or Walter Nolen DT Mississippi? I’ll take Simmons at +190 in the 1st round, Nolen in round 2
Emeka Egbuka is a safe pick at WR and stays in the 1st round And finally some overall first round wagers. Total QBs taken in the first round – I’ll go under 2.5 at +105. Counting on Sanders and Dart staying out of the 1st round
And total Big Ten players in the first round – I’ll go over 9.5 at +120. I count 4 from Michigan, 2 each from Penn State, Oregon and Ohio State and 1 from UCLA for a total of 11. Room to spare.
I'm taking some real flyers here. If only a few pay off it will be a profitable night. Then again, disaster could strike with a few trades and teams falling in love with certain players. It's what makes the draft so much fun!
And all these investments are made on who I think teams will take not necessarily who they should take. That will part of the next Big Book of Guesses update.
And total Big Ten players in the first round – I’ll go over 9.5 at +120. I count 4 from Michigan, 2 each from Penn State, Oregon and Ohio State and 1 from UCLA for a total of 11. Room to spare.
I'm taking some real flyers here. If only a few pay off it will be a profitable night. Then again, disaster could strike with a few trades and teams falling in love with certain players. It's what makes the draft so much fun!
And all these investments are made on who I think teams will take not necessarily who they should take. That will part of the next Big Book of Guesses update.
