Forget the Logos It’s the final act of a great play. Indiana has risen from the losingest college football team of all time to the cusp of a national championship. A run, two years In the making. The first year a shock to college football. The second year – sustained excellence and total domination. Year one was not a fluke, rather a proof of concept.
How did they do it? Not by “owning the portal”, nor emptying the vault on NIL. Your four and five stars mean nothing to Cignetti. Rather, it’s fanatical attention to detail, working as a team, doing your job and a total belief that your goals are achievable.
I don’t mean to dismiss Miami (FL). Cristobal has been dismissed far too often. He’s tough like the former OL he was at Miami. Miami has been stubbornly unbreakable in tight games For two and a half years the Canes have not lost by more than a TD.
Cristobal has built a team using a tried and true method, recruiting at the highest levels and using NIL to nab a few missing pieces like Carson Beck
But he is about to run into juggernaut, a unified team that eliminates mistakes while slowly strangling any hope of you winning.
So for the last picks of the 2025 College Football season I’ll go with:
How did they do it? Not by “owning the portal”, nor emptying the vault on NIL. Your four and five stars mean nothing to Cignetti. Rather, it’s fanatical attention to detail, working as a team, doing your job and a total belief that your goals are achievable.
I don’t mean to dismiss Miami (FL). Cristobal has been dismissed far too often. He’s tough like the former OL he was at Miami. Miami has been stubbornly unbreakable in tight games For two and a half years the Canes have not lost by more than a TD.
Cristobal has built a team using a tried and true method, recruiting at the highest levels and using NIL to nab a few missing pieces like Carson Beck
But he is about to run into juggernaut, a unified team that eliminates mistakes while slowly strangling any hope of you winning.
So for the last picks of the 2025 College Football season I’ll go with:
Mendoza settled the debate about the #1 pick in the draft Indiana -7.5 vs Miami (FL) – Yes the spread is high but I don’t believe the market has truly grasped how good this Indiana team is. Much like the 2019 LSU team, bettors are dismissing what they see, a truly remarkable team. They are still looking at the logos and not the teams.
Fernando Mendoza settled who was the #1 draft pick last week when Dante Moore melted down and Mendoza dominated. But it wasn’t that long ago that Carson Beck was considered the #1 QB in college ball. You could argue that the two QBs in this game are better than the remaining QBs in the playoffs (OK, I’ll spot you Stafford but Sam Darnold or Jarrett Stidham anyone?)
Beck fell off the pace because he can get sloppy with the ball. He threw four picks in the loss to Louisville and two in the loss to SMU.
Fernando Mendoza settled who was the #1 draft pick last week when Dante Moore melted down and Mendoza dominated. But it wasn’t that long ago that Carson Beck was considered the #1 QB in college ball. You could argue that the two QBs in this game are better than the remaining QBs in the playoffs (OK, I’ll spot you Stafford but Sam Darnold or Jarrett Stidham anyone?)
Beck fell off the pace because he can get sloppy with the ball. He threw four picks in the loss to Louisville and two in the loss to SMU.
Carter Smith has not allowed a sack all season Talent-wise, the Miami starting 22 is probably better than Indiana's starting 22. But the Hoosiers are a senior led team that doesn’t make mistakes. They do all of the little things right and avoid all of the self-inflicted wounds (penalties, turnovers, etc.). Indiana plays as disciplined as a service academy. Only Army (21.9) has fewer penalty yards per game this season than Indiana. That could spell trouble for a Miami team that has struggled with discipline ranking 85th with 57.1 penalty yards per contest.
Indiana has forced 19 takeaways in the last eight games and is +14 in turnover margin.
Much has been made of Miami’s vaunted DL and its edge rushers Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor. Bain produced just one sack in the past two games against the blindside tackles of Ohio State and Ole Miss. Mesidor, meanwhile, has been a one-man Havoc crew, generating 19 pressures and three sacks in three playoff wins.
But Bain and Mesidor will face an Indiana offensive line that's top-20 in pass blocking. Blindside Hoosier OT Carter Smith hasn't allowed a sack all season, giving up just single pressure over the past five games.
Indiana has forced 19 takeaways in the last eight games and is +14 in turnover margin.
Much has been made of Miami’s vaunted DL and its edge rushers Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor. Bain produced just one sack in the past two games against the blindside tackles of Ohio State and Ole Miss. Mesidor, meanwhile, has been a one-man Havoc crew, generating 19 pressures and three sacks in three playoff wins.
But Bain and Mesidor will face an Indiana offensive line that's top-20 in pass blocking. Blindside Hoosier OT Carter Smith hasn't allowed a sack all season, giving up just single pressure over the past five games.
Bottom line - who is better - Cignetti or Cristobal Bottom line - Indiana has been brilliant during the College Football Playoff. It completely dismantled Alabama and Oregon by a combined score of 94-25 (which includes a meaningless last-second touchdown by the Ducks) Meanwhile, Miami had to survive a pair of late scares against both Texas A&M and Ole Miss to advance in games where it was either tied or trailing at the two-minute timeout.
And the trend is your friend. Favorites have won and covered each of the last six National Championship games, dating back to 2019 LSU. Even if you remove 2022 Georgia’s 65-7 pounding of TCU, the average margin of victory for favorites over this run is 18.4 points; Ohio State’s 34-23 win over Notre Dame last season was the closest result.
And when it really comes down to it, who do you want to back Cignetti or Cristobal?
Xavier Lucas is out the first half for targeting Indiana 1st half -4.5 vs Miami (FL) - The Indiana Hoosiers' formula this year: shock and awe. Thanks to a handful of Oregon turnovers, Indiana jumped out to a 35-7 halftime lead and never surrendered. The game before, against Bama, it was a 17-0 halftime jump.
Indiana ranks as the top team in the "Middle 8," defined as the last four minutes of the second quarter and the first four minutes of the third quarter. Cignetti’s team has averaged a scoring differential of +5.3 at the end of the second quarter and +1.2 at the beginning of the third quarter.
And don’t forget, starting Cane CB Xavier Lucas will miss the first half of the game due to a targeting call in the semifinals.
Mendoza rightfully gets the headlines with eight touchdown passes and only five incompletions combined in the two playoff games.
Indiana ranks as the top team in the "Middle 8," defined as the last four minutes of the second quarter and the first four minutes of the third quarter. Cignetti’s team has averaged a scoring differential of +5.3 at the end of the second quarter and +1.2 at the beginning of the third quarter.
And don’t forget, starting Cane CB Xavier Lucas will miss the first half of the game due to a targeting call in the semifinals.
Mendoza rightfully gets the headlines with eight touchdown passes and only five incompletions combined in the two playoff games.
Indiana scored a pick 6 to open the game against Oregon Indiana Team Total over 27.5 points - The Hoosiers have scored 38 and 56 points in their two CFP bowl games and are the No. 2 scoring offense (42.6 ppg) in the nation. That number is even more astonishing when you consider that they rank just 112th in pace.
Mendoza has faced this defense before. In 2024, while at Cal he scored 38 points and 7.6 yards per play. Now he is playing with a much better team and saving his best stats for the playoffs. In the first two CFP games, he threw more touchdown passes (eight) than incompletions (five).
And don’t forget, the total includes defensive scores as well. Plus, the Hoosiers could be playing with a short field. In five of the last 11 games, Indiana has recorded a pick on the opponents first drive including the Big Ten Championship game and last week against Oregon.
Mendoza has faced this defense before. In 2024, while at Cal he scored 38 points and 7.6 yards per play. Now he is playing with a much better team and saving his best stats for the playoffs. In the first two CFP games, he threw more touchdown passes (eight) than incompletions (five).
And don’t forget, the total includes defensive scores as well. Plus, the Hoosiers could be playing with a short field. In five of the last 11 games, Indiana has recorded a pick on the opponents first drive including the Big Ten Championship game and last week against Oregon.
The Waffle House is always open Head to head Receiving Yards – Indiana WR Elijah Sarratt over Miami (FL) WR Malachi Toney (+115) – No doubt, Malachi Toney is electric, but Toney, despite his talent, is becoming vulnerable.
The tougher the competition has gotten, the harder it has been for Toney to generate separation. Opposing teams in these playoffs have zeroed in on Toney, essentially taking him out of the game.
Ole Miss let up a 36-yard touchdown to Toney on a screen pass in the semifinals, which may be the only real way Toney gets to make a difference. No one runs more screen plays than Miami (118 total this season). However, Indiana’s defense is one of the better tackling teams in the country and will be prepared for this.
Given all those factors, I don’t foresee Toney making a major impact on this game. I think Indiana will be glued to him, mostly putting two defenders on him at all times, forcing Carson Beck to look toward Keelan Marion or CJ Daniels.
Waffle House. Always Open. That’s the nickname that Elijah Sarratt has earned.
Omar Cooper Jr. and Charlie Becker have had fantastic seasons, but there’s nobody Fernando Mendoza trusts more in big moments than Sarratt.
He can beat man coverage regularly, and he also knows how to find the open spots on the field. The senior has gone for 60-plus yards in six of the eleven games he’s been healthy this season. In the five he wasn't, it was due to limited second playing time with Indiana holding big leads.
I went 1-1 last week to bring the season record to 40-38.
The tougher the competition has gotten, the harder it has been for Toney to generate separation. Opposing teams in these playoffs have zeroed in on Toney, essentially taking him out of the game.
Ole Miss let up a 36-yard touchdown to Toney on a screen pass in the semifinals, which may be the only real way Toney gets to make a difference. No one runs more screen plays than Miami (118 total this season). However, Indiana’s defense is one of the better tackling teams in the country and will be prepared for this.
Given all those factors, I don’t foresee Toney making a major impact on this game. I think Indiana will be glued to him, mostly putting two defenders on him at all times, forcing Carson Beck to look toward Keelan Marion or CJ Daniels.
Waffle House. Always Open. That’s the nickname that Elijah Sarratt has earned.
Omar Cooper Jr. and Charlie Becker have had fantastic seasons, but there’s nobody Fernando Mendoza trusts more in big moments than Sarratt.
He can beat man coverage regularly, and he also knows how to find the open spots on the field. The senior has gone for 60-plus yards in six of the eleven games he’s been healthy this season. In the five he wasn't, it was due to limited second playing time with Indiana holding big leads.
I went 1-1 last week to bring the season record to 40-38.
