Texas Tech's 11-1 ATS record is best in the nation After a great Rivalry Week comes Championship Week. A tradition started by the SEC in 1992 and quickly spread across all conferences (except you Notre Dame, you decided to sit these out) How long it will last in the era of expanded CFP playoffs is anyone’s guess. But there is still lot of money in these games so it could be awhile.
If good teams win and great teams cover, we have plenty of great teams in action this weekend. 11 of the 18 teams on the slate finished at 8-4 ATS or better:
The only teams that failed to reach at least .500 against the number include:
If good teams win and great teams cover, we have plenty of great teams in action this weekend. 11 of the 18 teams on the slate finished at 8-4 ATS or better:
- Texas Tech: 11-1 ATS (best in nation)
- Ohio State: 10-1-1 ATS
- North Texas: 10-2 ATS
- BYU: 9-3 ATS
- Alabama: 8-3-1 ATS
- Western Michigan: 8-3-1 ATS
- Miami (Ohio): 8-4 ATS
- James Madison: 8-4 ATS
- Troy: 8-4 ATS
- Virginia: 8-4 ATS
- Kennesaw: 8-4 ATS
The only teams that failed to reach at least .500 against the number include:
- Tulane: 5-6-1 ATS
- Georgia: 5-7 ATS
Boise State destroyed UNLV on the smurf turf The Dawgs enter conference championship weekend with the worst ATS record among all 18 teams for the second straight season.
And if you like playing revenge games there are six on tap.
Should be plenty of great games this weekend.
I went 2-1 last week. I would have been 3-0 if SMU hadn’t let up a TD with 43 seconds against Cal. It brings the overall record to just slightly positive at 23-22.
Going to make some additional picks this week in an effort to hopefully expand on the winning record
And if you like playing revenge games there are six on tap.
- Georgia vs. Alabama (Bulldogs lost, 24-21, at home)
- UNLV at Boise (Rebels lost, 56-31, on the road)
- Kennesaw at Jacksonville State (Owls lost, 35-26, on the road)
- BYU vs. Texas Tech (Cougars lost, 29-7, on the road)
- Western Michigan vs. Miami (Ohio) (Broncos lost, 26-17, on the road)
- Duke vs. Virginia (Blue Devils lost, 34-17, at home)
Should be plenty of great games this weekend.
I went 2-1 last week. I would have been 3-0 if SMU hadn’t let up a TD with 43 seconds against Cal. It brings the overall record to just slightly positive at 23-22.
Going to make some additional picks this week in an effort to hopefully expand on the winning record
Kennesaw State won everywhere but on the scoreboard last time versus Jax State I’ll start with another -119 Money Line Parlay:
James Madison ML vs Troy – The Dukes haven’t missed a beat since Cignetti left.
Texas Tech ML vs BYU – Texas Tech bought itself a juggernaut. It keeps rolling
Ohio State ML vs Indiana – talent wins out in the end
Then I’ll go with
Kennesaw State -2.5 @ Jacksonville State – It’s a rematch that Jacksonville State won 35-26 three weeks ago. Kennesaw State outgained JSU that night by 128 yards but were done in by being -4 in the turnover margin and missing a chip shot FG.
KSU QB Amari Odom was horrible that day throwing three picks. Since then, he has thrown for nine TDs with no picks, averaging 11 yards per pass attempt, He also notched two more TDs in the ground.
James Madison ML vs Troy – The Dukes haven’t missed a beat since Cignetti left.
Texas Tech ML vs BYU – Texas Tech bought itself a juggernaut. It keeps rolling
Ohio State ML vs Indiana – talent wins out in the end
Then I’ll go with
Kennesaw State -2.5 @ Jacksonville State – It’s a rematch that Jacksonville State won 35-26 three weeks ago. Kennesaw State outgained JSU that night by 128 yards but were done in by being -4 in the turnover margin and missing a chip shot FG.
KSU QB Amari Odom was horrible that day throwing three picks. Since then, he has thrown for nine TDs with no picks, averaging 11 yards per pass attempt, He also notched two more TDs in the ground.
Not Bama again The Owls will play cleaner and Odom will get his revenge keeping KSU’s very slim CFP chances alive.
Alabama +2.5 @ Georgia – Kirby Smart must be thinking “Oh no, here we go again” He’s 0-3 against the Tide in the SEC championship game and 3-0 against everyone else. He may also be thinking, this place is getting to look familiar as he just narrowly escaped Georgia Tech at the Mercedes Done last week.
These teams are virtually identical statistically with Bama ahead in the slightest of margins. So I’ll take the points.
Plus, in a close game I’ll take the better QB Bama’s Ty Simpson over Dawg QB Gunner Stockton
Alabama +2.5 @ Georgia – Kirby Smart must be thinking “Oh no, here we go again” He’s 0-3 against the Tide in the SEC championship game and 3-0 against everyone else. He may also be thinking, this place is getting to look familiar as he just narrowly escaped Georgia Tech at the Mercedes Done last week.
These teams are virtually identical statistically with Bama ahead in the slightest of margins. So I’ll take the points.
Plus, in a close game I’ll take the better QB Bama’s Ty Simpson over Dawg QB Gunner Stockton
North Texas has the #1 offense in the country North Texas -2.5 @ Tulane – It’s the Mean Green versus the Green Wave and both head coaches are moving on to greener pastures, so I’ll go with the Green, Mean Green that is.
North Texas has a 1,200-yard rusher in Caleb Hawkins. Tulane’s leading rusher is their QB Jake Retzlaff with 561 yards on 103 carries.
North Texas has 44 rushing TD on the season, Tulane has just 23 rushing TD total.
North Texas QB Drew Mestemaker has thrown for a nation-high 3,835 yards this season and has a 29/4 TD/INT ratio. In comparison, Tulane’s QB Retzlaff has thrown for 2,717 and has a14/6 TD/INT ratio
North Texas is on a roll ripping off six wins in a row and scoring at least 52 points in five of those. They are also 6-0-0 against the spread in the last six. That trend should continue.
North Texas has a 1,200-yard rusher in Caleb Hawkins. Tulane’s leading rusher is their QB Jake Retzlaff with 561 yards on 103 carries.
North Texas has 44 rushing TD on the season, Tulane has just 23 rushing TD total.
North Texas QB Drew Mestemaker has thrown for a nation-high 3,835 yards this season and has a 29/4 TD/INT ratio. In comparison, Tulane’s QB Retzlaff has thrown for 2,717 and has a14/6 TD/INT ratio
North Texas is on a roll ripping off six wins in a row and scoring at least 52 points in five of those. They are also 6-0-0 against the spread in the last six. That trend should continue.
Virginia stuffed Duke last time Virginia -3.5 vs Duke – Revenge games only work of the loser of the first game shot itself in the foot but otherwise outplayed the winning team (see KSU v JSU above). That’s not the case here. Virginia dominated Duke in round one, outgaining the Blue Devils 540 yards to 255, and averaged 7.0 yards per play to Duke’s 4.4.
The 34-17 beat down would have been worse if it weren’t for a pick 6 thrown by the Cavs. Virginia actually led 31-3 at one point before coasting in the 4th quarter.
Virginia is playing better down the stretch and will not let Duke back in the game like the last time. And do you really think the ACC will let Duke win and screw up their only chance at a CFP spot?
The 34-17 beat down would have been worse if it weren’t for a pick 6 thrown by the Cavs. Virginia actually led 31-3 at one point before coasting in the 4th quarter.
Virginia is playing better down the stretch and will not let Duke back in the game like the last time. And do you really think the ACC will let Duke win and screw up their only chance at a CFP spot?
