Central loves to run the ball Happy Boxing Day everyone. I hope your Christmas went well. Mine was full of family, friends and good times. Couldn't have been better.
Well maybe just a little better. There was no college football. Plenty of NFL action as the Lions looked like they were throwing the game for a better draft pick and officially removed themselves from the playoffs.
Today we return to college action with three games. Starting with:
Northwestern vs Central Michigan 1H under 21.5 - Year 1 under HC Matt Drinkall was a huge success for Central Michigan. The Chippewas hadn't been bowling since the 2021 Sun Bowl, and Drinkall had them just one game away from appearing in the MAC Championship this season.
After spending half a decade in Army's offensive system Drinkall brought a run-first approach to Mount Pleasant. CMU rushed with the second-highest frequency of all non-service academy teams (66.5%)
CMU employs a bend-don't-break defensive philosophy. The Chippewas are also solid on first and second downs, frequently forcing opponents into third-and-long situations.
Northwestern had a great turnaround as well. After finishing last year at 4-8, they were expected to win 3.5 games and finish 13th in the Big Ten. They instead ended up 6-6 and in a bowl game.
The Cats are a carbon copy of CMU, solid defense and a heavy dose of runs on offense. They will bleed to clock to shorten the game. The 'Cats ran 64 plays per game (92nd nationally) at a rate of 30 seconds per play (131st).
QB Preston Stone was inconsistent with 14 TDs but 12 picks. That could spell trouble as CMU led the MAC in turnover margin.
I would normally take the Chips and the 10.5 points but I put a bunch of points on Northwestern in my confidence pool and don’t want to be rooting against myself so I’ll take the first half under 21.5 as both teams feel each other out
Well maybe just a little better. There was no college football. Plenty of NFL action as the Lions looked like they were throwing the game for a better draft pick and officially removed themselves from the playoffs.
Today we return to college action with three games. Starting with:
Northwestern vs Central Michigan 1H under 21.5 - Year 1 under HC Matt Drinkall was a huge success for Central Michigan. The Chippewas hadn't been bowling since the 2021 Sun Bowl, and Drinkall had them just one game away from appearing in the MAC Championship this season.
After spending half a decade in Army's offensive system Drinkall brought a run-first approach to Mount Pleasant. CMU rushed with the second-highest frequency of all non-service academy teams (66.5%)
CMU employs a bend-don't-break defensive philosophy. The Chippewas are also solid on first and second downs, frequently forcing opponents into third-and-long situations.
Northwestern had a great turnaround as well. After finishing last year at 4-8, they were expected to win 3.5 games and finish 13th in the Big Ten. They instead ended up 6-6 and in a bowl game.
The Cats are a carbon copy of CMU, solid defense and a heavy dose of runs on offense. They will bleed to clock to shorten the game. The 'Cats ran 64 plays per game (92nd nationally) at a rate of 30 seconds per play (131st).
QB Preston Stone was inconsistent with 14 TDs but 12 picks. That could spell trouble as CMU led the MAC in turnover margin.
I would normally take the Chips and the 10.5 points but I put a bunch of points on Northwestern in my confidence pool and don’t want to be rooting against myself so I’ll take the first half under 21.5 as both teams feel each other out
The Gophers defense is susceptible to big plays New Mexico ML vs Minnesota (+100) – I like taking strong group if five teams to cover when playing mediocre Power 4 teams.
Minnesota has a young quarterback, injured running backs, uninspiring wide receivers, a terrible offensive line, and a bad defense that allowed far too many crippling big plays. Minnesota also struggles on third and fourth down, ranking 91st in the nation in that area. They are lucky to be bowling this year.
The Gophers were also dreadful away from Minneapolis, losing all five games by an average margin of 24.4 points. They weren’t even competitive.
New Mexico’s HC Jason Eck is a hot name in this years coaching carousel. In his first year with the Lobos he has them on the cusp of a 10 win season and just missed out on playing for the MWC championship.
Statistically, New Mexico grades out better than Minnesota and The Lobos should also be close to full strength. Their main players are healthy, and the injury list is much shorter than Minnesota’s.
New Mexico comes into the game on a six game winning streak and would like nothing better than to keep that momentum going into next year.
Minnesota’s PJ Fleck may be 6-0 in bowls but he gets first bowl loss today.
Minnesota has a young quarterback, injured running backs, uninspiring wide receivers, a terrible offensive line, and a bad defense that allowed far too many crippling big plays. Minnesota also struggles on third and fourth down, ranking 91st in the nation in that area. They are lucky to be bowling this year.
The Gophers were also dreadful away from Minneapolis, losing all five games by an average margin of 24.4 points. They weren’t even competitive.
New Mexico’s HC Jason Eck is a hot name in this years coaching carousel. In his first year with the Lobos he has them on the cusp of a 10 win season and just missed out on playing for the MWC championship.
Statistically, New Mexico grades out better than Minnesota and The Lobos should also be close to full strength. Their main players are healthy, and the injury list is much shorter than Minnesota’s.
New Mexico comes into the game on a six game winning streak and would like nothing better than to keep that momentum going into next year.
Minnesota’s PJ Fleck may be 6-0 in bowls but he gets first bowl loss today.
FIU has a poor defense UT San Antonio -5.5 vs Florida International – When you compare FIU’s 7-5 record to UTSA’s 6-6 you would think these team are even;y matched. They are not. FIU’s strength of schedule ranks behind some FCS schools like Illinois State and North Dakota.
Despite facing such a weak schedule, the Panthers rank 104th in offensive, 103rd in rushing success, and 105th in rushing defense success rate. The Panthers allow the third-most yards before contact of any FBS team, giving up 2.87 line yards. They also generate little pressure without blitzing heavily.
That’s a bad matchup versus UTSA. The Roadrunners offensive line that ranks 29th in line yards and 34th in pressure rate allowed. Their backs also rank 20th in yards after contact in the ground game. The Roadrunners are also strong on early downs, ranking 18th.
The defense however is susceptible to explosive plays. They tied for 127th in plays of 30+ yards allowed with 34 and gave up 10 plays of 50 or more yards.
Major defensive lapses cancelled out a lot of the good offensive production. But FIU is not built to attack this weakness. I’ll take the Roadrunners to cover
I went 1-0 on Christmas Eve to bring the overall record to 27-27. Time to get back on the winning side of the ledger
Despite facing such a weak schedule, the Panthers rank 104th in offensive, 103rd in rushing success, and 105th in rushing defense success rate. The Panthers allow the third-most yards before contact of any FBS team, giving up 2.87 line yards. They also generate little pressure without blitzing heavily.
That’s a bad matchup versus UTSA. The Roadrunners offensive line that ranks 29th in line yards and 34th in pressure rate allowed. Their backs also rank 20th in yards after contact in the ground game. The Roadrunners are also strong on early downs, ranking 18th.
The defense however is susceptible to explosive plays. They tied for 127th in plays of 30+ yards allowed with 34 and gave up 10 plays of 50 or more yards.
Major defensive lapses cancelled out a lot of the good offensive production. But FIU is not built to attack this weakness. I’ll take the Roadrunners to cover
I went 1-0 on Christmas Eve to bring the overall record to 27-27. Time to get back on the winning side of the ledger
