Paul will be coming home soon Others will disagree but they will be wrong. It’s the biggest rivalry in college football as our heroes, Michigan State, takes on the most hated team in sports, I won’t even say their name this week.
And are those clowns struggling! From the Champions of Cheaters to Misfiring Mediocrity in less than half a season.
State was supposed to be wondering if they will make a bowl. Now that onus is on that cesspool down south. I wonder what the tunnel will be like after the game.
And there are some other (not as good) games on tap too. Who thought the two teams in the SEC without a conference loss would be LSU and Texas A&M.
Probably the same people that had Notre Dame vs Navy, Oregon vs Illinois and Vanderbilt vs Texas as ranked matchups.
It’s been a wild year and we are barely half way through.
And are those clowns struggling! From the Champions of Cheaters to Misfiring Mediocrity in less than half a season.
State was supposed to be wondering if they will make a bowl. Now that onus is on that cesspool down south. I wonder what the tunnel will be like after the game.
And there are some other (not as good) games on tap too. Who thought the two teams in the SEC without a conference loss would be LSU and Texas A&M.
Probably the same people that had Notre Dame vs Navy, Oregon vs Illinois and Vanderbilt vs Texas as ranked matchups.
It’s been a wild year and we are barely half way through.
Illinois went with the weird unis and still dominated Last week I put a several theories to the test to see which ones are really working. Here’s the results
1.Take the favorites in ranked matchups: Results: #7 Alabama -3.0 @ #11 Tennessee (I’ll take the Tide since In the last two weeks, Tennessee has been shutout in the first half against Florida and Arkansas.) LOSS (though Tennessee was again shutout in the first half), Texas -3.5 vs Georgia LOSS and #22 Michigan -3.0 @ #24 Illinois WIN
2.The Bettors Guide tracks team matchups ATS since 2005, Results: This week’s games are Florida State 7-0-1 vs Duke (I’ll take Duke as it’s a revenge game for the Devils after years of getting punked by FSU) WIN and Arkansas 13-5-1 vs LSU (I’ll take the Hogs here) LOSS
3.The Bettors Guide also catalogs scores from last year to see if there are any revenge games on tap. Results: South Florida -13.5 vs UAB (taking South Florida against a pathetic UAB team) LOSS, Miami (FL) -5.0 @ Louisville (pass, Miami (FL) covered), Wisconsin -7.0 @ Northwestern (pass, Wiscy covered) BYU -9.5 vs Oklahoma State (pass, BYU did not cover) and Colorado State -7.0 @ Air Force WIN
1.Take the favorites in ranked matchups: Results: #7 Alabama -3.0 @ #11 Tennessee (I’ll take the Tide since In the last two weeks, Tennessee has been shutout in the first half against Florida and Arkansas.) LOSS (though Tennessee was again shutout in the first half), Texas -3.5 vs Georgia LOSS and #22 Michigan -3.0 @ #24 Illinois WIN
2.The Bettors Guide tracks team matchups ATS since 2005, Results: This week’s games are Florida State 7-0-1 vs Duke (I’ll take Duke as it’s a revenge game for the Devils after years of getting punked by FSU) WIN and Arkansas 13-5-1 vs LSU (I’ll take the Hogs here) LOSS
3.The Bettors Guide also catalogs scores from last year to see if there are any revenge games on tap. Results: South Florida -13.5 vs UAB (taking South Florida against a pathetic UAB team) LOSS, Miami (FL) -5.0 @ Louisville (pass, Miami (FL) covered), Wisconsin -7.0 @ Northwestern (pass, Wiscy covered) BYU -9.5 vs Oklahoma State (pass, BYU did not cover) and Colorado State -7.0 @ Air Force WIN
Those night ca games are still trending under 4.When the wind is 13 MPH or greater, unders cash in at a 57% rate. Results UAB @ South Florida 57.5 LOSS b) NC State @ Cal 47.5 – (pass) Rice @ Tulane 52.5 WIN Baylor @ Texas Tech 55.5 LOSS
5.But games starting at 10 p.m. ET or later are 314-245-3 (56.2%) to the under over the last decade. This week’s last call games are Oklahoma State @ BYU 53.0 LOSS. UNLV @ Oregon State 61.5 WIN and TCU @ Utah 49.0 WIN
6.And, so far this season, we've had 57 games with a total of 60 or more. The record is 19-37-1 to the under. Results: North Texas @ Memphis 66.5; (pass, game went over) Miami (FL) @ Louisville 61.0, LOSS New Mexico 78 @ Utah State LOSS, UNLV @ Oregon State 61.5 WIN and Texas State @ Old Dominion 61.5 LOSS
7.Teams that lose by 14+, who are then 7+ point favorites are just 45% ATS since 2020 Results: This week’s game is Arkansas State –7.0 @ Southern Miss (pass, Arkansas State covered)
5.But games starting at 10 p.m. ET or later are 314-245-3 (56.2%) to the under over the last decade. This week’s last call games are Oklahoma State @ BYU 53.0 LOSS. UNLV @ Oregon State 61.5 WIN and TCU @ Utah 49.0 WIN
6.And, so far this season, we've had 57 games with a total of 60 or more. The record is 19-37-1 to the under. Results: North Texas @ Memphis 66.5; (pass, game went over) Miami (FL) @ Louisville 61.0, LOSS New Mexico 78 @ Utah State LOSS, UNLV @ Oregon State 61.5 WIN and Texas State @ Old Dominion 61.5 LOSS
7.Teams that lose by 14+, who are then 7+ point favorites are just 45% ATS since 2020 Results: This week’s game is Arkansas State –7.0 @ Southern Miss (pass, Arkansas State covered)
And Hawaii still struggles when traveling to the mainland 8. Underdogs in SEC conference games are 18-6 ATS so far this season including 13-3 ATS the last three weeks. Gives a whole new meaning to Go Dogs.
This week we have 8 SEC games. Auburn +4.5 @ Missouri WIN, Mississippi State +14.5 vs Texas A&M WIN, Florida +1.0 vs Kentucky WIN and Ball State +26.5 @ Vanderbilt WIN
9.And another couple of picks just for the fun of it
Bowling Green -20.5 vs Kent State - WIN
Washington State -19.0 vs Hawaii – WIN
So overall 13-10. A small profit. In reviewing the numbers, I was 4-6 taking the unders and 9-4 when betting on the spread.
’m going to favor picking against the spread going forward and go lightly on the over/unders with an exception on the last call game unders.
One thing that sticks out on the spread picks is how the underdogs are covering in the SEC. So I looked at this years results. Overall, in all games, it’s pretty even. Favorites have covered in 199 games, underdogs covered in 202 with 5 ties. By conference, its pretty even between the favorites and dogs – except for the SEC. The SEC is 36-24-1 in favor of the underdogs. The trend is even more pronounced over the last 4 weeks with the dogs covering at a 19-6 clip.
This week we have 8 SEC games. Auburn +4.5 @ Missouri WIN, Mississippi State +14.5 vs Texas A&M WIN, Florida +1.0 vs Kentucky WIN and Ball State +26.5 @ Vanderbilt WIN
9.And another couple of picks just for the fun of it
Bowling Green -20.5 vs Kent State - WIN
Washington State -19.0 vs Hawaii – WIN
So overall 13-10. A small profit. In reviewing the numbers, I was 4-6 taking the unders and 9-4 when betting on the spread.
’m going to favor picking against the spread going forward and go lightly on the over/unders with an exception on the last call game unders.
One thing that sticks out on the spread picks is how the underdogs are covering in the SEC. So I looked at this years results. Overall, in all games, it’s pretty even. Favorites have covered in 199 games, underdogs covered in 202 with 5 ties. By conference, its pretty even between the favorites and dogs – except for the SEC. The SEC is 36-24-1 in favor of the underdogs. The trend is even more pronounced over the last 4 weeks with the dogs covering at a 19-6 clip.
LSU has dominated A&M over the years 1. For this weeks SEC underdog games: Missouri +14.0 @ Alabama (pass), Auburn +2.5 @ Kentucky (pass). Oklahoma +20.5 @ Ole Miss (pass), Mississippi State +6.5 vs Arkansas (pass) LSU +2.5 @ Texas A&M (I’ll take the points plus LSU has dominated the Aggies historically – see below) and Vanderbilt +18.5 vs Texas (I’ll take the points here too).
2. Taking a look at the historical ATS between teams there are three candidates this week. Pitt already dominated Syracuse to bring their record versus the Orange to 13-6-1, Colorado State is 13-4-0 vs New Mexico (pass) and LSU is 10-1-1 versus Texas A&M (I’ll lay the points as it’s an SEC underdog too)
3, As for revenge games, the prime candidates are: Cal -10.0 vs Oregon State (pass), Miami (FL) -21.0 vs Florida State ( I’ll lay the points), TCU -6.5 vs Texas Tech (pass), Northern Illinois -17.0 vs Ball State (pass), Fresno State -4.5 vs San Jose State (pass). Arkansas State -7.5 vs Troy (I’ll take ASU to cover) Arkansas -6.5 vs Mississippi State (pass) and Texas A&M -2.5 vs LSU (going to take LSU here per above)
4. And for those late night last call games going under, there are 5: Rutgers USC 56.5 (I’ll take the under), Boise State UNLV 65.5 (pass), Colorado Cincinnati 57.5 (pass Travis Hunter is expected to play) Nevada Hawaii 45.5 (pass) and Washington State San Diego State 57.5 (I’ll take the under)
To recap – here is this week’s football team worth of picks:
2. Taking a look at the historical ATS between teams there are three candidates this week. Pitt already dominated Syracuse to bring their record versus the Orange to 13-6-1, Colorado State is 13-4-0 vs New Mexico (pass) and LSU is 10-1-1 versus Texas A&M (I’ll lay the points as it’s an SEC underdog too)
3, As for revenge games, the prime candidates are: Cal -10.0 vs Oregon State (pass), Miami (FL) -21.0 vs Florida State ( I’ll lay the points), TCU -6.5 vs Texas Tech (pass), Northern Illinois -17.0 vs Ball State (pass), Fresno State -4.5 vs San Jose State (pass). Arkansas State -7.5 vs Troy (I’ll take ASU to cover) Arkansas -6.5 vs Mississippi State (pass) and Texas A&M -2.5 vs LSU (going to take LSU here per above)
4. And for those late night last call games going under, there are 5: Rutgers USC 56.5 (I’ll take the under), Boise State UNLV 65.5 (pass), Colorado Cincinnati 57.5 (pass Travis Hunter is expected to play) Nevada Hawaii 45.5 (pass) and Washington State San Diego State 57.5 (I’ll take the under)
To recap – here is this week’s football team worth of picks:
Troy's offense is beyond terrible 1.LSU +2.5 @ Texas A&M - The Aggies have lost six of their last seven against ranked teams.
2.Vanderbilt +18.5 vs Texas – Vandy leads the SEC in time of possession. They are used to big games.
3.Miami (FL) -21.0 vs Florida State – These games can be blow outs. Miami’s #1 offense will run past the Nole’s 129th ranked offense starting an inexperienced QB.
4.Arkansas State -7.5 vs Troy – Troy is next level awful. They have yet to beat a Div 1A team and the offense is offensive. ASU is looking to be bowl eligible
5.Rutgers @ USC Under 56.5 - Both teams will have success running the ball and chewing up clock. Rutgers will be sleepy with the late kick off.
6.Washington State @ San Diego State under 57.5 – Cougars like to run the ball. Aztecs struggle on offense. SDSU games against Div 1A have yet to go over 51 points.
Plus some other picks I like:
While SMU's is rolling 7.Notre Dame -13.5 @ Navy (East Rutherford NJ) - Navy may be 6-0 but the combined record of the teams they beat – 10-27. Middies has not faced a defense like NDs.
8.Oregon -21.5 vs Illinois - Since 2005, in matchups between ranked teams, favorites of 14-plus have gone 76-53-1 ATS
9.SMU -11.0 @ Duke - In it’s last three games, Duke squeaked by North Carolina, lost to Georgia Tech and barely beat Florida State. SMU is better than those teams and is rolling.
10.BYU Money Line (+110) @ Central Florida – Two teams headed in opposite directions. UCF has lost 4 straight and benched their QB. BYU is ranked and rolling. Wrong team is favored.
And time to start practicing NFL bets. I’ll go with:
11.Green Bay -4.0 @ Jacksonville – With Love healthy again, the Pack is one of the better teams in the NFL. Jags suck and finally were allowed back into the US.
And for all the games. spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2024 Week 9 Bettors Guide.
8.Oregon -21.5 vs Illinois - Since 2005, in matchups between ranked teams, favorites of 14-plus have gone 76-53-1 ATS
9.SMU -11.0 @ Duke - In it’s last three games, Duke squeaked by North Carolina, lost to Georgia Tech and barely beat Florida State. SMU is better than those teams and is rolling.
10.BYU Money Line (+110) @ Central Florida – Two teams headed in opposite directions. UCF has lost 4 straight and benched their QB. BYU is ranked and rolling. Wrong team is favored.
And time to start practicing NFL bets. I’ll go with:
11.Green Bay -4.0 @ Jacksonville – With Love healthy again, the Pack is one of the better teams in the NFL. Jags suck and finally were allowed back into the US.
And for all the games. spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2024 Week 9 Bettors Guide.
| 2024_week_9.xlsx |
Remember the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th at the Westgate SuperBook
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