scUM will have trouble with the snap if you bet on them After last week’s fantastic Oho State @ Oregon game, the SEC takes center stage again with Alabama @ Tennessee and a huge game with Georgia @ Texas. Speaking of ranked matchups:
1.Taking the favorites is a good strategy. Since 2020, in games where both teams are ranked, the favorite is 57% ATS. Last week’s games were: Ohio State -4.5 @ Oregon; #9 Ole Miss -2.5 @ LSU and Texas -14.5 vs Oklahoma I’m actually leaning towards going against the strategy this week and take the home teams in Oregon and LSU while taking Texas too. I was spot on with three WINS on Oregon, LSU and Texas
This weeks games are
a) #7 Alabama -3.0 @ #11 Tennessee (I’ll take the Tide since In the last two weeks, Tennessee has been shutout in the first half against Florida and Arkansas plus Tennessee is 4-12 as a dog since 2020),
b) Texas -3.5 vs Georgia (I’ll take the Horns. Would the spread be this small if Georgia were not the preseason #1? and look at metric 2)
c) #22 Michigan -3.0 @ #24 Illinois (I never bet on scUM. I will take the Illini here)
1.Taking the favorites is a good strategy. Since 2020, in games where both teams are ranked, the favorite is 57% ATS. Last week’s games were: Ohio State -4.5 @ Oregon; #9 Ole Miss -2.5 @ LSU and Texas -14.5 vs Oklahoma I’m actually leaning towards going against the strategy this week and take the home teams in Oregon and LSU while taking Texas too. I was spot on with three WINS on Oregon, LSU and Texas
This weeks games are
a) #7 Alabama -3.0 @ #11 Tennessee (I’ll take the Tide since In the last two weeks, Tennessee has been shutout in the first half against Florida and Arkansas plus Tennessee is 4-12 as a dog since 2020),
b) Texas -3.5 vs Georgia (I’ll take the Horns. Would the spread be this small if Georgia were not the preseason #1? and look at metric 2)
c) #22 Michigan -3.0 @ #24 Illinois (I never bet on scUM. I will take the Illini here)
Texas got the Hat back 2. Taking this metric a little further -
a) In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are 153-107-8 ATS Favors Tennessee, Texas and Illinois
b) When the home team has been ranked better, 76-44-4 ATS Favors Texas
c) Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 47-20-3 ATS - Again with Texas
Looing at the other metrics, how they played out last week and what might be some candidates for this week (with this weeks picks in BOLD)
3.The Bettors Guide tracks team matchups ATS since 2005, historically – Texas is 12-6-1 vs Oklahoma and Florida is 13-5-1 versus Tennessee. Results – Texas covered vs Oklahoma WIN and Florida @ Tennessee WIN 2-0!
This week’s games are
a) Florida State 7-0-1 vs Duke (I’ll take Duke as it’s a revenge game for the Devils after years of getting punked by FSU)
b) Arkansas 13-5-1 vs LSU (I’ll take the Hogs here - see the SEC underdog metric below)
a) In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are 153-107-8 ATS Favors Tennessee, Texas and Illinois
b) When the home team has been ranked better, 76-44-4 ATS Favors Texas
c) Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 47-20-3 ATS - Again with Texas
Looing at the other metrics, how they played out last week and what might be some candidates for this week (with this weeks picks in BOLD)
3.The Bettors Guide tracks team matchups ATS since 2005, historically – Texas is 12-6-1 vs Oklahoma and Florida is 13-5-1 versus Tennessee. Results – Texas covered vs Oklahoma WIN and Florida @ Tennessee WIN 2-0!
This week’s games are
a) Florida State 7-0-1 vs Duke (I’ll take Duke as it’s a revenge game for the Devils after years of getting punked by FSU)
b) Arkansas 13-5-1 vs LSU (I’ll take the Hogs here - see the SEC underdog metric below)
Colorado State has upped their game. Air Force is still terrible 4.The Bettors Guide also catalogs scores from last year to see if there are any revenge games on tap. Last week’s results: Tennessee -15.0 vs Florida; LOSS, UL Monroe -6.5 vs Southern Miss; WIN Texas State -14.5 vs Arkansas State; WIN Maryland -10.0 vs Northwestern LOSS and Texas -14.5 vs Oklahoma WIN – 3-2,
This weeks games are
a) South Florida -13.5 vs UAB (taking South Florida against a pathetic UAB team),
b) Miami (FL) -5.0 @ Louisville (pass),
c) Wisconsin -7.0 @ Northwestern (Badgers couldn’t cover vs Purdue in this same spot and Northwestern prevented Maryland from covering last week too but I will pass)
d) BYU -9.5 vs Oklahoma State (I’ll pass) and
e) Colorado State -7.0 @ Air Force (Taking the Rams here)
This weeks games are
a) South Florida -13.5 vs UAB (taking South Florida against a pathetic UAB team),
b) Miami (FL) -5.0 @ Louisville (pass),
c) Wisconsin -7.0 @ Northwestern (Badgers couldn’t cover vs Purdue in this same spot and Northwestern prevented Maryland from covering last week too but I will pass)
d) BYU -9.5 vs Oklahoma State (I’ll pass) and
e) Colorado State -7.0 @ Air Force (Taking the Rams here)
Late night games tend to go under 5. When the wind is 13 MPH or greater, unders cash in at a 57% rate. Results: Boise State @ Hawaii WIN; North Texas @ Florida Atlantic LOSS and San Diego State @ Wyoming LOSS 1-2 Overall this metric has 10-11-1 so far this year.
This weeks candidates are:
a) UAB W South Florida 57.5 - I'll take the under here
b) NC State @ Cal 47.5 - I'll pass, I never get NC State games correct
c) Rice @ Tulane 52.5 - I'll take the under
d) Baylor @ Texas Tech 55.5 - Another under for me
6. Diving deeper in to the Unders - games starting at 10 p.m. ET or later are 314-245-3 (56.2%) to the under over the last decade. This week’s last call games are
a) Oklahoma State @ BYU 53.0 - I'll take the under here
b) UNLV @ Oregon State 61.5. - I'll take the under here too
This weeks candidates are:
a) UAB W South Florida 57.5 - I'll take the under here
b) NC State @ Cal 47.5 - I'll pass, I never get NC State games correct
c) Rice @ Tulane 52.5 - I'll take the under
d) Baylor @ Texas Tech 55.5 - Another under for me
6. Diving deeper in to the Unders - games starting at 10 p.m. ET or later are 314-245-3 (56.2%) to the under over the last decade. This week’s last call games are
a) Oklahoma State @ BYU 53.0 - I'll take the under here
b) UNLV @ Oregon State 61.5. - I'll take the under here too
As do games lined in the 60's 7.And, even further into the Unders - so far this season, we've had 57 games with a total of 60 or more. The record is 19-37-1 to the under. This week’s games are
a) North Texas @ Memphis 66.5 - pass North Texas is 5-0 to the Over
b) Miami (FL) @ Louisville 61.0,
c) New Mexico 77.5 @ Utah State,
d) UNLV @ Oregon State 61.5 - a double under metric
e) Texas State @ Old Dominion 61.5.
What the heck I’ll take the unders on four of those those games.
8.Teams that lose by 14+, who are then 7+ point favorites are just 45% ATS since 2020 Results: Maryland -10 vs Northwestern WIN; Illinois -19.5 vs Purdue WIN and Missouri -27.5 @ UMass LOSS – 2-1 not bad.
This week’s game is Arkansas State –7.0 @ Southern Miss (pass)
a) North Texas @ Memphis 66.5 - pass North Texas is 5-0 to the Over
b) Miami (FL) @ Louisville 61.0,
c) New Mexico 77.5 @ Utah State,
d) UNLV @ Oregon State 61.5 - a double under metric
e) Texas State @ Old Dominion 61.5.
What the heck I’ll take the unders on four of those those games.
8.Teams that lose by 14+, who are then 7+ point favorites are just 45% ATS since 2020 Results: Maryland -10 vs Northwestern WIN; Illinois -19.5 vs Purdue WIN and Missouri -27.5 @ UMass LOSS – 2-1 not bad.
This week’s game is Arkansas State –7.0 @ Southern Miss (pass)
Underdogs are cleaning up in the SEC lately 9. Since 2018, in Top 10 matchups, Ohio State is 6-13-1 ATS, covering just 2 of their last nine games in the spot. In top 5 matchups, Ohio State has lost three in a row SU and 4 of its last five overall. Ryan Day sucks in big time games WIN
10.The Nits are 14-4 ATS on the road dating back to 2020. Penn State won but did not cover LOSS. Penn State got caught up in the Time Zone travel stat. Definitely factoring that stat on GO JUMBO.
11. More bad news for Bama fans. Top-10 teams off a road loss as a 14+ point favorites are 9-17 ATS the following game. They also go under at a 17-6-1 clip, Bama narrowly escaped South Carolina WIN though it did go over LOSS
12. Underdogs in SEC conference games are 18-6 ATS so far this season including 13-3 ATS the last three weeks. Gives a whole new meaning to Go Dogs.
This week we have 8 SEC games. I’ll take the SEC under dogs with:
a. Arkansas +2.5 vs LSU (Hogs HC Sam Pittman is 22-8 ATS as an underdog, including 15-4 ATS mark against top-20 opponents.
b. Auburn +4.5 @ Missouri (Auburn HC Hugh Freeze is 30-14 ATS as an underdog, including 18-9 ATS record (66.7%) against SEC competition.
c. Mississippi State +14.5 vs Texas A&M,
e. Ball State +26.5 @ Vanderbilt
10.The Nits are 14-4 ATS on the road dating back to 2020. Penn State won but did not cover LOSS. Penn State got caught up in the Time Zone travel stat. Definitely factoring that stat on GO JUMBO.
11. More bad news for Bama fans. Top-10 teams off a road loss as a 14+ point favorites are 9-17 ATS the following game. They also go under at a 17-6-1 clip, Bama narrowly escaped South Carolina WIN though it did go over LOSS
12. Underdogs in SEC conference games are 18-6 ATS so far this season including 13-3 ATS the last three weeks. Gives a whole new meaning to Go Dogs.
This week we have 8 SEC games. I’ll take the SEC under dogs with:
a. Arkansas +2.5 vs LSU (Hogs HC Sam Pittman is 22-8 ATS as an underdog, including 15-4 ATS mark against top-20 opponents.
b. Auburn +4.5 @ Missouri (Auburn HC Hugh Freeze is 30-14 ATS as an underdog, including 18-9 ATS record (66.7%) against SEC competition.
c. Mississippi State +14.5 vs Texas A&M,
e. Ball State +26.5 @ Vanderbilt
UAB is terrible no matter where they play 13. USC is 4-13 ATS as favorites since start of last season. This week the Condoms travel to Maryland as 7.5 point favorites. Keep in mind that USC is also 19-35-2 ATS in games played outside the Pacific Standard Time zone, going 2-8 ATS since the start of 2021.
I'm tempted to take Maryland based on the double metric but I will pass.
14. Teams that lose by 14+, who are then 7+ point favorites the next week, win at an 84% clip SU, but are just 45% ATS since 2020. This week’s qualifiers are: South Florida -13.5 qualifies (I’ll pass, UAB is miserable) and Arkansas State -7.0 @ Southern Miss (interesting but I will pass)
I count 19 quatloo bets from above
To make it a full 3 TD investing week, I'll add in these as well
Bowling Green -20.5 vs Kent State - Kent State is 7-20 ATS in the last 27 games as underdogs. For some reason the public is backing the Flasher. I’ll fade both the public and the worst team in the country.
Washington State -19.0 vs Hawaii - 14, Hawaii is 4-20 SU and 9-15 ATS on the road. .
And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2024 Week 8 Bettors Guide
I'm tempted to take Maryland based on the double metric but I will pass.
14. Teams that lose by 14+, who are then 7+ point favorites the next week, win at an 84% clip SU, but are just 45% ATS since 2020. This week’s qualifiers are: South Florida -13.5 qualifies (I’ll pass, UAB is miserable) and Arkansas State -7.0 @ Southern Miss (interesting but I will pass)
I count 19 quatloo bets from above
To make it a full 3 TD investing week, I'll add in these as well
Bowling Green -20.5 vs Kent State - Kent State is 7-20 ATS in the last 27 games as underdogs. For some reason the public is backing the Flasher. I’ll fade both the public and the worst team in the country.
Washington State -19.0 vs Hawaii - 14, Hawaii is 4-20 SU and 9-15 ATS on the road. .
And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2024 Week 8 Bettors Guide
| 2024_week_8.xlsx |
Remember the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th at the Westgate SuperBook
