A&M crushed Mizzou last week 41-10 It's going to be a great weekend for college football with plenty of huge matchups including Ohio State with Chip Kelly as OC returning to Eugene in a game that could decide the Big Ten. It will be the 120th version of the Red River Shootout but the first time as an SEC game. And #9 Ole Miss travels to Baton Rouge to play #13 LSU. Playing in Death Valley at night is never easy.
I plan to go to my local watering hole, grab a spot at the bar, pound some IPAs and just enjoy.
Looking at our betting strategies from last week:
Taking the favorites is a good strategy. Since 2020, in games where both teams are ranked, the favorite is 57% ATS. Results – Texas A&M easily covered vs Mizzou 41-10 WIN
I plan to go to my local watering hole, grab a spot at the bar, pound some IPAs and just enjoy.
Looking at our betting strategies from last week:
Taking the favorites is a good strategy. Since 2020, in games where both teams are ranked, the favorite is 57% ATS. Results – Texas A&M easily covered vs Mizzou 41-10 WIN
Penn State won but did not cover. Glad I passed. This week we have:
#2 Ohio State -4.5 @ Oregon; #9 Ole Miss -2.5 @ LSU and Texas -14.5 vs Oklahoma I’m actually leaning towards going against the strategy this week and take the home teams in Oregon and LSU while taking Texas too.
James Franklin is 43-24-2 ATS when he's favored by 10 points or more. Along with Since 2016, favorites of 14+ points in top-20 matchups are 31-21 ATS. I’m staying away from this one. UCLA is more of a cupcake than Illinois but I will pass. I was right to avoid this stat again as Penn State won but did not cover the 4 TD spread vs the Bruins 27-11
Since 2021,Oregon State is 19-3 SU and 18-4 ATS in lined home games — the best mark in the country. Result - the Beavers needed OT to beat the Rams 39-31 LOSS
#2 Ohio State -4.5 @ Oregon; #9 Ole Miss -2.5 @ LSU and Texas -14.5 vs Oklahoma I’m actually leaning towards going against the strategy this week and take the home teams in Oregon and LSU while taking Texas too.
James Franklin is 43-24-2 ATS when he's favored by 10 points or more. Along with Since 2016, favorites of 14+ points in top-20 matchups are 31-21 ATS. I’m staying away from this one. UCLA is more of a cupcake than Illinois but I will pass. I was right to avoid this stat again as Penn State won but did not cover the 4 TD spread vs the Bruins 27-11
Since 2021,Oregon State is 19-3 SU and 18-4 ATS in lined home games — the best mark in the country. Result - the Beavers needed OT to beat the Rams 39-31 LOSS
Boise crushed Utah State 62-30 for an easy cover Boise State is 20-1 SU and 17-3-1 ATS vs. Utah State since 1998, winning and covering seven in a row dating back to 2017. The Broncos have also won 11 consecutive home games SU vs the Aggies. Result – Boise torched USU - 62-30 WIN
Some others to look at: Wisconsin is 13-3-0 ATS vs Purdue ; Clemson is 13-5-0 vs Florida State; and Georgia is 13-6-0 vs Auburn. Results – Wiscy covered 52-6 WIN; Clemson covered 29-13 WIN; UGA did not cover 31-13 LOSS. The Bettors guide contains how the teams compare vs the spread going back to 2015. Handy information
This week’s candidates – Texas is 12-6-1 vs Oklahoma and Florida is 13-5-1 versus Tennessee. Mixed messages with Florida, given its a revenge game for Tennessee - see below.
The Bettors Guide also catalogs scores from last year to see if there are any revenge games on tap. This weeks’ revenge games are – Tennessee -15.0 vs Florida; UL Monroe -6.5 vs Southern Miss; Texas State -14.5 vs Arkansas State; Maryland -10.0 vs Northwestern and Texas -14.5 vs Oklahoma.
Some others to look at: Wisconsin is 13-3-0 ATS vs Purdue ; Clemson is 13-5-0 vs Florida State; and Georgia is 13-6-0 vs Auburn. Results – Wiscy covered 52-6 WIN; Clemson covered 29-13 WIN; UGA did not cover 31-13 LOSS. The Bettors guide contains how the teams compare vs the spread going back to 2015. Handy information
This week’s candidates – Texas is 12-6-1 vs Oklahoma and Florida is 13-5-1 versus Tennessee. Mixed messages with Florida, given its a revenge game for Tennessee - see below.
The Bettors Guide also catalogs scores from last year to see if there are any revenge games on tap. This weeks’ revenge games are – Tennessee -15.0 vs Florida; UL Monroe -6.5 vs Southern Miss; Texas State -14.5 vs Arkansas State; Maryland -10.0 vs Northwestern and Texas -14.5 vs Oklahoma.
USC struggles outside PST USC is 19-34-2 ATS (35.8%) in games played outside the PST zone, going 2-7 ATS since the start of 2021. USC lost outright even though favored 24-17 WIN
When the wind is 13 MPH or greater, unders cash in at a 57% rate. Nebraska beat Rutgers 14-7 to go way under 40.0 WIN
This week’s candidates - Boise State @ Hawaii; North Texas @ Florida Atlantic and San Diego State @ Wyoming
Going back to this stat Teams that lose by 14+, who are then 7+ point favorites the next week, win at an 84% clip SU, but are just 45% ATS since 2020
This week’s candidates Maryland -10 vs Northwestern; Illinois -19.5 vs Purdue and Missouri -27.5 @ UMass
When the wind is 13 MPH or greater, unders cash in at a 57% rate. Nebraska beat Rutgers 14-7 to go way under 40.0 WIN
This week’s candidates - Boise State @ Hawaii; North Texas @ Florida Atlantic and San Diego State @ Wyoming
Going back to this stat Teams that lose by 14+, who are then 7+ point favorites the next week, win at an 84% clip SU, but are just 45% ATS since 2020
This week’s candidates Maryland -10 vs Northwestern; Illinois -19.5 vs Purdue and Missouri -27.5 @ UMass
What do you think about playing in Nashville now Nick? The biggest game of the weekend is #2 Ohio State traveling to Eugene to play #3 Oregon. The Bucknuts have floundered in these situations. Since 2018, in Top 10 matchups, they are 6-13-1 ATS, covering just 2 of their last nine games in the spot. In top 5 matchups, Ohio State has lost three in a row SU and 4 of its last five overall. Do I hear choking against scUM in that stat?
Penn State loves the road too. The Nits are 14-4 ATS on the road dating back to 2020.
More bad news for Bama fans. Top-10 teams off a road loss as a 14+ pt favorites are 9-17 ATS the following game. They also go under at a 17-6-1 clip, This week Bama returns home as a 21.0 favorite over South Carolina.
Another winning week as I went 4-3 plus the Point Whore Parlay cashed in and the Hold the Tables wager stayed perfect on the season.
Penn State loves the road too. The Nits are 14-4 ATS on the road dating back to 2020.
More bad news for Bama fans. Top-10 teams off a road loss as a 14+ pt favorites are 9-17 ATS the following game. They also go under at a 17-6-1 clip, This week Bama returns home as a 21.0 favorite over South Carolina.
Another winning week as I went 4-3 plus the Point Whore Parlay cashed in and the Hold the Tables wager stayed perfect on the season.
Texas wants the hat back Here’s another TD worth of picks for Week 7
Illinois -19.0 vs Purdue – Leaning heavily on the revenge angle here. Also I like wagering against bad teams on the road. Purdue is bad.
Texas -14.5 vs Oklahoma – Not only a revenge game but Texas has owned Oklahoma ATS. Also relying on - Since 2016, favorites of 14+ points in top 20 matchups are 31-22 ATS.
Penn State -5.0 @ USC - USC struggled against Minnesota's defense. Penn State's is better. Over the last decade, USC is 5-25 SU and 10-20 ATS as an underdog. And Penn State is 14-4 ATS on the road.
Colorado State +1.5 vs San Jose State – CSU is healthy again and nearly took down Oregon State. San Jose State has squeezed by playing a joke of a schedule (136th) Colorado State HC Jay Norvell is 22-9 ATS (71%) as an underdog in Mountain West play
OSU leads the nation in sack percentage Ohio State @ Oregon Under 53.0 – Two elite defense with offenses that play at a slow pace (86th and 79th respectively). Duck QB Dillon Gabriel struggles under pressure. Bucknuts lead the nation in sack percentage.
Iowa -2.5 vs Washington – Huge let down spot for the Huskies after getting CFP revenge over scUM last week. Iowa has a tremendous advantage in special teams and commits far fewer penalties.
Big Ten are 1-8 this season when traveling two or more time zones in conference play. Iowa is 25-12-1 ATS as a single-digit favorite over last 11 years.
LSU +3.5 vs Ole Miss - Rebels rank just 81st in opponent completion percentage (62.5%). LSU is the best passing attack the Rebs have faced by a Cajun mile. Tigers are coming off a bye and should be healthy while Ole Miss will be down star WR Tre Harris.
Brian Kelly is 27-13-1 (67.5%) when catching at least a field goal. He's also 15-8-1 ATS (65.2%) following a bye week.
Iowa -2.5 vs Washington – Huge let down spot for the Huskies after getting CFP revenge over scUM last week. Iowa has a tremendous advantage in special teams and commits far fewer penalties.
Big Ten are 1-8 this season when traveling two or more time zones in conference play. Iowa is 25-12-1 ATS as a single-digit favorite over last 11 years.
LSU +3.5 vs Ole Miss - Rebels rank just 81st in opponent completion percentage (62.5%). LSU is the best passing attack the Rebs have faced by a Cajun mile. Tigers are coming off a bye and should be healthy while Ole Miss will be down star WR Tre Harris.
Brian Kelly is 27-13-1 (67.5%) when catching at least a field goal. He's also 15-8-1 ATS (65.2%) following a bye week.
For this weeks Point Whore Parlay I’ll go with:
Hawaii +21.0 vs Boise State – Look ahead game for BSU with UNLV up next. Hawaii is 4-0 ATS as home dog in MWC play.
South Carolina +21.0 @ Alabama – Relying on the Top 10 road loss stat above. That, and South Carolina has enough defense to keep this one close.
Mississippi State +34.0 @ Georgia – Look ahead situation for the Dawgs too. with Texas up next. UGA will rely on the ground game against a poor MSU run defense shortening the game. Once UGA gets the big lead they will rest the starters.
And for the Hold the Tables EPL pick I’ll go with:
Arsenal -155 @ Bournemouth hedged with a tie at +295
And for al the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2024 Week 7 Bettors Guide
For this weeks Point Whore Parlay I’ll go with:
Hawaii +21.0 vs Boise State – Look ahead game for BSU with UNLV up next. Hawaii is 4-0 ATS as home dog in MWC play.
South Carolina +21.0 @ Alabama – Relying on the Top 10 road loss stat above. That, and South Carolina has enough defense to keep this one close.
Mississippi State +34.0 @ Georgia – Look ahead situation for the Dawgs too. with Texas up next. UGA will rely on the ground game against a poor MSU run defense shortening the game. Once UGA gets the big lead they will rest the starters.
And for the Hold the Tables EPL pick I’ll go with:
Arsenal -155 @ Bournemouth hedged with a tie at +295
And for al the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2024 Week 7 Bettors Guide
| 2024_week_7.xlsx |
Remember the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th at the Westgate SuperBook
