Hurricane Helene steamrolled through East Beach Command this week. Fortunately, no one was hurt, no flooding and only minimal damage to the Doofus estate. We did lose power and internet though.
But through the courageous efforts and ingenuity of the Big Book of Guesses editorial staff we will still get out the latest issue for your reading enjoyment.
Dan, has a slightly different opinion of the BBofG. Somehow this video remined him of the blog.
But through the courageous efforts and ingenuity of the Big Book of Guesses editorial staff we will still get out the latest issue for your reading enjoyment.
Dan, has a slightly different opinion of the BBofG. Somehow this video remined him of the blog.
Miami (FL) continued its Sunshine State dominance Sounds about right
Before we get into this weeks picks lets see how last weeks betting angles turned out.
1. Taking the favorites is a good strategy. Since 2020, in games where both teams are ranked, the favorite is 57% ATS. Results– #22 Nebraska favored by 8.5 over #24 Illinois. LOSS, 3:30 #11 USC is favored by 6.0 at #18 Michigan LOSS. #12 Utah is an 2.5 point underdog at #14 Oklahoma State WIN. #6 Tennessee travels to Oklahoma favored by 7.5. WIN. Another split decision.
This week - #25 Kansas State is a 6.0 favorite over Oklahoma State; Notre Dame is a 6.5 point favorite over Louisville; Penn State is a 17.5 point favorite over Illinois and in the biggest game of the year so far Georgia is a 2 point favorite over Bama.
2. Since 2021 Oregon State is 5-0 SU/ATS at home off a SU loss. Result – Beavers 38 Boilers 21 WIN
3. Over the past 20 years, Miami (FL) is 15-4 ATS on the road against schools in the Sunshine State. Result – Canes 50 Bulls 15 WIN
4 Fear the Bee! Since 2022, Georgia Tech is 10-9 SU and 14-5 ATS as an underdog, including winning their last two games outright as dogs. The Jackets have covered the spread in 7 of their last 8 games as underdogs vs. ranked opponents. This one was tough to swallow, Louisville scored a scoop six off a blocked FG to win and cover 31-19 LOSS
Before we get into this weeks picks lets see how last weeks betting angles turned out.
1. Taking the favorites is a good strategy. Since 2020, in games where both teams are ranked, the favorite is 57% ATS. Results– #22 Nebraska favored by 8.5 over #24 Illinois. LOSS, 3:30 #11 USC is favored by 6.0 at #18 Michigan LOSS. #12 Utah is an 2.5 point underdog at #14 Oklahoma State WIN. #6 Tennessee travels to Oklahoma favored by 7.5. WIN. Another split decision.
This week - #25 Kansas State is a 6.0 favorite over Oklahoma State; Notre Dame is a 6.5 point favorite over Louisville; Penn State is a 17.5 point favorite over Illinois and in the biggest game of the year so far Georgia is a 2 point favorite over Bama.
2. Since 2021 Oregon State is 5-0 SU/ATS at home off a SU loss. Result – Beavers 38 Boilers 21 WIN
3. Over the past 20 years, Miami (FL) is 15-4 ATS on the road against schools in the Sunshine State. Result – Canes 50 Bulls 15 WIN
4 Fear the Bee! Since 2022, Georgia Tech is 10-9 SU and 14-5 ATS as an underdog, including winning their last two games outright as dogs. The Jackets have covered the spread in 7 of their last 8 games as underdogs vs. ranked opponents. This one was tough to swallow, Louisville scored a scoop six off a blocked FG to win and cover 31-19 LOSS
28 points in the 4th quarter secured the over 5. USC hasn't won and covered a game in EST or CST since 2011 against Notre Dame. You know the score WIN for those buffoons who bet on scUM
That makes 5-3 overall. Not bad. Despite what Dan thinks
Last weeks results – I went 2-1.
Tennessee beat (and covered) at Oklahoma 25-15 WIN
Purdue and Oregon State scored 28 points in the 4th quarter for an over 51 – 28-21 WIN
I should have known better than to bet the Michigan game. It just inspires them. LOSS
That makes 5-3 overall. Not bad. Despite what Dan thinks
Last weeks results – I went 2-1.
Tennessee beat (and covered) at Oklahoma 25-15 WIN
Purdue and Oregon State scored 28 points in the 4th quarter for an over 51 – 28-21 WIN
I should have known better than to bet the Michigan game. It just inspires them. LOSS
But, late that night, a play by Colorado brought back pleasant memories from 1994
Oregon has been dominating UCLA Still remember that day at Dags!
A couple new investing angles this week:
6. Alabama looks like it will close as a home underdog in a top-five matchup. The last top five team to be a home dog vs. another top five opponent was Notre Dame vs Clemson twice in 2020. Overall, a top five team has been a home dog 71 times since 1990 with a record of 18-53 SU, 28-42-1 ATS.
7. Oregon has had UCLA’s number. Since 2000, the Ducks are 15-3 SU and 11-6-1 ATS against the Bruins.
8. You call that a defense North Carolina? They just allowed 70 points to James Madison. But fear not, since 2019, teams that allowed 50+ points in their previous game when listed as the favorite actually see the defense step up in their next game, with the under going 48-24. By the way the final score of JMU 70 UNC 50 was a Scorigami. It's never happened before in college football
9. James Franklin devours cupcakes like a cop on the midnight beat. In his career with Vanderbilt and Penn State, Franklin is 43-24-2 ATS (64%) when he's favored by 10 points or more. He's favored by 18 over Illinois this week
10. Another angle on the #9 Penn State vs #19 Illinois game. Since 2016, favorites of 14+ points in top-20 matchups are 31-21 ATS
Tennessee stuffed Oklahoma in Norman last week 11. Something will have to give this week when Oklahoma plays at Auburn. Oklahoma is 1-6 ATS after a home loss (they lost to Tennessee last week in Norman). Auburn, is 11-6 ATS after a home loss (the Tigers lost to Arkansas last week on the Plains)
But Auburn has lost 9 straight games as a home underdog. Oklahoma is a small favorite of 1.5 points.
12. Going to resurrect an angle from Week 3 - teams that lose by 14+, who are then 7+ point favorites the next week, win at an 84% clip SU, but are just 45% ATS since 2020. New Mexico is in that spot with New Mexico State this week, favored by 9.5 after losing by 17 last week to Fresno State. Rivalry game too.
Miami (OH) also qualifies as 18.0 favorites over UMass after losing to Notre Dame 28-3
But Auburn has lost 9 straight games as a home underdog. Oklahoma is a small favorite of 1.5 points.
12. Going to resurrect an angle from Week 3 - teams that lose by 14+, who are then 7+ point favorites the next week, win at an 84% clip SU, but are just 45% ATS since 2020. New Mexico is in that spot with New Mexico State this week, favored by 9.5 after losing by 17 last week to Fresno State. Rivalry game too.
Miami (OH) also qualifies as 18.0 favorites over UMass after losing to Notre Dame 28-3
UNLV may have the inside track to a Group of 5 CFP spot Remember those Group of 5 upsets potentially leading to CFP berths. Well, Northern Illinois after upsetting Notre Dame lost in OT to a bad Buffalo team. Toledo followed up its blowout at Mississippi State with a 26-21 loss at Western Kentucky. And Memphis looked like a contender after beating Florida State got upset by Navy 56-44.
Perhaps the spot will go to UNLV. UNLV is 3-0. No head coach over the last 40+ years has come even close to having with a winning record. Until HC Barry Odom came along.
Odom is now 12-5 in his short time with the program, which includes a trip to the Mountain West Championship last season, a bowl appearance, with dominant wins over Big 12 teams Houston and Kansas. With a games against Syracuse from the ACC, Oregon State from the Pac 12 as well as home games against conference foes Fresno State and Boise State, the Rebels have a real shot at a CFP spot.
Perhaps the spot will go to UNLV. UNLV is 3-0. No head coach over the last 40+ years has come even close to having with a winning record. Until HC Barry Odom came along.
Odom is now 12-5 in his short time with the program, which includes a trip to the Mountain West Championship last season, a bowl appearance, with dominant wins over Big 12 teams Houston and Kansas. With a games against Syracuse from the ACC, Oregon State from the Pac 12 as well as home games against conference foes Fresno State and Boise State, the Rebels have a real shot at a CFP spot.
Purdue's defense is in shambles Here’s a Nickle's worth of picks:
Georgia -2.0 @ Alabama – The Dawgs have a had a week off to stew over the near loss to Kentucky and 9 months to stew over Bama QB Jalen Milroe calling them quitters. They’ll be fired up.
Kirby Smart is 31-16 ATS (66%) against ranked opponents, that also includes a 25-12 mark (67.6%) against the number as a favorite. Nobody is better against ranked opponents
Nebraska -10.0 @ Purdue – Purdue is a hot mess. Nebraska will come out hot after last weeks OT loss to Illinois. The Huskers will pound the ball against a terrible Purdue run defense for an easy win.
Navy -3.5 @ UAB – Even UAB HC Trent Dilfer admitted he has a terrible run defense. Not good when facing Navy. You have no offense either Trent. Navy rolls.
Georgia -2.0 @ Alabama – The Dawgs have a had a week off to stew over the near loss to Kentucky and 9 months to stew over Bama QB Jalen Milroe calling them quitters. They’ll be fired up.
Kirby Smart is 31-16 ATS (66%) against ranked opponents, that also includes a 25-12 mark (67.6%) against the number as a favorite. Nobody is better against ranked opponents
Nebraska -10.0 @ Purdue – Purdue is a hot mess. Nebraska will come out hot after last weeks OT loss to Illinois. The Huskers will pound the ball against a terrible Purdue run defense for an easy win.
Navy -3.5 @ UAB – Even UAB HC Trent Dilfer admitted he has a terrible run defense. Not good when facing Navy. You have no offense either Trent. Navy rolls.
Pat is already practicing for Go Jumbo South Florida +6.5 @ Tulane – I’m a little worried that South Florida may be distracted by Hurricane Helene but if they are focused – both teams can run the ball, South Florida is better defending it.
Eastern Michigan -14.0 @ Kent State – There’s bad, next level bad and then there’s Kent State, easily the worst team in Div 1A. The Flashers are down to their 3rd string QB. Both teams played 1AA St Francis. MU won 36-0. Kent State lost 26-17
For my Point Whore Parlay I’ll go with:
Akron +12.5 @ Ohio
South Alabama +22.5 @ LSU
Mississippi State +38.5 @ Texas
And for my Hold the Tables EPL bets – Bruce says I’ve been wasting money taking the hedges. He’s correct so far so I will go full Bruce with these two bets
Liverpool -340 @ Wolverhampton
And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2024 Week 5 Bettors Guide
And Remember, the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th at the Westgate SuperBook
Eastern Michigan -14.0 @ Kent State – There’s bad, next level bad and then there’s Kent State, easily the worst team in Div 1A. The Flashers are down to their 3rd string QB. Both teams played 1AA St Francis. MU won 36-0. Kent State lost 26-17
For my Point Whore Parlay I’ll go with:
Akron +12.5 @ Ohio
South Alabama +22.5 @ LSU
Mississippi State +38.5 @ Texas
And for my Hold the Tables EPL bets – Bruce says I’ve been wasting money taking the hedges. He’s correct so far so I will go full Bruce with these two bets
Liverpool -340 @ Wolverhampton
And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2024 Week 5 Bettors Guide
And Remember, the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th at the Westgate SuperBook
| 2024_week_5.xlsx |
