Notre Dame scored 66 points on exactly 66 plays Before we get into this week's picks, let's start out with looking at how last weeks investing trends panned out.
1. Last year, the Irish were 3-0 ATS after a SU loss. Result - Notre Dame easily covered beating Purdue 66-7, WIN. Should the Domers lose again, I’ll wager a quatloos or two. By the way, weird stat of the week. ND scored the 66 points on exactly 66 plays.
2. Iowa hosts Troy with a total under 40 (39.5) and favored by more that 20 (22.5). Over the last 20 years, teams in these situations have gone 16-25 ATS. Result - Iowa won 38-21 but did not cover WIN. Definitely worth looking out for
3. Colorado, scUM and NC State all lost by 14+ points last weekend and are favored by 7+ points this weekend. Since 2020, teams have gone 35-55-3 ATS in this scenario. The over went 53-39-1 Results:
Colorado covered 28-9 LOSS and went under 59.0 LOSS;
scUM won 28-18 but did not cover WIN and was just under the 47.5 LOSS (Weird stat #2, every throw by Michigan QB Davis Warren was caught by someone. He went 11 for 14, the three misses were three picks);
NC State won 30-20 but did not cover WIN and went just over 49.0 WIN. I’ll keep an eye on this one.
1. Last year, the Irish were 3-0 ATS after a SU loss. Result - Notre Dame easily covered beating Purdue 66-7, WIN. Should the Domers lose again, I’ll wager a quatloos or two. By the way, weird stat of the week. ND scored the 66 points on exactly 66 plays.
2. Iowa hosts Troy with a total under 40 (39.5) and favored by more that 20 (22.5). Over the last 20 years, teams in these situations have gone 16-25 ATS. Result - Iowa won 38-21 but did not cover WIN. Definitely worth looking out for
3. Colorado, scUM and NC State all lost by 14+ points last weekend and are favored by 7+ points this weekend. Since 2020, teams have gone 35-55-3 ATS in this scenario. The over went 53-39-1 Results:
Colorado covered 28-9 LOSS and went under 59.0 LOSS;
scUM won 28-18 but did not cover WIN and was just under the 47.5 LOSS (Weird stat #2, every throw by Michigan QB Davis Warren was caught by someone. He went 11 for 14, the three misses were three picks);
NC State won 30-20 but did not cover WIN and went just over 49.0 WIN. I’ll keep an eye on this one.
Davis Warren completed all his passes last week. Too bad three were to the other team This week's games with the same metric - North Texas lost to Texas Tech 66-21 last week and is favored by 9.0 over Wyoming. Colorado State lost to Colorado 28-9 and is favored by 10.0 over UTEP.
4. Teams favored by double-digits after a win as a double-digit 'dog in their previous game early in the season (first four games), are 51-37-1 ATS. Result - Cal won 31-10 and covered WIN
This week – two teams won as double digit dogs last week, Georgia State over Vandy and Toledo over Mississippi State. Neither will be in play as Toledo is -1.0 at Western Kentucky. Georgia State is on a bye.
5. Since 2020, in games where both teams are ranked, the favorite is 57% ATS. Results - #14 Kansas State covered vs #20 Arizona 31-7 WIN. # 5 Missouri won 27-21 but did not cover vs #24 Boston College LOSS. Split decision.
4. Teams favored by double-digits after a win as a double-digit 'dog in their previous game early in the season (first four games), are 51-37-1 ATS. Result - Cal won 31-10 and covered WIN
This week – two teams won as double digit dogs last week, Georgia State over Vandy and Toledo over Mississippi State. Neither will be in play as Toledo is -1.0 at Western Kentucky. Georgia State is on a bye.
5. Since 2020, in games where both teams are ranked, the favorite is 57% ATS. Results - #14 Kansas State covered vs #20 Arizona 31-7 WIN. # 5 Missouri won 27-21 but did not cover vs #24 Boston College LOSS. Split decision.
It was a bit breezy but Georgia State's upset over Vandy still went over This week we have 4 games, starting on Friday – #22 Nebraska favored by 8.5 over #24 Illinois. On Saturday at 3:30 #11 USC is favored by 6.0 at #18 Michigan. At 4:00 #12 Utah is an 2.5 point underdog at #14 Oklahoma State. Then the big game. At 7:30 #6 Tennessee travels to Oklahoma favored by 7.5. Will the hook be in play?
6. Since 2005, college games played in 13 MPH winds go 57% to the under. There were three games played in these conditions. App State @ East Carolina, Va Tech @ Old Dominion and Vanderbilt @ Georgia State. Results - The App State game went under the other two went over. I’ll hold off on this one until later in the season when the weather starts to really get nasty.
Some new ones to consider this week:
Oregon State is a 6.0 home favorite versus Purdue. Since 2021, they are 17-3 SU and 16-4 ATS at home - the best mark in the country. Since that 2021 mark, the Beavers are also 5-0 SU/ATS at home off a SU loss. Last week they lost to Oregon 49-14. I'll put a quatloo on this one to see if that streak continues.
Missouri is a huge 21.0 favorite versus Vandy this week. As a favorite of 17 pts or more, Missouri is 53-0 SU and 30-22-1 ATS (58%) since 1990.
6. Since 2005, college games played in 13 MPH winds go 57% to the under. There were three games played in these conditions. App State @ East Carolina, Va Tech @ Old Dominion and Vanderbilt @ Georgia State. Results - The App State game went under the other two went over. I’ll hold off on this one until later in the season when the weather starts to really get nasty.
Some new ones to consider this week:
Oregon State is a 6.0 home favorite versus Purdue. Since 2021, they are 17-3 SU and 16-4 ATS at home - the best mark in the country. Since that 2021 mark, the Beavers are also 5-0 SU/ATS at home off a SU loss. Last week they lost to Oregon 49-14. I'll put a quatloo on this one to see if that streak continues.
Missouri is a huge 21.0 favorite versus Vandy this week. As a favorite of 17 pts or more, Missouri is 53-0 SU and 30-22-1 ATS (58%) since 1990.
Fear Buzz as the Underdog Fear the Bee! Since 2022, Georgia Tech is 10-9 SU and 14-5 ATS as an underdog, including winning their last two games outright as dogs. GT heads to Louisville to face #19 Louisville as 10.5 underdogs. The Jackets have covered the spread in 7 of their last 8 games as underdogs vs. ranked opponents.
Miami (FL) goes up the road to South Florida this week in another in-state showdown. The Canes are listed as 17.5 point favorites. Over the past 20 years, the Canes are 15-4 ATS on the road against schools in the Sunshine State.
For my least favorite angle - USC travels to play in the Sh!thole as 6.0 favorites. The Condoms haven’t won a game in EST or CST since September 2012 against Syracuse - that's 8 straight losses SU. USC hasn't won and covered a game in EST or CST since 2011 against Notre Dame. I’m still picking USC.
Miami (FL) goes up the road to South Florida this week in another in-state showdown. The Canes are listed as 17.5 point favorites. Over the past 20 years, the Canes are 15-4 ATS on the road against schools in the Sunshine State.
For my least favorite angle - USC travels to play in the Sh!thole as 6.0 favorites. The Condoms haven’t won a game in EST or CST since September 2012 against Syracuse - that's 8 straight losses SU. USC hasn't won and covered a game in EST or CST since 2011 against Notre Dame. I’m still picking USC.
Kyron Hudson is more than a match for Michigan's secondary This week I’m going with a money line parlay at +108 starting with
USC over Michigan – Normally, I don’t bet on the Michigan game. I’m rooting against them anyway, why amp it up (not that there’s much more amping that could be done)
Nah, this is pure kicking them when they are down. That defense is not so tough not they they aren’t stealing signs. The secondary is getting bombed on. coverage has been poor by back seven, as Hill, Johnson and linebacker Ernest Hausmann have allowed catches on 35-of-49 targets for a combined 257 yards. Probably because the the DL is not getting to the quarterback.
And guess who has the defensive inside knowledge in this game. Michigan was supposed to take the defense up another notch with the hiring of Wink Martindale from the Ravens. That clearly hasn’t happened. On the other side, for USC is DC D’Antn Lynn. Lynn just happened to be Martindale’s secondary coach at the Ravens.
USC’s offense has not dropped off even after the loss of Caleb Williams. QB Miller Moss doesn’t have the gaudy stats but has developed a nice rapport with WR Kyron Hudson and slot receiver Zacariah Branch.
The Michigan offense is going to almost entirely one dimensional with the announcement that qb Alex Orji is going to start. The Wolvies already run at a 56% clip, expect even more.
USC has improved significantly in defending the rush and limiting missed tackles this year.
I’ll add to the parlay:
USC over Michigan – Normally, I don’t bet on the Michigan game. I’m rooting against them anyway, why amp it up (not that there’s much more amping that could be done)
Nah, this is pure kicking them when they are down. That defense is not so tough not they they aren’t stealing signs. The secondary is getting bombed on. coverage has been poor by back seven, as Hill, Johnson and linebacker Ernest Hausmann have allowed catches on 35-of-49 targets for a combined 257 yards. Probably because the the DL is not getting to the quarterback.
And guess who has the defensive inside knowledge in this game. Michigan was supposed to take the defense up another notch with the hiring of Wink Martindale from the Ravens. That clearly hasn’t happened. On the other side, for USC is DC D’Antn Lynn. Lynn just happened to be Martindale’s secondary coach at the Ravens.
USC’s offense has not dropped off even after the loss of Caleb Williams. QB Miller Moss doesn’t have the gaudy stats but has developed a nice rapport with WR Kyron Hudson and slot receiver Zacariah Branch.
The Michigan offense is going to almost entirely one dimensional with the announcement that qb Alex Orji is going to start. The Wolvies already run at a 56% clip, expect even more.
USC has improved significantly in defending the rush and limiting missed tackles this year.
I’ll add to the parlay:
Tennessee's defense has yet to let up a TD Tennessee over Oklahoma - This will mark the first time Oklahoma closes as an underdog of a field goal or more since upsetting No. 1 Nebraska back in 2000. As it happens, the Oklahoma QB in that game is Tennessee HC Josh Heupel while the DC for Oklahoma is current Sooner HC Brent Venables.
Oklahoma has been struggling this year. Up 21-0 in the 2nd quarter, the Sooners saw the Green Wave draw within 24-19 in the opening minute of the final stanza before scoring the final 10 points to secure the win.. The week before they narrowly escaped an average Houston team by a score of 16-12.
The passing attack is the main culprit as Oklahoma ranks 114th overall. The wide receiver room has been decimated with injuries as has the OL which is replacing 5 starters from last year.
Several players are expected to be back for this key game including WRs Noc Anthony and Andrel Anthony. Starting center Branson Hickman may also play. Oklahoma was down to their 4th string center. Still, how rusty will they be and will need to develop cohesion in a live fire game.
Tennessee has gaudy stats all over the chart but it has been against really pathetic competition. That said, the Vols deserve credit for dismantling all three opponents by a combined score of 191-13, an average score of 64-4. All the credit is going to their electric passing offense but the defense has stepped up too. They have yet to let up a TD all year, The lone TD was a pick six by NC State in Week 2.
Tennesse has to much firepower for a still heaing Oklahoma. If this game were being played in a couple week’s I’d consider taking the points (7.5). As it is, I’ll just take the money line.
Oklahoma has been struggling this year. Up 21-0 in the 2nd quarter, the Sooners saw the Green Wave draw within 24-19 in the opening minute of the final stanza before scoring the final 10 points to secure the win.. The week before they narrowly escaped an average Houston team by a score of 16-12.
The passing attack is the main culprit as Oklahoma ranks 114th overall. The wide receiver room has been decimated with injuries as has the OL which is replacing 5 starters from last year.
Several players are expected to be back for this key game including WRs Noc Anthony and Andrel Anthony. Starting center Branson Hickman may also play. Oklahoma was down to their 4th string center. Still, how rusty will they be and will need to develop cohesion in a live fire game.
Tennessee has gaudy stats all over the chart but it has been against really pathetic competition. That said, the Vols deserve credit for dismantling all three opponents by a combined score of 191-13, an average score of 64-4. All the credit is going to their electric passing offense but the defense has stepped up too. They have yet to let up a TD all year, The lone TD was a pick six by NC State in Week 2.
Tennesse has to much firepower for a still heaing Oklahoma. If this game were being played in a couple week’s I’d consider taking the points (7.5). As it is, I’ll just take the money line.
Reggie Love III was the lone bright spot for Purdue last week Purdue @ Oregon State over 51.0 - I’ll add to wager on Oregon State above. Purdue’s DL is a shambles. ND just pounded away at them last week for 364 yards at 8.5 yards per pop. The Beavers run at nearly the same rate as scUM 55% and rank in the Top 20 for Offensive line yards.
In reality, it’s the same way when the Boilers have the ball. They can run it fairly well and OSU is weak against the run. RB Reggie Love III ran for 6.1 yards per carry against ND. Purdue has an incredibly experienced offensive line that returns four starters and 165 career starts.
Oregon State returned just one starter on the defensive side of the ball, and that unit has struggled out of the gate. Oregon put 49 points up against the Beavers because they ran the ball for 7.5 yards per carry.
Both teams will have success running the ball and putting up efficient scoring drives. Poor defenses will lead to an over.
For this week’s Point Whore Parlay I’ll go with
Miami (OH) +28.0 @ Notre Dame
Georgia Tech +10.5 @ Louisville
Arkansas St +22.0 @ Iowa State
And for my Hold the Tables Premier League wager I'll go with
Aston Villa over Wolverhampton -170 and hedged with a tie at +340
And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2024 Week 4 Bettors Guide:
In reality, it’s the same way when the Boilers have the ball. They can run it fairly well and OSU is weak against the run. RB Reggie Love III ran for 6.1 yards per carry against ND. Purdue has an incredibly experienced offensive line that returns four starters and 165 career starts.
Oregon State returned just one starter on the defensive side of the ball, and that unit has struggled out of the gate. Oregon put 49 points up against the Beavers because they ran the ball for 7.5 yards per carry.
Both teams will have success running the ball and putting up efficient scoring drives. Poor defenses will lead to an over.
For this week’s Point Whore Parlay I’ll go with
Miami (OH) +28.0 @ Notre Dame
Georgia Tech +10.5 @ Louisville
Arkansas St +22.0 @ Iowa State
And for my Hold the Tables Premier League wager I'll go with
Aston Villa over Wolverhampton -170 and hedged with a tie at +340
And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2024 Week 4 Bettors Guide:
| 2024_week_4.xlsx |
Remember - the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th at the Westgate SuperBook
