Indiana trampled State just like the rest of their opponents We got crunched. I’ve always liked Cignetti as a coach and last week’s game shows why. I get it, he depleted a very good James Madison team, brought them to Bloomington and kept the party rolling. Can he keep it rolling once they leave? Sure, he got these guys to be that good at JMU. He’s never had a losing season. Cignetti is 23-9 ATS with Indiana and James Madison. including 18-1 SU and 16-3 ATS in his last 19 games coached. He finds his guys and with a maniacal focus on detail, gets the most out of his players.
This week, Indiana is double digit favorite vs. Michigan. The Hoosiers haven't been favored to beat Michigan in any football game since 1968, let alone a double digit favorite. Indiana is undefeated and is now on an 8-game SU and ATS win streak, the longest SU/ATS streak in the country. The only teams to be undefeated on this long a SU/ATS win streak since 2000:
- 2024 Indiana
- 2019 Ohio State
- 2002 Notre Dame
This week, Indiana is double digit favorite vs. Michigan. The Hoosiers haven't been favored to beat Michigan in any football game since 1968, let alone a double digit favorite. Indiana is undefeated and is now on an 8-game SU and ATS win streak, the longest SU/ATS streak in the country. The only teams to be undefeated on this long a SU/ATS win streak since 2000:
- 2024 Indiana
- 2019 Ohio State
- 2002 Notre Dame
5 of the 9 teams ranked 10-18 got spilled The leaves are changing, there’s a chill in the air which means it’s time for MACTION! In MAC conference games, outside of Saturday, double-digit favorites are 65-9 SU and 45-29 ATS over the last decade. Last year, they went 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS.
After all that wild action, though, the college football landscape looks awfully familiar. The top three teams in the preseason AP poll (Georgia, Ohio State and Oregon) are the top three teams now, albeit in a slightly different order.
But don't get cocky Oregon, during the 10 seasons of the four-team playoff, only Georgia in 2021 and Alabama in 2020 were ranked No. 1 in the initial ranking and also won the national title.
Of the nine teams ranked between 10th and 18th in last week's AP poll, five lost.
After all that wild action, though, the college football landscape looks awfully familiar. The top three teams in the preseason AP poll (Georgia, Ohio State and Oregon) are the top three teams now, albeit in a slightly different order.
But don't get cocky Oregon, during the 10 seasons of the four-team playoff, only Georgia in 2021 and Alabama in 2020 were ranked No. 1 in the initial ranking and also won the national title.
Of the nine teams ranked between 10th and 18th in last week's AP poll, five lost.
Including Clemson Among those was Clemson. The Tigers have not been in the CFP since 2020. When the field was expanded to 12 teams this year, it seemed like a way to get the Tigers back among the nation’s elite programs. But, after Louiville went into Death Valley and beat Clemson (for the first time ever), the field might not be big enough to include the Fighting Dabos.
Clemson heads to Va Tech this week to play the James Franklin team of the ACC. Since 2010, the Hokies are 3-20 SU and 8-15 ATS vs. top-15 teams in the country, including 1-13 SU and 5-9 AST over the last decade.
Meanwhile, also in the ACC, first year member SMU, looks to make it to Charlotte. The Mustangs blew out #18 Pitt, the Panthers first loss on the season SMU and Miami (FL) are going to be tough to catch in the ACC. SMU's only loss is to BYU which will factor in the final CFP poll. They currently sit at 13, just outside the playoffs.
Clemson heads to Va Tech this week to play the James Franklin team of the ACC. Since 2010, the Hokies are 3-20 SU and 8-15 ATS vs. top-15 teams in the country, including 1-13 SU and 5-9 AST over the last decade.
Meanwhile, also in the ACC, first year member SMU, looks to make it to Charlotte. The Mustangs blew out #18 Pitt, the Panthers first loss on the season SMU and Miami (FL) are going to be tough to catch in the ACC. SMU's only loss is to BYU which will factor in the final CFP poll. They currently sit at 13, just outside the playoffs.
Baylor has won three straight In the Big 12, 5th year Baylor HC Dave Aranda looked to be on his way out after going 3-9 last year and starting this year at 2-4. But the Bears have rallied with three straight wins after besting TCU on a walk off FG to win 37-34. Keep in mind that, Baylor lost on a Hail Mary to Colorado on Sept. 22. If not for that play, this team easily could have been among the jumble of league contenders right now.
Over in the BIg 10, Nebraska HC Matt Rhule is doing the opposite of Baylor. He started out 5-0 and now has lost two straight. Last year he started out 5-3 only to lose his last four. Scott Frost 2.0?
Tennessee’s first half scoring continues to struggle. Against Florida, Arkansas and Alabama, they were shut out in the 30 minutes. Last week vs. Kentucky, they scored just 7 points.
Miami (FL) travels to Bobby Dodd this week. Through Georgia Tech's ups and downs, their home field has been relatively consistent. It's 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games dating back to last year, Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS vs. Georgia Tech, dating back to 2017,
The Canes will have the revenge angle though. Last year they stupidly ran it with 41 seconds to go instead of going into the victory formation. Miami (FL) fumbled and Tech recovered. And then a miracle happened.
Over in the BIg 10, Nebraska HC Matt Rhule is doing the opposite of Baylor. He started out 5-0 and now has lost two straight. Last year he started out 5-3 only to lose his last four. Scott Frost 2.0?
Tennessee’s first half scoring continues to struggle. Against Florida, Arkansas and Alabama, they were shut out in the 30 minutes. Last week vs. Kentucky, they scored just 7 points.
Miami (FL) travels to Bobby Dodd this week. Through Georgia Tech's ups and downs, their home field has been relatively consistent. It's 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games dating back to last year, Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS vs. Georgia Tech, dating back to 2017,
The Canes will have the revenge angle though. Last year they stupidly ran it with 41 seconds to go instead of going into the victory formation. Miami (FL) fumbled and Tech recovered. And then a miracle happened.
The Sax Man is still smiling.
Bama has lost two of their last three Last week I went 6-5 for a small profit. I was 6-4 in college ball and lost my only NFL game (again). I'll definitely be dialing back the investing on Sunday. Maybe I'll just do prop bets.
This week I'm going to lean into the "take the underdogs in SEC play". Dogs in SEC conference games are 29-12-1 ATS so far this season. Road dogs are 16-3-1 ATS in conference games.
1. LSU +3.0 vs Alabama - Bama just isn't clicking this year. It's also a revenge game for LSU. The Tigers are14-6 ATS (70%) in revenge mode since 2016. It's also a ranked vs. ranked game. In ranked games, since 2017, home teams are now 160-109-8 ATS.
2. Mississippi +2.5 vs Georgia - Something is wrong with Carson Beck. Over the last two games he has thrown two touchdowns to six interceptions. The best unit on the field is the Ole Miss defense. They will hound Beck who sorely misses TE Brock Bowers.
But I will go against the "Take Vandy when a dog" this week with
3. South Carolina -3.5 @ Vanderbilt - The market has caught on to Vandy. Time to sell on a high. The Gamecock elite defensive front will give fits to a Vanderbilt offense which has already had issues moving the football. South Carolina is on a 12-5 ATS winning streak as favorites.
This week I'm going to lean into the "take the underdogs in SEC play". Dogs in SEC conference games are 29-12-1 ATS so far this season. Road dogs are 16-3-1 ATS in conference games.
1. LSU +3.0 vs Alabama - Bama just isn't clicking this year. It's also a revenge game for LSU. The Tigers are14-6 ATS (70%) in revenge mode since 2016. It's also a ranked vs. ranked game. In ranked games, since 2017, home teams are now 160-109-8 ATS.
2. Mississippi +2.5 vs Georgia - Something is wrong with Carson Beck. Over the last two games he has thrown two touchdowns to six interceptions. The best unit on the field is the Ole Miss defense. They will hound Beck who sorely misses TE Brock Bowers.
But I will go against the "Take Vandy when a dog" this week with
3. South Carolina -3.5 @ Vanderbilt - The market has caught on to Vandy. Time to sell on a high. The Gamecock elite defensive front will give fits to a Vanderbilt offense which has already had issues moving the football. South Carolina is on a 12-5 ATS winning streak as favorites.
While Rutgers has lost 4 straight 4. Minnesota -6.5 @ Rutgers - Two teams headed in opposite directions. The Gophers have won four straight. Rutgers has lost four straight. The Scarlet Knights are on a 1-10 ATS skid as Big Ten home underdog.
5. Penn State -13,5 vs Washington - Franklin may blow it in big games but he gives the Carlo Rizzi treatment to the rest. He's 43-26-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite. Penn State will run over a bad Husky run defense. Over the past six weeks, UW has also traveled to road games against Rutgers, Iowa and Indiana with the latter two each ending as losses by at least two touchdowns.
6. Western Kentucky 18.0 @ New Mexico State - Playing the revenge angle here. WEstern Kentucky is a good Fun Belt team (7-2 with a close loss to Boston College) while NMSU sucks (2-7 including a win over a Div 1AA team). Teams looking for revenge as double digit favorites are 51-38 ATS. If they have four or more wins than their opponent they are 75-32-5 ATS.
7. Tulane -27.0 vs Temple - Temple is a train wreck. Their schedule has been Chrmin soft and are still 2-6/ In hte three games against teams with a (Oklahoma, Navy and Army) they were outscored 131-28. All three would have covered this spread. Tulane is as good or better.
And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2024 Week 11 Bettors Guide
5. Penn State -13,5 vs Washington - Franklin may blow it in big games but he gives the Carlo Rizzi treatment to the rest. He's 43-26-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite. Penn State will run over a bad Husky run defense. Over the past six weeks, UW has also traveled to road games against Rutgers, Iowa and Indiana with the latter two each ending as losses by at least two touchdowns.
6. Western Kentucky 18.0 @ New Mexico State - Playing the revenge angle here. WEstern Kentucky is a good Fun Belt team (7-2 with a close loss to Boston College) while NMSU sucks (2-7 including a win over a Div 1AA team). Teams looking for revenge as double digit favorites are 51-38 ATS. If they have four or more wins than their opponent they are 75-32-5 ATS.
7. Tulane -27.0 vs Temple - Temple is a train wreck. Their schedule has been Chrmin soft and are still 2-6/ In hte three games against teams with a (Oklahoma, Navy and Army) they were outscored 131-28. All three would have covered this spread. Tulane is as good or better.
And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2024 Week 11 Bettors Guide
| 2024_week_11.xlsx |
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