The Sax Man is still telling me "I told you so" It’s the first full weekend of College Football! Watching Tech upset FSU was a blast but it just wanted you wanting more. Much like that co-ed upstairs, it was a pure tease.
Now you can get the full monty of games. Everyone is in the pool!
The Sax Man was worried about facing Georgia State next but perhaps for the wrong reason You see, it’s a common misconception that teams with a game under their belt have an advantage over teams playing for the first time. Teams make the most progress between games 1 and 2 is what is touted.
Well, the results disagree. If you factor out teams playing Div 1AA in their first game and look at just teams coming out of a game vs a Div 1A team (Tech and FSU qualify here as does Nevada), teams playing their second game are 34-60 ATS or 36%.
Based on that trend alone I’m picking Georgia State +22.0 (no quatloos though), Troy -9.5 (I’ll lay a quatloos) and Boston College +17.0 (another quatloo) in the weekend ending game. By the way, it’s a small sample size but teams playing a conference game in their second game in this scenario (FSU) are 3-14 ATS. Make that 2 quatloos on the Eagles.
The biggest game of the weekend is the first game on Saturday
Now you can get the full monty of games. Everyone is in the pool!
The Sax Man was worried about facing Georgia State next but perhaps for the wrong reason You see, it’s a common misconception that teams with a game under their belt have an advantage over teams playing for the first time. Teams make the most progress between games 1 and 2 is what is touted.
Well, the results disagree. If you factor out teams playing Div 1AA in their first game and look at just teams coming out of a game vs a Div 1A team (Tech and FSU qualify here as does Nevada), teams playing their second game are 34-60 ATS or 36%.
Based on that trend alone I’m picking Georgia State +22.0 (no quatloos though), Troy -9.5 (I’ll lay a quatloos) and Boston College +17.0 (another quatloo) in the weekend ending game. By the way, it’s a small sample size but teams playing a conference game in their second game in this scenario (FSU) are 3-14 ATS. Make that 2 quatloos on the Eagles.
The biggest game of the weekend is the first game on Saturday
I just don't trust Cade Klubnik to beat Georgia Georgia -13.5 vs Clemson (Atlanta) – Two teams with multiple National titles kick off in the noon game. UGA has owned Clemson over the years (43-18-4). Defenses ruled the last time these teams played back in 2021 as Georgia won 10-3 game with the only touchdown scored by the defense.
Dabo’s maniacal refusal to use the transfer portal to bolster his team has left him with a thin, top-heavy roster. Clemson QB Cade Klubnik was awful last year and has to improve in year 2 of OC Garrett Riley’s system. Riley has all of his main skill-position players back, and returns four starters on the offensive line as well.
He likes to play fast, the Tigers were 21st in seconds per play last season, while Georgia will play slow and try to control the tempo.
The Bulldogs have lost a little bit in the skill-position department from last year including a huge hole left by TE Brock Bowers, but head coach Kirby Smart reloads as he always does including bringing in Florida RB Trevor Etienne, Stanford TE Benjamin Yurosek and Miami WR Colbie Young.
Word is, is that Etienne will be suspended. As Steve Spurrier famously said “I sort of always liked playing them that second game because you could always count on them having two or three key players suspended." It may not be the second game but the quote still applies.
Georgia’s passing game is efficient but not explosive (115th last year) something the Clemson DL hopes to exploit. Clemson will bring the heat expecting that the won’t be beat over the top.
But I’ll go with Georiga to cover. I just don’t trust Klubnik to beat the #1 team in the land still fuming about being left out of the playoffs. I’ll lay a quatloo.
Dabo’s maniacal refusal to use the transfer portal to bolster his team has left him with a thin, top-heavy roster. Clemson QB Cade Klubnik was awful last year and has to improve in year 2 of OC Garrett Riley’s system. Riley has all of his main skill-position players back, and returns four starters on the offensive line as well.
He likes to play fast, the Tigers were 21st in seconds per play last season, while Georgia will play slow and try to control the tempo.
The Bulldogs have lost a little bit in the skill-position department from last year including a huge hole left by TE Brock Bowers, but head coach Kirby Smart reloads as he always does including bringing in Florida RB Trevor Etienne, Stanford TE Benjamin Yurosek and Miami WR Colbie Young.
Word is, is that Etienne will be suspended. As Steve Spurrier famously said “I sort of always liked playing them that second game because you could always count on them having two or three key players suspended." It may not be the second game but the quote still applies.
Georgia’s passing game is efficient but not explosive (115th last year) something the Clemson DL hopes to exploit. Clemson will bring the heat expecting that the won’t be beat over the top.
But I’ll go with Georiga to cover. I just don’t trust Klubnik to beat the #1 team in the land still fuming about being left out of the playoffs. I’ll lay a quatloo.
Martinez was a bulldozer for the Beavers The afternoon games are highlighted by:
Florida +2.5 vs Miami (FL) - Preseason expectations have the Canes and the Gators heading in opposite directions. Florida HC Billy Napier has the hottest seat in college football after finishing below .500 in consecutive seasons at Florida. This season, he has to keep his job despite having the toughest strength of schedule in the nation, having to play UCF. FSU and a brutal second-half SEC stretch.
Miami (FL) HC Mario Cristobal enters his third season in Coral Gables, also bringing a losing record into 2024. Cristobal has leveraged the portal, bringing in two consecutive top-10 hauls including additions at QB (Cam Ward Washington St) and RB (Damien Martinez Oregon St). The Canes are expected to make the ACC Championship game and compete for a spot in the CFP.’
Florida +2.5 vs Miami (FL) - Preseason expectations have the Canes and the Gators heading in opposite directions. Florida HC Billy Napier has the hottest seat in college football after finishing below .500 in consecutive seasons at Florida. This season, he has to keep his job despite having the toughest strength of schedule in the nation, having to play UCF. FSU and a brutal second-half SEC stretch.
Miami (FL) HC Mario Cristobal enters his third season in Coral Gables, also bringing a losing record into 2024. Cristobal has leveraged the portal, bringing in two consecutive top-10 hauls including additions at QB (Cam Ward Washington St) and RB (Damien Martinez Oregon St). The Canes are expected to make the ACC Championship game and compete for a spot in the CFP.’
While Cam Ward like to put it on the ground Martinez was a bulldozer for the Beavers, rushing for more than 2,100 yards in two years of service. Ward however, is a threat to his own team, generating 79 turnover-worthy plays alongside 71 big-time throws. Plus he has 46 fumbles along side his 16 career rushing touchdowns.
Ward will benefit from playing behind an OL that was rated 10th last year in pass protection, returning 120 starts and nearly every snap.
Graham Mertz has resurrected his career at Florida having his lowest lowest turnover-worthy play rate. HE will be throwing to a familiar face as WR Chimere Dike transferred in from Badgerland.
The loss of RB Trevor Etienne to UGA is a setback, but lead rusher Montrell Johnson Jr. racked up five touchdowns and 3.5 yards after contact.
The Gators will have their hands full with a Hurricanes defensive line that projects as the best in the ACC. Still, while Martinez should keep Miami's chains moving, the Florida rushing attack lacks a similar potency.
I’m going to take the home underdogs primarily do to Wards propensity to screw things up. No quatloos though since everywhere else, the Canes are superior to the Gators.
Ward will benefit from playing behind an OL that was rated 10th last year in pass protection, returning 120 starts and nearly every snap.
Graham Mertz has resurrected his career at Florida having his lowest lowest turnover-worthy play rate. HE will be throwing to a familiar face as WR Chimere Dike transferred in from Badgerland.
The loss of RB Trevor Etienne to UGA is a setback, but lead rusher Montrell Johnson Jr. racked up five touchdowns and 3.5 yards after contact.
The Gators will have their hands full with a Hurricanes defensive line that projects as the best in the ACC. Still, while Martinez should keep Miami's chains moving, the Florida rushing attack lacks a similar potency.
I’m going to take the home underdogs primarily do to Wards propensity to screw things up. No quatloos though since everywhere else, the Canes are superior to the Gators.
NDs defense will create plenty of havoc The evenings best game is
Texas A&M vs Notre Dame Under 47.5 - There will be no shortage of personal connections when Notre Dame travels south to face Texas A&M.
New Aggies HC Mike Elko was the DC at Notre Dame before taking the same position in College Station. The A&M staff is full of Elko former assistants at Duke, Those assistants should have plenty of data on the makeup of the Notre Dame roster, as the Elko-led Blue Devils faced Notre Dame last September.
Notre Dame C Marcus Freeman was successful in landing a quarterback from the transfer portal. Dukes Riley Leonard. Notre Dame OC Mike Denbrock returns to South Bend after leading LSU's offense with Hisman trophy -winning QB Jayden Daniels. He was last seen rattling the Aggies for 42 points to close out the 2023 regular season.
Texas A&M vs Notre Dame Under 47.5 - There will be no shortage of personal connections when Notre Dame travels south to face Texas A&M.
New Aggies HC Mike Elko was the DC at Notre Dame before taking the same position in College Station. The A&M staff is full of Elko former assistants at Duke, Those assistants should have plenty of data on the makeup of the Notre Dame roster, as the Elko-led Blue Devils faced Notre Dame last September.
Notre Dame C Marcus Freeman was successful in landing a quarterback from the transfer portal. Dukes Riley Leonard. Notre Dame OC Mike Denbrock returns to South Bend after leading LSU's offense with Hisman trophy -winning QB Jayden Daniels. He was last seen rattling the Aggies for 42 points to close out the 2023 regular season.
As will the Agiges Leonard is a dual threat QB who had over 1,000 yards throwing and 250 yards rushing in seven games before a mid season ankle injury ended his season. He’s fully healthy and will lead an offense with plenty of carryover at the skill positions, including RB Jadarian, TE Mitchell Evans and slot receiver Jaden Greenhouse.
The OL took a hit however with the loss of Joe Alt and Blake Fisher to the NFL. Notre Dame is also expected to field one of the nastiest defensive lines in the country under Freeman's 3-3-5. They face an Aggie OL that finished outside the top 100 in pass protection
A&M HC Mike Elko nabbed OC Collin Klein from Kansas State and is expected mimic the Wildcats' scheme utilizing plenty of 21 and 22 personnel with a heavy lean toward the rush. RB Le'Veon Moss will take on the workhorse role with an injury to rising star Rueben Owens
Notre Dame and Texas A&M will continue to rank top-10 nationally in defensive havoc. pass breakups, interceptions, tackles for loss, forced fumbles, pressures and sacks. Staples of two programs that have defensive-minded head coaches.
I’m going pass on taking the line but take the under 47.5 for a mini mega
The OL took a hit however with the loss of Joe Alt and Blake Fisher to the NFL. Notre Dame is also expected to field one of the nastiest defensive lines in the country under Freeman's 3-3-5. They face an Aggie OL that finished outside the top 100 in pass protection
A&M HC Mike Elko nabbed OC Collin Klein from Kansas State and is expected mimic the Wildcats' scheme utilizing plenty of 21 and 22 personnel with a heavy lean toward the rush. RB Le'Veon Moss will take on the workhorse role with an injury to rising star Rueben Owens
Notre Dame and Texas A&M will continue to rank top-10 nationally in defensive havoc. pass breakups, interceptions, tackles for loss, forced fumbles, pressures and sacks. Staples of two programs that have defensive-minded head coaches.
I’m going pass on taking the line but take the under 47.5 for a mini mega
Bruce has indicated that I should go with Liverpool -115 win, +310 draw vs Man U. He's a big a fan of Liverpool as we are of State so he may be going with his heart. I still like it though. I'll also add Man City -250 to beat West Ham with a +425 to draw.
Remember, the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th at the Westgate SuperBook
And for all the games, times, picks and much much more here is the 2024 Week 1 Bettors Guide
Remember, the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th at the Westgate SuperBook
And for all the games, times, picks and much much more here is the 2024 Week 1 Bettors Guide
| 2024_week_1.xlsx |
