It's Bo Nis's first playoff game, on the road, in the cold Buffalo -13.5 vs Denver +166 – Don’t over think this one. It’s going to be a blow out. Denver doesn’t belong in the playoffs and f they didn’t expand the playoffs, they would not be here.
Denver has just one true win over a playoff team. That was early this season against the Bucs, before anyone thought they were a playoff team — and no, the Chiefs in Week 18 don't count. The Broncos were 1-6 against teams with 10+ wins this season.
Denver QB Bo Nix had a strong rookie season, but he's still a rookie starting in his first playoff game, on the road, in cold weather. There's also questions as to the quality of defenses Nix has faced, with Denver facing the eighth-easiest opposing defensive schedule.
Buffalo loves to play two-high safety zone looks, which should keep explosive plays down for the Broncos. Nix tends to struggle against zone coverages as well, throwing nine of his 12 interceptions this year against zone.
Denver has just one true win over a playoff team. That was early this season against the Bucs, before anyone thought they were a playoff team — and no, the Chiefs in Week 18 don't count. The Broncos were 1-6 against teams with 10+ wins this season.
Denver QB Bo Nix had a strong rookie season, but he's still a rookie starting in his first playoff game, on the road, in cold weather. There's also questions as to the quality of defenses Nix has faced, with Denver facing the eighth-easiest opposing defensive schedule.
Buffalo loves to play two-high safety zone looks, which should keep explosive plays down for the Broncos. Nix tends to struggle against zone coverages as well, throwing nine of his 12 interceptions this year against zone.
Don't over think it - Buffalo is going to dominate Matchups like these are typically blow outs. Home favorites of 9+ points are 10-1 ATS in the Wild Card Round, with an average win of over 17 PPG and a median win of 17.5 points. That's where this line likely closes, for teaser protection.
The Wild Card Round has been home to many big margins in recent years. Over the past three postseasons, 11 of 18 games this round have finished with a margin of 14 or higher, with a median point differential of 16 points and an average margin of victory of 14.4 PPG.
The expanded playoff field has only increased the gap between the haves and the have-nots. Only one 7-seed ever has even won a game in the NFL playoffs; they're 1-8 straight up and usually lose by a couple of scores.
The spread is 7.5 but I’m going to tease it up to 13.5 at +166
I’ll also take the Bills at the first half
Buffalo -4.5 vs Denver first half. And
Buffalo team total 30.5+ at +124
The Wild Card Round has been home to many big margins in recent years. Over the past three postseasons, 11 of 18 games this round have finished with a margin of 14 or higher, with a median point differential of 16 points and an average margin of victory of 14.4 PPG.
The expanded playoff field has only increased the gap between the haves and the have-nots. Only one 7-seed ever has even won a game in the NFL playoffs; they're 1-8 straight up and usually lose by a couple of scores.
The spread is 7.5 but I’m going to tease it up to 13.5 at +166
I’ll also take the Bills at the first half
Buffalo -4.5 vs Denver first half. And
Buffalo team total 30.5+ at +124
