Washington opened it up with McLaurin in week 16 vs the Eagles. Washington +6 @ Philadelphia - The consensus is that the Commanders have had a nice run but will likely be taken care of by the Eagles. Yet, Philadelphia has been outgained in both of its playoff games and in four of its last five games. Last week against LA, the Eagles scored touchdowns on plays of 78, 62 and 44 yards. Outside of those plays, they gained 166 yards on 58 plays for 2.9 yards per play. Could it be that Philly is living dangerously. Sure, you can expect impressive long touchdown runs from Saquon Barkley here and there, but that’s not a sustainable recipe for success.
When these teams first met back in week 11, the Eagles were able to contain the Commanders offense as OC Kliff Kingsbury didn’t move Terry McLaurin around too much (1 catch for 10 yds).
In the second matchup in week 16, Philadelphia was on its way to a blowout win before Hurts suffered a concussion. The defense, though, got torched by Jayden Daniels.
When these teams first met back in week 11, the Eagles were able to contain the Commanders offense as OC Kliff Kingsbury didn’t move Terry McLaurin around too much (1 catch for 10 yds).
In the second matchup in week 16, Philadelphia was on its way to a blowout win before Hurts suffered a concussion. The defense, though, got torched by Jayden Daniels.
LA outgained Philly last week. In their 36-33 comeback victory, the Commanders converted 54% of third-down attempts and were 2-of-3 on fourth. Despite giving up over 200 rushing yards to the Eagles offense, the Washington offense actually ran for more first downs and converted key situations at a much higher rate than did the Eagles.
Last week against the Rams, The Eagles were out-gained 402-350 last week. The Philadelphia defense is very good, but it's not invincible.
Daniels has improved greatly since that first Eagles matchup and continues to trend up. He shouldn’t have to deal with the snow that the Rams did last week and will have a great opportunity to have a big game against an Eagles team that has a lot of question marks around it.
As an underdog, Daniels is 5-2-1 (71.4%) against the spread and has covered by 7.8 points per game. As a favorite of four or more points, Hurts is 15-20-2 (43%). Over the past two seasons, that record is just 6-12-1 for Hurts.
Road teams are 2-8 straight up this postseason, and both wins belong to Daniels.
Midnight is still not here for Cinderella. I’ll take Washington to cover.
Last week against the Rams, The Eagles were out-gained 402-350 last week. The Philadelphia defense is very good, but it's not invincible.
Daniels has improved greatly since that first Eagles matchup and continues to trend up. He shouldn’t have to deal with the snow that the Rams did last week and will have a great opportunity to have a big game against an Eagles team that has a lot of question marks around it.
As an underdog, Daniels is 5-2-1 (71.4%) against the spread and has covered by 7.8 points per game. As a favorite of four or more points, Hurts is 15-20-2 (43%). Over the past two seasons, that record is just 6-12-1 for Hurts.
Road teams are 2-8 straight up this postseason, and both wins belong to Daniels.
Midnight is still not here for Cinderella. I’ll take Washington to cover.
Don't outthink it - take Sqauon and the yards I’ll stay away from the over under but I will make a few prop bets.
Jayden Daniels over 21.5 completions - Daniels has gone over this number in all eight of his last full games played. Against the Eagles he had 22 and 24 completions.
The weather looks good for Sunday with no snow in the forecast unlike last week in Philadelphia. It’s also a bit of a hedge bet in that if Washington is trailing you can expect even more pass attempts.
Saquon Barkley over 127.5 yards rushing - The O/U for Barkley’s rushing yards prop is the highest in history. Although opposing defenses know the run is coming, that hasn't stopped Barkley from rushing for 2,005 yards in the regular season despite facing a light box on just 18.6% of attempts.
Jayden Daniels over 21.5 completions - Daniels has gone over this number in all eight of his last full games played. Against the Eagles he had 22 and 24 completions.
The weather looks good for Sunday with no snow in the forecast unlike last week in Philadelphia. It’s also a bit of a hedge bet in that if Washington is trailing you can expect even more pass attempts.
Saquon Barkley over 127.5 yards rushing - The O/U for Barkley’s rushing yards prop is the highest in history. Although opposing defenses know the run is coming, that hasn't stopped Barkley from rushing for 2,005 yards in the regular season despite facing a light box on just 18.6% of attempts.
The Rams knew the Eagles would rely on their ground game in wintry conditions last week and they still couldn't contain Barkley, who gashed them for 205 yards on 26 carries. Meanwhile, the Commanders were gashed on the ground in their Divisional Round game, surrendering 201 yards to Detroit.
The Commanders have struggled against the run all season, ranking 30th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (137.5) and 27th in defensive rush EPA. They are also dead-last in the league in average yards allowed before contact to running backs, and Barkley ranks first with 2.64 yards before contact.
Don’t outthink it. Go with Saquon to get his yards.
The Commanders have struggled against the run all season, ranking 30th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (137.5) and 27th in defensive rush EPA. They are also dead-last in the league in average yards allowed before contact to running backs, and Barkley ranks first with 2.64 yards before contact.
Don’t outthink it. Go with Saquon to get his yards.
