Riley Leonard can be a little erratic passing Ohio State -8.5 vs Ntre Dame and
Ohio State vs Notre Dame over 45.5 – Every analytic I look at says this should be a tight low scoring game so I’ve decided “screw it” I’ll take Ohio State to cover and the over.
Lets start with why Notre Dame should cover. It aligns with the game being the under. Ohio State owns the nation’s No. 1 scoring defense (12.2 ppg) — and Notre Dame ranks No. 2 (14.3 ppg) The Irish have arguably the best secondary in the country. They're loaded with NFL talent, and we saw what the Texas secondary did against these Buckeyes receivers last week. Jeremiah Smith was held to one catch for three yards. They held the Penn State WRs to zero catches – none nada.
The Buckeyes are more talented but are mis-coached by OC Chip Kelly and HC Ryan Day. Despite an uber talented receiving corps, the duo of dunces have relied too much on a power running attack when they should be speeding up the tempo and spreading the ball around in space to their playmakers.
Ohio State vs Notre Dame over 45.5 – Every analytic I look at says this should be a tight low scoring game so I’ve decided “screw it” I’ll take Ohio State to cover and the over.
Lets start with why Notre Dame should cover. It aligns with the game being the under. Ohio State owns the nation’s No. 1 scoring defense (12.2 ppg) — and Notre Dame ranks No. 2 (14.3 ppg) The Irish have arguably the best secondary in the country. They're loaded with NFL talent, and we saw what the Texas secondary did against these Buckeyes receivers last week. Jeremiah Smith was held to one catch for three yards. They held the Penn State WRs to zero catches – none nada.
The Buckeyes are more talented but are mis-coached by OC Chip Kelly and HC Ryan Day. Despite an uber talented receiving corps, the duo of dunces have relied too much on a power running attack when they should be speeding up the tempo and spreading the ball around in space to their playmakers.
Ryan and Kelly are mismanaging the offense These two met last year in Columbus in a tight 17-14. The Domers were not physically overwhelmed in that game, and the yardage totals (356-351 OSU) tell the story of a game that was every bit as close as the score indicated. The loss that day is just another source of fuel that head coach Marcus Freeman figures to utilize to motivate his team for Monday night. Keep in mind Notre Dame is 14-0-1 ATS in revenge games.
Notre Dame’s only chance to pull the upset is to muddy up the game. Also neither offense goes very fast in tempo, so if both teams rely on their ground games it should be low scoring which favors Notre Dame as well.
Therefore, I’ll go completely against everything I say and take Ohio State and the over.
I’ll rely on Notre Dame bragging about staying in man coverage which means plenty of opportunities for Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka plus running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins in one-on-one matchups. Ohio State likes to start out fast, If the Buckeyes build an early lead, they could run away with it in the second half. The Irish do not have a big-play offense that can erase big deficits. ND QB Riley Leonard can be an erratic passer relying on his feet to keep them in the game. Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles will be aggressive and on the attack.
Notre Dame’s only chance to pull the upset is to muddy up the game. Also neither offense goes very fast in tempo, so if both teams rely on their ground games it should be low scoring which favors Notre Dame as well.
Therefore, I’ll go completely against everything I say and take Ohio State and the over.
I’ll rely on Notre Dame bragging about staying in man coverage which means plenty of opportunities for Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka plus running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins in one-on-one matchups. Ohio State likes to start out fast, If the Buckeyes build an early lead, they could run away with it in the second half. The Irish do not have a big-play offense that can erase big deficits. ND QB Riley Leonard can be an erratic passer relying on his feet to keep them in the game. Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles will be aggressive and on the attack.
It's Egbuka's last game in the Scarlet and Grey With this in mind I’ll make a couple of parlay bets too
Emeka Egbuka Over 57.5 Receiving Yards - In big games, they will feed him. He is about to play his last game in scarlet and gray and “Big Game Mek” will be the primary beneficiary of extra attention to Jeremiah Smith.
Aneyas Williams 41.5 Rush + Receiving Yards - Ohio State just surrendered 101 receiving yards to Texas’ backfield duo of Jaydon Blue and Quintrevion Wisner, and that wasn’t the first time Ohio State’s opponents used running backs to great effect in the passing game. Penn State (54 yards) and Oregon (37 yards) also took advantage of Ohio State’s linebackers in space.
Ohio States defense will set up plenty of Jeter FGs ND K Mitch Jeter Over 5.5 Kicking Points - Playing indoors creates a more friendly environment for FG kicking and can stretch a kicker’s range. Jeter has been accurate in the playoffs, going 7-for-8 on FG attempts and 8-for-8 on extra points for 29 points. This includes a 100% hit rate from the 40-49 yard range. The Ohio State defense ranks #1 in Finishing Drives, which means Notre Dame may be settling for field goals after long drives.
First Half Total under 22.5 – A little hedging here n the full game over. Ohio State has not allowed a touchdown in the first 25 minutes of any playoff game so far. The first half of Ohio State-Texas was pacing for an under, but TreVeyon Henderson turned a screen pass into a 75-yard touchdown, which is more of a fluky event. Meanwhile, Notre Dame’s three playoff games have all gone under the 1H total.
Remember the 2025 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 15th at the Westgate SUperBook
And don't forget your drink coupons
First Half Total under 22.5 – A little hedging here n the full game over. Ohio State has not allowed a touchdown in the first 25 minutes of any playoff game so far. The first half of Ohio State-Texas was pacing for an under, but TreVeyon Henderson turned a screen pass into a 75-yard touchdown, which is more of a fluky event. Meanwhile, Notre Dame’s three playoff games have all gone under the 1H total.
Remember the 2025 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 15th at the Westgate SUperBook
And don't forget your drink coupons
