Texas' defense may be a bit overrrated I learned my lesson. Once again the under was looking good at the half and even better after 3. And then the 4th quarter happens. In Texas vs ASU it took a doink and OT and I lost the under. Last night, after scoring 20 points in the first three quarter, the fourth quarter opens up with four straight TDs. Arrrgh! From now on if I feel the under thunder, I’ll just do it for the first half.
Ohio State -6.0 vs Texas – There wasn’t a dominant team in college football this season... until the Ohio State Buckeyes hit the CFP, obliterating Tennessee and Oregon in the first two rounds.
Meanwhile, Texas has looked shaky in its CFP run, with its defense giving up explosive play after explosive play to Clemson and Arizona State. The Horns were a bad non-targeting call away from not being in the Cotton Bowl.
The spread opened at 4.5 but has ballooned to 6.0 based on the OSU performance.
Ohio State -6.0 vs Texas – There wasn’t a dominant team in college football this season... until the Ohio State Buckeyes hit the CFP, obliterating Tennessee and Oregon in the first two rounds.
Meanwhile, Texas has looked shaky in its CFP run, with its defense giving up explosive play after explosive play to Clemson and Arizona State. The Horns were a bad non-targeting call away from not being in the Cotton Bowl.
The spread opened at 4.5 but has ballooned to 6.0 based on the OSU performance.
While OSU has determined that airborne is the way to go So the question is, is the spread too big and victim to recency bias. Would you prefer to have Steve Sarkisian and Quinn Ewers in a big game over Ryan Day and Will Howard? And don’t forget, this is basically a home game for Texas as it is being played in the Palace in Dallas.
I’m still siding with the BuckNuts. The Longhorns’ defense is monstrously overvalued. They played a relatively soft schedule of opposing offenses — especially opposing passing attacks — and it looked that way during this CFP run.
When Texas played Clemson, Cade Klubnik threw for 340 yards. When Texas played Arizona State — a rush-heavy squad, mind you — Sam Leavitt threw for 222 yards. Keep in mind, the Sun Devils almost cracked 300 yards on the ground too.
Now imagine what is going to happen against a new-look Ohio State squad. Ryan Day tried playing “man-ball” all year by over-establishing the run. But the Buckeyes have finally realized they don’t have to do anything but toss the ball up to a uber talented receiving corps and let the explosive plays flow like water. It’s really that simple.
The “we figured our offense out finally” dropped over 40 on Tennessee and Oregon, two secondaries that rank nearly as high as Texas’. I can only imagine what Jeremiah Smith and Co. will do to the Longhorns.
Give me Ohio State and that receiving corps against an overrated Texas secondary.
I’m still siding with the BuckNuts. The Longhorns’ defense is monstrously overvalued. They played a relatively soft schedule of opposing offenses — especially opposing passing attacks — and it looked that way during this CFP run.
When Texas played Clemson, Cade Klubnik threw for 340 yards. When Texas played Arizona State — a rush-heavy squad, mind you — Sam Leavitt threw for 222 yards. Keep in mind, the Sun Devils almost cracked 300 yards on the ground too.
Now imagine what is going to happen against a new-look Ohio State squad. Ryan Day tried playing “man-ball” all year by over-establishing the run. But the Buckeyes have finally realized they don’t have to do anything but toss the ball up to a uber talented receiving corps and let the explosive plays flow like water. It’s really that simple.
The “we figured our offense out finally” dropped over 40 on Tennessee and Oregon, two secondaries that rank nearly as high as Texas’. I can only imagine what Jeremiah Smith and Co. will do to the Longhorns.
Give me Ohio State and that receiving corps against an overrated Texas secondary.
Matthew Golden has come into his own on deep routes Ohio State vs Texas Over 51.5 - The above doesn’t mean that the Texas offense will be stymied. Quinn Ewers should manage to move the ball. Ohio State plays a heavy amount of Cover 1, which Ewers has wrecked throughout the year.
Buckeyes safety Jordan Hancock is exploitable on the back end, and Texas WR Matthew Golden has really come into his own on deeper routes.
Ohio State’s defense has been superb in the CFP but keep in mind what happened in the Rose Bowl. Ohio State dominated the game and held a 34-8 lead at halftime. The game was firmly in hand, but the Ducks were able to secure some late scores to push the game past the total. (Exactly what would happen if I took the under here – fool me once)
These two teams are ranked in the top 15 in scoring this season, and while I believe Ohio State will do much of the damage, Texas can put together some drives that will make this game a high-scoring affair.
I’ll marry these up with these wagers
Buckeyes safety Jordan Hancock is exploitable on the back end, and Texas WR Matthew Golden has really come into his own on deeper routes.
Ohio State’s defense has been superb in the CFP but keep in mind what happened in the Rose Bowl. Ohio State dominated the game and held a 34-8 lead at halftime. The game was firmly in hand, but the Ducks were able to secure some late scores to push the game past the total. (Exactly what would happen if I took the under here – fool me once)
These two teams are ranked in the top 15 in scoring this season, and while I believe Ohio State will do much of the damage, Texas can put together some drives that will make this game a high-scoring affair.
I’ll marry these up with these wagers
But he is no Jeremiah Smith Ohio State -3.5 v Texas 1st Half
And some player props:
Quintrevion Wisner Under 60.5 rushing yards -108
Wisner has fallen short of this prop in five of the last nine games, including two of the last three.
Georgia’s rush defense is known. Arizona State’s was underappreciated. Ohio State's is better than either of them. Then factor in possible game states. The way Ohio State’s offense is clicking right now, Texas could feel quick pressure to keep up.
A few struggling rushes would force Steve Sarkisian to commit to the pass. At that point, Wisner’s rushing yards prop would be thoroughly doomed.
Player Prop: Jeremiah Smith 100+ Receiving Yards +100
In Ohio State's first two CFP games Smith has 13 receptions for 290 yards and four touchdowns in those games.
He has over 1,200 yards on the season to go along with 14 touchdown receptions.
Texas has one of the nation's best secondaries, led by Jim Thorpe Award Winner Jahdae Barron, who has five interceptions and 11 passes defensed this season.
However, if matched up one-on-one, I am going with Smith in that matchup, given his size and speed advantages over Barron.
Additionally, Ohio State offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has done a good job moving Smith around and scheming him touches. Smith is just as dangerous racking YAC yardage as he is making contested catches downfield.
And some player props:
Quintrevion Wisner Under 60.5 rushing yards -108
Wisner has fallen short of this prop in five of the last nine games, including two of the last three.
Georgia’s rush defense is known. Arizona State’s was underappreciated. Ohio State's is better than either of them. Then factor in possible game states. The way Ohio State’s offense is clicking right now, Texas could feel quick pressure to keep up.
A few struggling rushes would force Steve Sarkisian to commit to the pass. At that point, Wisner’s rushing yards prop would be thoroughly doomed.
Player Prop: Jeremiah Smith 100+ Receiving Yards +100
In Ohio State's first two CFP games Smith has 13 receptions for 290 yards and four touchdowns in those games.
He has over 1,200 yards on the season to go along with 14 touchdown receptions.
Texas has one of the nation's best secondaries, led by Jim Thorpe Award Winner Jahdae Barron, who has five interceptions and 11 passes defensed this season.
However, if matched up one-on-one, I am going with Smith in that matchup, given his size and speed advantages over Barron.
Additionally, Ohio State offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has done a good job moving Smith around and scheming him touches. Smith is just as dangerous racking YAC yardage as he is making contested catches downfield.
