Drew Allar has a tendency to take sacks Penn State vs Notre Dame Under 45.5 – The Semifinals kick off with a matchup of two of the best defenses in the land. Notre Dame allowed the 2nd fewest PPG while Penn State was 7th. These are two top-10 defenses by yards per play as well, with Notre Dame fifth and Penn State seventh.
The Irish run an uber-aggressive unit, blitzing at a very high rate of 36%, while playing man coverage on the back end. Penn State QB Drew Allar’s has struggled under pressure, completing less than half his passes in pressured pockets (47%). Allar's tendency to tuck the ball and take a sack has cost the Penn State offense numerous drives all season. Minnesota, Ohio State, SMU and Boise State all produced double-digit pressures, generating 11 sacks to just three throwaways from Allar.
Penn State can run the ball, but that will create more methodical drives than explosive drives, churning the clock and limiting possessions.
The Irish run an uber-aggressive unit, blitzing at a very high rate of 36%, while playing man coverage on the back end. Penn State QB Drew Allar’s has struggled under pressure, completing less than half his passes in pressured pockets (47%). Allar's tendency to tuck the ball and take a sack has cost the Penn State offense numerous drives all season. Minnesota, Ohio State, SMU and Boise State all produced double-digit pressures, generating 11 sacks to just three throwaways from Allar.
Penn State can run the ball, but that will create more methodical drives than explosive drives, churning the clock and limiting possessions.
Penn State rush defense is stellar I doubt if Notre Dame’s rush-heavy offense can find sustained success against Penn State’s elite front seven. You can’t run on Penn State, which ranks in the top 10 in every defensive rush metric imaginable. The Nittany Lions allowed just 3.1 yards per carry all year, and only two opposing backs to rush for more than 100 yards in a game.
The Irish aerial attack has been far below average this year mainly leaning on the explosive Riley Leonard-Jeremiyah Love-Jadarian Price rushing trio that ranks ninth in EPA per Rush. Love was injured in the Georgia game which could further limit the Notre Dame offense.
Keep in mind this Notre Dame team scored 14 of its 23 points in the span of a minute against Georgia thanks to a strip sack that caused a short field followed by a kick return touchdown. Penn State won’t make the same mistakes.
Meanwhile, I don’t trust Allar to beat Notre Dame’s blitz heavy defense. I’ll take the under as each team goes on seven-minute, 15-play drives that end up in FGs
The Irish aerial attack has been far below average this year mainly leaning on the explosive Riley Leonard-Jeremiyah Love-Jadarian Price rushing trio that ranks ninth in EPA per Rush. Love was injured in the Georgia game which could further limit the Notre Dame offense.
Keep in mind this Notre Dame team scored 14 of its 23 points in the span of a minute against Georgia thanks to a strip sack that caused a short field followed by a kick return touchdown. Penn State won’t make the same mistakes.
Meanwhile, I don’t trust Allar to beat Notre Dame’s blitz heavy defense. I’ll take the under as each team goes on seven-minute, 15-play drives that end up in FGs
Allar likes to target Singleton in the big games. I’ll match the investments with two team total bets
Notre Dame Under 21.5 +100 and
Penn State Under 21.5 -130
I’ll also hedge the unders with some player prop bets
Prop bet #1: Penn State RB Nick Singleton Over 27.5 receiving yards – When Allar is under pressure (and not taking sacks) he loves to dump the ball off to his RB Nick Singleton. Singelton caught 39 passes for 342 yards and five touchdowns on the season. Digging deeper, most of those catches happened in the biggest games.
Against USC, where Penn State needed a big comeback, Singelton caught four balls for 39 yards. Next week at Wisconsin, which was a one-point game midway through the fourth quarter, he had three for 37. The biggest game of the year was against Ohio State, and he went for six grabs and 54 yards. And in the Big Ten Championship, he had four and 43.
Penn State WR Harrison Wallace 45+ yards Receiving - Wallace is Penn State’s leading receiver after TE Tyler Warren and will be the go-to guy for Drew Allar on the outside in this game. I expect Notre Dame to blanket Warren giving more targets to Wallace. Wallace is a deep-ball threat, averaging over 15 yards per catch this season. Georgia had an incredibly inexperienced quarterback making his first career start in the quarterfinals against Notre Dame and he still managed to hit some deep shots down the field, including a 67-yard longest completion. A couple deep balls to Wallce should get the over.
Interesting Tidbit – The last time Notre Dame and Penn State played in 2007 was the first Penn State white out game.
Notre Dame Under 21.5 +100 and
Penn State Under 21.5 -130
I’ll also hedge the unders with some player prop bets
Prop bet #1: Penn State RB Nick Singleton Over 27.5 receiving yards – When Allar is under pressure (and not taking sacks) he loves to dump the ball off to his RB Nick Singleton. Singelton caught 39 passes for 342 yards and five touchdowns on the season. Digging deeper, most of those catches happened in the biggest games.
Against USC, where Penn State needed a big comeback, Singelton caught four balls for 39 yards. Next week at Wisconsin, which was a one-point game midway through the fourth quarter, he had three for 37. The biggest game of the year was against Ohio State, and he went for six grabs and 54 yards. And in the Big Ten Championship, he had four and 43.
Penn State WR Harrison Wallace 45+ yards Receiving - Wallace is Penn State’s leading receiver after TE Tyler Warren and will be the go-to guy for Drew Allar on the outside in this game. I expect Notre Dame to blanket Warren giving more targets to Wallace. Wallace is a deep-ball threat, averaging over 15 yards per catch this season. Georgia had an incredibly inexperienced quarterback making his first career start in the quarterfinals against Notre Dame and he still managed to hit some deep shots down the field, including a 67-yard longest completion. A couple deep balls to Wallce should get the over.
Interesting Tidbit – The last time Notre Dame and Penn State played in 2007 was the first Penn State white out game.
