
South Florida vs San Jose State over 65.0 – When HC Ken Niumatalolo joined SJSU from Navy, he didn't bring the triple option offense with him. Rather, he brought in new OC Craig Stutzmann and implemented the run and shoot. The system worked very well, but disaster has struck in that his best WR decided to opt out.
Nick Nash won the college receiver triple crown by leading the nation with 104 catches, 1,382 receiving yards and 16 touchdown receptions. He is San Jose State's first consensus first-team All-American and was a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award won by Colorado's Travis Hunter.
The passing attack shouldn’t fall off a cliff, however, without Nash, especially with Justin Lockhart (973 yards, five touchdowns) ready to cross the 1,000-yard mark. This is an advantageous matchup and SJSU should find the end zone.
USF excels in shutting down the run (21st in EPA per rush, 10th in rushing success rate) but struggles in coverage (106th in EPA per pass, 110th in passing explosiveness).
Nick Nash won the college receiver triple crown by leading the nation with 104 catches, 1,382 receiving yards and 16 touchdown receptions. He is San Jose State's first consensus first-team All-American and was a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award won by Colorado's Travis Hunter.
The passing attack shouldn’t fall off a cliff, however, without Nash, especially with Justin Lockhart (973 yards, five touchdowns) ready to cross the 1,000-yard mark. This is an advantageous matchup and SJSU should find the end zone.
USF excels in shutting down the run (21st in EPA per rush, 10th in rushing success rate) but struggles in coverage (106th in EPA per pass, 110th in passing explosiveness).

SJSU will be without both starting DBs DJ Harvey and Michael Dansby, Harvey’s 89.8 coverage grade (per PFF) is the second-highest of any player in the Mountain West, so it’ll be a big question mark in regards to how the Spartans hold up in coverage. SJSU doesn’t create much pressure on the passer (103rd in pass rush grade), so there should be some opportunities in the air for USF quarterback Bryce Archie.
Not only that, he Spartans defense finished dead last in Line Yards and Stuff Rate against one of the worst schedules in the country so the Bulls should find some opportunities on the ground too.
Both teams like to play fast — the Bulls lead the nation in plays per minute (2.86), while the other Spartans are ninth (2.54). With all of that tempo, there should be plenty of snaps to look forward to on Christmas Eve. More plays generally means more yardage and more points, so sign me up for an Over on the island.
Remember the 2025 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 15th at the Westgate SuperBook
Not only that, he Spartans defense finished dead last in Line Yards and Stuff Rate against one of the worst schedules in the country so the Bulls should find some opportunities on the ground too.
Both teams like to play fast — the Bulls lead the nation in plays per minute (2.86), while the other Spartans are ninth (2.54). With all of that tempo, there should be plenty of snaps to look forward to on Christmas Eve. More plays generally means more yardage and more points, so sign me up for an Over on the island.
Remember the 2025 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 15th at the Westgate SuperBook