Hey SMU, you ready for a little of this? There’s Rivalry Week and Championship week but now comes the best part of the season – Bowl Season! A chance, actually 46 chances including the playoffs to see college football games spread out so you can see them all.
And a chance to see matchups that the powerhouse programs would never schedule. How about Florida vs Tulane? Or Oklahoma vs Navy. Sure, the Sooners were a bit off but no one likes playing the service academies and their triple option.
Now, in years past, there would be plenty of surprise teams playing blue bloods but the best change of the year is the 12 team playoff. Now those teams have a shot at winning it all. Indiana, in years past would have been rewarded with a NY days bowl in Florida against an SEC team, grab some swag and go home. This year they will be playing at Notre Dame.
Another cool feature about the playoffs – in the 1st round the higher seed gets a home game. For years, the Big Ten has been begging for southern teams to come play a bowl in the north, with the wind blowing and snow falling. Well, now we get it. Tennessee has to come to the Shoe to play Ohio State. SMU gets to come to Happy Valley to play Penn State. White out could take on a whole new meaning.
It’s 45 more investment opportunities and 45 chances to hide from everyday life, grab some adult beverages and watch some entertaining football.
Of course, it also a chance at one of my favorite investment opportunities – confidence pools. Not only do you have to pick the winners, you have to grade your teams on a curve. 46 points for the slam dunk, absolutely, as sure as Bama to get revenge on scUM, all the way down to 1 point on what the heck upsets can happen.
That’s a lot of games to sort through and evaluate. But fear not, the Doofus is here to help.
First lets start by listing all the teams, dates, times and networks so you can get your football viewing schedule prepared.
And a chance to see matchups that the powerhouse programs would never schedule. How about Florida vs Tulane? Or Oklahoma vs Navy. Sure, the Sooners were a bit off but no one likes playing the service academies and their triple option.
Now, in years past, there would be plenty of surprise teams playing blue bloods but the best change of the year is the 12 team playoff. Now those teams have a shot at winning it all. Indiana, in years past would have been rewarded with a NY days bowl in Florida against an SEC team, grab some swag and go home. This year they will be playing at Notre Dame.
Another cool feature about the playoffs – in the 1st round the higher seed gets a home game. For years, the Big Ten has been begging for southern teams to come play a bowl in the north, with the wind blowing and snow falling. Well, now we get it. Tennessee has to come to the Shoe to play Ohio State. SMU gets to come to Happy Valley to play Penn State. White out could take on a whole new meaning.
It’s 45 more investment opportunities and 45 chances to hide from everyday life, grab some adult beverages and watch some entertaining football.
Of course, it also a chance at one of my favorite investment opportunities – confidence pools. Not only do you have to pick the winners, you have to grade your teams on a curve. 46 points for the slam dunk, absolutely, as sure as Bama to get revenge on scUM, all the way down to 1 point on what the heck upsets can happen.
That’s a lot of games to sort through and evaluate. But fear not, the Doofus is here to help.
First lets start by listing all the teams, dates, times and networks so you can get your football viewing schedule prepared.
Now there are several ways to rank the teams including it's record, Sagarin rating and FPI rating
There's some other factors to consider too. The Coaching Carousel has been going nuts with many teams going into bowl season with new head coaches on the horizon. Also some teams get to play in their home state giving a semblance of home field advantage.
And a factor that has become even more important and accelerating over the last few years, players either entering the portal or opting out to prepare for the draft. In fact this year, the portal hit Marshall so hard they dropped out. La Tech is the last minute replacement to face a pissed off Army squad.
All right, there's lots of data points. How do you pick you winners and how many points to put on them, If we were to rank the teams strictly based on the spread we get
There's some other factors to consider too. The Coaching Carousel has been going nuts with many teams going into bowl season with new head coaches on the horizon. Also some teams get to play in their home state giving a semblance of home field advantage.
And a factor that has become even more important and accelerating over the last few years, players either entering the portal or opting out to prepare for the draft. In fact this year, the portal hit Marshall so hard they dropped out. La Tech is the last minute replacement to face a pissed off Army squad.
All right, there's lots of data points. How do you pick you winners and how many points to put on them, If we were to rank the teams strictly based on the spread we get
The rankings highlight an added difficulty with the new expanded playoffs. Last year, you only had to pick to games and project the last game. This year you have to predict 4 games, then the next two and finally the championship game. It's starting to get into Triple Lindy territory. All the more fun! For this version of picks I left the minimum amount of picks in the playoffs. The teams in the later rounds were after looking at the relative Sagarin ratings. More on that in a bit.
Another valuable tool is ESPN’s Football Power Index or FPI. According to ESPN the FPI “the FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.
Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team's net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.”
Below is the allocation of points using strictly the FPI:
Another valuable tool is ESPN’s Football Power Index or FPI. According to ESPN the FPI “the FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.
Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team's net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.”
Below is the allocation of points using strictly the FPI:
Note - unlike the spread, you can project the playoff results using the relative FPI rankings which is incorporated above
Closely related is the Sagarin rating. It’s a numerical ranking system which takes into account a team's wins and losses, as well as the strength of their opponent. The system also factors in the margin of victory in each game, whether the game was played at home or away. Using the Sagarin rating the allocation of points would be:
Closely related is the Sagarin rating. It’s a numerical ranking system which takes into account a team's wins and losses, as well as the strength of their opponent. The system also factors in the margin of victory in each game, whether the game was played at home or away. Using the Sagarin rating the allocation of points would be:
Finally here's a look at a blended Sagarin, FPI and Spread
I'm going to use the above to help my picks but I think it overrates Notre Dame a bit. At the beginning of the year the Big Guy wanted my best guess at the Playoffs. In it, I had Oregon winning it all so I'll stick with that. Here are my 2024 Confidence Bowl Picks with that in mind, taking a llook at the data, tending to put more points towards the back end (so I always seem to have a chance) and factoring in some upsets
Remember the 2025 Go Jumbo is Nov 15th at the Westgate SuperBook
