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2025 NFL Draft Recap

4/29/2025

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​The 2025 draft is in the books. It was a relatively underwhelming class so doing well in this draft is akin to getting a participation trophy. Teams had to play, so they ate their vegetables and made the following picks
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1. Cam Ward QB - Miami (FL)

He’s the best QB in the draft but would have been QB5 last year. He’s confident and experienced with mobility and a strong arm. Think Jayden Daniels Lite. The Titans have needed a franchise quarterback for a long time, and it seems as though they’ve finally found one. He’s just not elite. He will be constantly dogged by – should they have waited until next year and taken Travis Hunter. 
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2. Travis Hunter WR/CB - Colorado
And the fireworks start! Jacksonville gave up a 2nd and 4th round pick this year plus a 1st round next year to move up five spots and take Hunter. A risky move, especially for a non quarterback. But he is the best player in the draft and a unique talent.   There’s never been a player like Hunter who can be elite at two positions. He has has a legit chance to be a big-impact player at two positions.
 
Hunter gives Trevor Lawrence another big-time playmaking option. There’s nothing more important for the Jags than helping Lawrence reach his immense potential. And Hunter can play on defense too—helping bolster a major position of need at corner. The Jags paid a steep price for Hunter but it will likely payoff. 
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3. Abdul Carter DE - Penn State
If Hunter is the best player in the draft, Carter is a close second. Even with needs all over the roster, you don’t pass on an elite pass rusher.
You can never have too many talented pass rushers, especially in a division with Jalen Hurts and Jayden Daniels  Lining him up with Brian Burns, Dexter Lawrence, and Kayvon Thibodeaux will let the Giants field one of the best defensive fronts in the league. When the Giants won Super Bowls, they rushed the passer. The G-Men return to their old identity. 
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4. Will Campbell OT/G - LSU 
The Patriots made this offseason about building around QB Drake Maye after a fantastic rookie season. In free agency, New England added WR Stefon Diggs, center Garrett Bradbury and RT Morgan Moses. Campbell completes the Patriots’ front five by taking over Maye’s blind side.
​
Campbell has elite tape and athleticism. In fact, prior to the 2025 NFL Draft Scouting Combine, only two offensive linemen recorded his level of athleticism: Trent Williams and Tristan Wirfs. Their has been much discussion about his  lack of arm length and that the team may end up moving him to the inside. Plenty of offensive linemen with short arms have thrived over the years. He’ll be a fixture in Beantown for many years. 
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5. Mason Graham DT - Michigan
The Browns were able to extract a second round this year and a 1st round next year from the Jags and only moved back three picks. But here is where the weakness of the draft starts to arise. Cleveland desperately needs a QB but wisely passed on one here. So they took a good but not great DT. 

Graham is powerful but undersized. Graham had only nine sacks across three seasons, lacks elite length with 32-inch arms Still, It’s hard to find defensive tackles with pass rush potential and he’s has that. Lining up next to Myles Garrett will give him opportunities to get to the QB
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6. Ashton Jeanty RB - Boise State
No doubt, Ashton Jeanty is a great running back prospect, but he’s not on an elite level like Saquon Barkley or Christian McCaffrey. Jeanty boasts elite contact balance and lower body strength. He combines speed with his compact 5' 8½" and 211-pound frame. The Raiders and Pete Carroll want to run the football, so they took the best back in the draft. Taking him as a Top 10 pick is a bit of a stretch though
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7. Armand Membou - OT Missouri
Think Will Campbell but with size. Membou allowed zero sacks and quarterback hits this past season.

With LT Olu Fashanu coming off a stellar rookie season at left tackle, Armand can stay at his natural position at RT.  The Jets have their bookend tackles for the next 3-4 years and one of the best young OLs in the league. .
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8. Tetairoa McMillan WR -  Arizona
I know the Panthers want to give Bryce Young some weapons but they are in bigger need on defense, the worst in the league. McMillan isn't even the best WR prospect left. That would be  Matthew Golden. McMillan is talented but has concerns about work ethic. Not something you want to hear about your Top 10 pick. He'll be more of a complementary threat than a true No. 1. ​
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9. Kelvin Banks OT/G - Texas
​Ryan Ramczyk retired, so the Saints desperately needed to find a blind-side protector. Enter Banks, a unanimous All-American and the reigning Outland Trophy winner as the nations best interior lineman. Tallies Fuaga was drafted as the blind side protector last year, but he’ll move to right tackle, which is his more natural spot. Banks will help protect the injury prone Derek Carr this year and whomever the Saints have at QB the following year. 
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10. Colston Loveland TE - Michigan
Did the Bears even know that Tyler Warren was available? Why would they draft the second-best player at the position when the best one was there for the taking? 

​
Loveland showed the ability to get separation, important in today’s pass happy offenses.  Loveland wasn’t much of a tackle breaker in college, which could limit his run-after-the-catch upside. And he lacks elite rush blocking strength. Ben Johnson may be thinking he’s getting another LaPorta but not quite. 
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11. Mykel Williams - DE Georgia
Williams  isn’t the most explosive pass rusher, but he’s solid in run defense and complements Nick Bosa's aggressive style of play. He and Bosa could form a dynamic edge-rusher duo one day, but Williams isn’t quite there yet. He was hobbled by an ankle injury in 2024 but is one of the youngest players in the draft and is incredibly athletic. 

A good pick from a needs perspective, but it would have made more sense if the 49ers didn’t have Jalon Walker or Tyler Warren available.
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12. Tyler Booker G - Alabama
He's not future Hall of Famer Zack Martin who retied this offseason, biut he is a great road-grader and a player who starts for a decade. Tyler Smith and Booker should be one of the best, young guard duos in the league. 

Booker is a high-character player, but he was one of the worst-testing players at the combine. His agility was very low, so he could be a liability on pass protect.  

It looks like Dallas is going to go back to power football and looking to be blowing defensive lines off the ball with a heavy run game and play action shots off of it. The Cowboys are best when they play this style of game. 
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13. Kenneth Grant DT - Michigan
The Dolphins were simply awful in run defense last year allowing  4.4 yards per carry, up  over a half yard from 2023. They needed a stud u the middle to plug things up. Grant won’t always fill up the box score with his play, but he’s a 330-plus-pound nose tackle who can devour blockers with his size and strength, but has light feet and plenty of quickness to do more than just push the pocket or lean into the block.

Grant has the potential to be a wall in the middle of their defense and provides some toughness along the Dolphins' interior. 
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14. Tyler Warren TE - Penn State
Tyler Warren to the Colts was pretty obvious as soon as Colston Loveland was taken by the Bears. A modern-day ‘Slash” for the Penn State, Warren lined up all across the formation, even as a quarterback on designed read plays. His best role is probably as a big slot player. 

He’ll need to improve as an in-line blocker, but the athleticism and skill set should help him make an impact early, 

This is a steal, and it fills a big need.
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15. Jalon Walker DE - Georgia
For the first time ever, the Falcons have taken a Georgia player in the first round!  Never in a million years did they imagine that Jalon Walker was available. This is incredible value and fills a need. Atlanta hasn’t had a pass-rusher register at least 10 sacks since 2016  

Walker is havoc personified. He is a strong tackler and good athlete who is consistently diagnosing plays quickly. He can run, chase and has no issues taking on and shedding climbing offensive linemen, and has the athleticism to be a plus-player in coverage. 

Walker can start right away and do a multitude of things for a defense that needs help everywhere - especially in the pass rush.
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16. Walter Nolen DT - Mississippi
Nolen is one of the most talented players in this class. He has insane upside, but there are some questions about his work ethic. He flashed his potential during his two seasons with the Texas A&M Aggies, but he didn't emerge as a full-blown force until last season at Ole Miss. The defensive tackle registered a career-high 14 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks.

More importantly, Nolen looked the part as a future game-wrecker. His quickness and lateral legibility make him a top-shelf run-stuffer, and he's able to win as a pass-rusher when working up and down the line of scrimmage.

This would have been a risky pick if inside the top 10 with so many other great prospects available, but Nolen was the best player left on the board.
 
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17. Shermar Stewart DE - Texas A&M
Stewart is this years workout wonder. He tested incredibly well at the NFL combine but wasn't at all productive at Texas A&M. He had just 4.5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss in his entire college career. 

The Bengals really wanted to trade down, but couldn’t find a buyer. So, they made the same mistake they made in 2023 when the drafted Myles Murphy. He was also a high-upside player with no production, and a bust. The Bungles just drafted his clone, 
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18, Grey Zabel G - North Dakota State
Seattle was gifted Zabel by Cincinnati bungling the raft. Zabel has good film, was incredible in the Senior Bowl and blew up the combine.  Zabel played tackle at North Dakota State but projects as a guard or center in the NFL Seattle has been rebuilding its offensive line in recent years and he could go a long way to replicating the line the Seahawks had in the early 2010s when they were perennial contenders.  
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19, Emeka Egbuka WR - Ohio State
With so many other needs (the defense is atrocious), this pick was a bit of a puzzler, The Buccaneers not only have Mike Evans, they re-signed Chris Godwin and drafted Jalen McMillan last year. Do the really need another WR? 

Egbuka is good, really good. He got overshadowed last year by the freshman Jeremiah Smith's amazing year but he still managed to have 
two 1,000-yard seasons.  He is the best route-runner in this year's class. and the  most pro-ready receiver in this year's class. Great player picked by the wrong team. 
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20. Jahdae Barron CB - Texas
​With players like offensive stars like Ashton Jeanty, Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren off the board, the Broncos added to their secondary with Texas CB Jahdae Barron. He's the first corner taken in the draft and can line up anywhere on the field. Barron may be primarily a slot defender and will allow star CB Patrick Surtain to shut down one side of the field.

This pick will give Kansas City some nightmares as the Broncos now have a crazy trio of cornerbacks. Pat Surtain, Riley Moss and Jahdae Barron could be the best cornerback room in the league and will create a true “no-fly” zone for opposing quarterbacks. 
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21. Derrick Harmon DT - Oregon
Classic Steelers pick. Harmon isn’t a flashy player, but he’s a steady defensive player who can impact the pass  Harmon fits right in as an eventual Cam Heyward replacement. He’ll now get the opportunity to learn from the four-time first-team All-Pro and will form a strong duo with Keeanu Benton on the interior for the long term.
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22. Omarion Hampton RB - North Carolina
Jim Harbaugh wants to run the ball, so it should come as no surprise that he drafted a running back. The Chargers did sign RB Najee Harris in free agency, but Hampton is far more explosive than him. Don't be surprised if Hampton gets the majority of carries in 2025. Omarion Hampton is a talented back but taking a non elite RB in the first round is a mistake.

The Bolts don’t have the offensive line to be a power running team and  there is some concern about the wear and tear Hampton undertook this season. 


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23. Matthew Golden WR - Texas
Golden is the first wide receiver taken in the first round by the Packers since 2002. The Packers have a ton of receiving depth but are still looking for a star. The Texas WR adds a speed element to the Packers' receiving corps after Christian Watson's ACL injury late in the 2024 season could sideline him for all of 2025. .Golden brings not only speed but also elite ball tracking skills. 
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24. Donovan Jackson G - Ohio State
Minnesota has gone all out to improve their offensive line. After adding C Ryan Kelly and G Will Fries from the Colts in free agency, the Vikings add another interior lineman in Donovan Jackson.

Jackson is a guard by trade and a real good one. But his senior performance at Ohio State exemplified the importance of positional versatility. The first-team All-Big Ten selection started 31 straight games before bumping out to left tackle after Josh Simmons suffered a season-ending torn patellar tendon. Jackson didn't miss a beat, to the point where some started to wonder if he could be an NFL left tackle. He'll likely move back to guard in the NFL and can be a high-level starter on the inside. Minnesota’s offensive line overhaul is now complete.  
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25. Jaxson Dart QB - Mississippi
A huge whiff by the G-Men, They traded their 2nd round pick and 2 3rd round picks to the for a QB that long way to go before he’s ready for big-time NFL action. He does have a good arm and his running ability will give defenses fits but he is not a first-round prospect. The Giants shouldn’t have traded up for him but rather be more patient. Dart could have easily fallen to them in round 2.
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26. James Pearce DE - Tennessee
The Falcons weren't content with adding just Jalon Walker in round 1, then then traded their second-round pick and a first-round pick in 2026 to go get Tennessee edge rusher James Pearce Jr.
 
Pearce was an all-SEC defender in 2024 and may be the best speed rusher in the draft class but trading a first-round pick for him is patently absurd. No doubt he is a quality pass rusher, but giving up this much for him just makes absolutely no sense.

I guess the Falcons must believe they can win now with Michael Penix Jr. under center and it’s time to take full advantage of all the talent they feature on offense. Atlanta is in win-now mode, given how bad the NFC South is.
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27. Malaki Starks S - Georgia
The Baltimore Ravens standing pat and landing an elite talent is completely on brand. This is such a perfectly Ravens pick. a falling player who was highly sought after all season up until the draft.

Starks might have been the best defensive player remaining. So of course he went to the Ravens. He and Kyle Hamilton are an incredibly versatile safety duo that can lock down the slot and the deep middle of the field and will keep the Ravens playing elite defense for the near future.

The two-time first-team All-American is an elite talent and playmaker along the back end. Three years of high-end performance in the nation's toughest conference, including starting as a true freshman, shows he's more than deserving of being a first round pick.    
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28. Tyleik Williams DT - Ohio State
The Detroit Lions have a type. Ohio State’s Tyleik Williams fits the mold.
Williams can start his career working behind DJ Reader before taking over in the near future. Reader is turning 31 in July and is entering the final year of his contract.

Williams consistently ate up blocks, reset the line of scrimmage in the run game and provided some interior pass-rush presence. The consensus All-American has the flexibility to play 3-technique, as he proved at Ohio State. Detroit may have Alim McNeill in place but he  can contribute as part of the Lions' defensive line rotation and provide quality depth along the interior. It's nice to have a talented roster like the Lions. 
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29. Josh Conerly Jr. DT - Oregon
After Daniels took the league by storm in 2024, making the offensive line a strength was the next priority in D.C. SO the Skins traded for Laremy Tunsil to play left tackle, and then added a right tackle in Oregon's Josh Conerly.

The first-team All-Big Ten selection should immediately compete with Andrew Wylie on the right side for Washington and eventually take over as the long-term option. Conerly is as solid as they come at left tackle, winning with balance and agility on the edge. He can block in zone systems or provide the power to move his man on run plays.
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30. Maxwell Hairston CB - Kentucky
Buffalo needed to get better at cornerback ahead of 2025 so they added former first-round pick Tre'Davious White in the offseason and then ​traded picks #32 and #164 to swap picks with the Chiefs and drafted Hairston.  

Hairston could and should start right away. He was the fastest player at the NFL combine and a stellar CB prospect. He has  the ability to cover anyone in the league. 

The ding on him is that as a tackler, far too often Hairston ends up grasping for air as the runner comes at him. He definitely isn't a fan of getting physical. 
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31. Jihaad Campbell LB - Alabama
Another draft and another top SEC defender falls into the Eagle's lap. Jihaad Campbell was considered the best linebacker in the draft, so of course he's going to Philly. , 

Campbell can do myriad things for the Eagles defense right away and can be used as a situational pass rusher. He can play both linebacker and edge, much like Haason Reddick.

He's great value at No. 31, especially at the cost of a fifth-round pick for moving up just one spot. Campbell could have easily gone in the teens.  
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32. Josh Simmons OT - Ohio State
After watching the Super Bowl it was obvious that the Chiefs needed to help on the OL. They have lost two Super Bowls because their offensive line couldn’t protect Mahomes. 

They started by bringing in Jaylon Moore this offseason, but he’s never been a full-time starter in the NFL. So they took a risk and drafted Simmons. Simmons tore his patella tendon, an injury that has ended many NFL careers. Before the injury he was considered a top-10 lock. ​. If Simmons can get back to full strength, he should legitimately be one of the best tackles in the NFL

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2025 NFL Draft predictions

4/23/2025

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PictureThe 2025 draft intrigue starts at 5 with Jacksonville. Do they take Jeanty? or a DL?
The NFL Draft comes to Title Town. And I can’t make it.  A chance to get two items off my bucket list, a trip to Lambeau and go to the draft. And once again, I'll be working and watching from a local watering hole. Maybe next year.....

But I will have fun downing some adult beverages and seeing if my predictions pay off. 
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This is one of the weakest NFL Drafts in the last 10 years, and the data we are receiving backs that up. You have just one blue-chip player, Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter; a clear No. 1 quarterback (Miami’s Cam Ward) then  a big gap to No. 2.

The rest of the first round candidates are all at non-premium positions like tight end, running back and interior defensive line. The best offensive linemen all have major question marks, and the top wide receiver this year would be WR5 in last year’s draft.

PictureThe consensus is that Cam Ward will be the overall #1 pick in 2025
Further evidence of the weakness of the draft - every team owns its first-round pick. There hasn't been one trade. No one wants to give up future draft capital or later-round picks to take underwhelming talent. That doesn't mean that money can't be made. There will ultimately be 32 first round draft picks. Guessing them correctly can be very profitable. 

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After doing my home work, I did the following investments:

Not much profit in the first four picks though - they are pretty much locked in:

1
. Tennessee - Cam Ward QB Miami (FL) at -20000
2.  Cleveland - Travis Hunter CB/WR (likely as CB) Colorado -800
3. NY Giants -  Abdul Carter OLB Penn State -600 and
4. New England - Will Campbell OT LSU -380.

The fun begins at 5 with Jacksonville. The prognosticators and Vegas think it will be Ashton Jeanty RB from Boise State but at just +125.

That means there are doubts. Do you really take an RB that high? Or, with Trevor Lawrence struggling, will Jeanty give him a weapon to get him into positions where he doesn’t need to put everything on his shoulders. I’m going to pass here. The payoff is intriguing but not quite enough. New Orleans could go with a DL (they need just about everything) or trade back.

PictureMy first pick is Armand Membou from Missouri to Las Vegas at 6
For my first position pick I’ll go with Armand Membou OT Missouri at 6 to Las Vegas. New GM John Spytek likes to rebuild from the trenches. He returns +210 if selected under 6.5. 

My other player picks are:
Jahdae Barron CB Texas over 18.5 +130 - He may go to Arizona at 16 but I think he falls to Minnesota at 24

Malakai Starks S Georgia under 23.5 +155 - I have him to Miami at 13 but have seen him as far down as 30 to Buffalo
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Matthew Golden WR Texas over 17.5   +130 - He seems to be a lock at 23 to Green Bay

For position picks by team I have:

Pick  Position                                    Odds
9       New Orleans take DL first         +115 - Likely Mykel Williams DE Georgia
10     Chicago to draft TE first            +250 - Either Colston Loveland TE Michigan or Tyler Warren TE Penn State
11     San Francisco to draft OL first  +180 - Niners may go DL here but I think they will take Kelvin Banks OT/G Texas
13     Miami to draft Safety first          +600 - Doubling down on Starks here. Nice payoff
14     Indianapolis to draft TE first      +100 - They take the TE that Chicago doesn't
16     Arizona to draft CB first             +300 - Either Jahdae Barron CB Texas or Will Johnson CB Michigan
17     Cincinnati to draft Safety first    +600 - Bengals may go with a Edge rusher here but I think it will be Nick Emmanwori S South Carolina 
19     Tampa Bay to draft LB first       +190 - If they Cards don't take a WR I think they will go with Jahaad Campbell LB Alabama 
21     Pittsburgh to draft DL first        +140 - Some are saying Shedeur Sanders QB Colorado here but I don't think so. Thinking Derrick Harmon DT Oregon 
22     LA Chargers to draft DE first     +125 - Likely Kenneth Grant DT Michigan
23     Green Bay to draft WR first       +300 - Counting on Matthew Grant WR Texas
24      Minnesota to draft CB first        +200 - RB maybe but more likely whichever CB Arizona doesn't take between Barron and Johnson
26      LA Rams to draft CB first          +225 - Maxwell Hairston CB Kentucky is the next best after Johnson and Barron
28      Detroit to draft OL first              +270 - The CBs are gone by now so Lions take Tyler Booker G Alabama and move Glasgow to C/G backup
29      Washington to draft WR first    +500 - Most have Washington to go with DL but I'll take a flyer on Emeka Egbuka WR Ohio State
30      Buffalo to draft CB first             +200 - Maybe Malkai Starks S Georgia but I'm going with Trey Amos CB Mississippi​

PictureI'm going with Chicago to take Tyler Warren over Colston Loveland
I’ll go with some prop bets too.

Will Trey Amos CB Mississippi go in the first round? yes at +130. Doubling down with him to Buffalo at 30

Who will draft Tyler Warren TE Penn State? I’ll take him to Chicago at +290 ahead of Loveland from Michigan

Who will be drafted first Emeka Egbuka WR Ohio State or Donovan Ezeirauka OLB Boston College? I’ll take Egbuka at +105 going at 29 ahead of Ezeiruka at 32 to Philadelphia
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Who will be drafted first Josh Simmons OT Ohio State or Walter Nolen DT Mississippi? I’ll take Simmons at +190 in the 1st round, Nolen in round 2 ​

PictureEmeka Egbuka is a safe pick at WR and stays in the 1st round
And finally some overall first round wagers. Total QBs taken in the first round – I’ll go under 2.5 at +105. Counting on Sanders and Dart staying out of the 1st round

And total Big Ten players in the first round – I’ll go over 9.5 at +120. I count 4 from Michigan, 2 each from Penn State, Oregon and Ohio State and 1 from UCLA for a total of 11. Room to spare. 

I'm taking some real flyers here. If only a few pay off it will be a profitable night. Then again, disaster could strike with a few trades and teams falling in love with certain players. It's what makes the draft so much fun!

And all these investments are made on who I think teams will take not necessarily who they should take. That will part of the next Big Book of Guesses update. 
​

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2025 Masters - How to make your pool picks

4/9/2025

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Now that March Madness is done – it’s tie for the Masters. The azaleas are in bloom, the golf course is set to perfection. The worlds best golfers vie for the most coveted title in the sport, the Green Jacket.

That’s all fine. What you really care about is how to make money on the tournament. A favorite way for me is to enter a pool. Now I like pools with tiers, similar to the NASCAR pool I’m in. You pick one golfer from Tier 1, one from Tier 2 and 6 from the remaining entrants. The score is based on the total winnings by your combined golfers.

Similar to the annual how to pick your March Madness bracket - here are some tips for picking your Master Pool. The goal is to win. Coming in 5th is the same as coming in last.

​You got to be different from the crowd, you need to zig when everyone else is zagging.- your score only matters relative to everyone else's. If 50% of entries select the favorite, Scottie Scheffler, and he plays well, then everyone rises together. You haven't gained much of an edge. But what happens when you select a different golfer with similar winning potential who's only in 10% of lineups? If that golfer outperforms Scheffler, you've just jumped ahead of 50% of your pool with a single selection. That's leverage—the real key to winning Masters pools.

PictureYour defending Champ and 2025 favorite - Scottie Scheffler
Depending on your scoring system and pool size (more on that shortly), fading one of the top golfers like Scottie Scheffler might be unnecessarily risky. Instead, some of the best leverage opportunities can show up in the lower tiers, where selections are wider and the drop-off in win probability is smaller. By waiting until the bottom tiers to make your contrarian plays, you can still separate from the field without taking on too much risk. It's all about picking your spots to take your chance depending on the structure of your specific pool.

Which brings in the final factor – the size of the pool. In smaller pools (up to 30), you don’t have to make as many risky picks.

Medium size pools (30-100) You will need a bit more strategic differentiation. Look at tiers 2-3 to make your zigs.

PictureJack was the first player to win back to back Masters titles in 1966
​Large Pools (100+) No sense going with the conventional. Your going to have to grip it an rip it if you want to have a chance. Go unconventional and hope they land on the green. Next consider where to make your contrarian pick. You don’t have to make your your boldest move in Tier 1—in fact, it often doesn’t make sense to do so. 

I’m in a smaller pool this year so I’ll go with leveraging my bottom tier picks.
 
Here are some interesting facts to consider for the your 2025 Masters picks 

Scottie Scheffler is the favorite to win the Masters at entering the tournament at 5-1 odds and the only player listed under 10-1. Favorites have only won the tournament 6 times in the last 32 years: 2024 - Scottie Scheffler; 2005 - Tiger Woods; 2002- Tiger Woods; 2001- Tiger Woods; 1997- Tiger Woods; 1992- Fred Couples. Four of the six times it was Tiger

Scheffler won The Masters last year, Tiger Woods is the last golfer to win The Masters in consecutive years, doing so in 2001 and 2002. In fact back to back wins have only happened three times - Jack Nicklaus – 1965 & 1966 Nick Faldo – 1989 & 1990 and Tiger Woods – 2001 & 2002

​Second in odds at +650 is McIlroy, The last piece to McIlroy's trophy case is the Masters to complete the career grand slam. Only six players have a career Grand Slam: Nicklaus, Woods, Hogan, Player, Gene Sarazen, Bobby Jones.

​Rory is playing his 17th Masters this week. Only one player has won their first Masters title in their 17th start or later – Sergio Garcia, who did it in his 19th start at 30-1 odds in 2017.

PictureSorry Rory - No player has completed the Grand Slam at the Masters
Rory has 7 Top 10 finishes without a win. Only 4 players in Masters history have more Tom Kite – 12; Lloyd Mangrum – 12; Greg Norman – 9; Gene Littler,

And no players has completed the Grand Slam at the Masters – Sorry Rory

Only four players have won the green jacket with 100-1 odds or higher and it all happened in a 5-year span between 2007 and 2011. 2008- Trevor Immelman, 150-1; 2009 - Angel Cabrera, 125-1 2007 - Zach Johnson, 125-1;  2011- Charl Schwartzel, 100-1

The Official World Golf Rankings have been a decent indicator of Masters success and wearing the green jacket. Every Masters winner since 2010- the last 15 has been T-30 in OWGR entering the week.

Since the winner is likely to come from the Top 35 OWGR – here’s the list and the odds:

​
2024 was a glorious year for Bryson DeChambeau at majors. He finished top-6 in three of the four majors including the Masters after finishing top-6 in just 4 of his career 29 major starts before 2024.
​

Go with the flow -  Top 10 Finish Streaks at Masters Last 5 Years - Scottie Scheffler (3), Collin Morikawa (3), Will Zalatoris (3, incl. DNP), Cam Young (2), Xander Schauffele (2)

Top-20 streaks: Scottie Scheffler (5), Collin Morikawa (4), Patrick Reed (2), Xander Schauffele (2), Cam Young (2)

Since Tiger Woods won the Masters in 1997, every winner since, including Woods himself had at least a top-20 finish at a major before winning at Augusta.

Making the cut at the Masters is an accomplishment all in itself. Doing it 15 straight times is on another level. The active leader for consecutive cuts made at Augusta belongs to Adam Scott, who has made the cut in 15 straight Masters between 2010 and 2024. If Scott makes the cut this year, he would move into a tie for the 8th-longest streak of cuts made at Augusta, tying Phil Mickelson on the list.​
​
Factoring it all in here are my picks for the 2025 Masters Pool:

Tier 1
Rory McIlroy
Jon Rahm
Scottie Scheffler

 
I’ll play it safe and go with Scottie

Tier 2
Bryson DeChambeau
Collin Morikawa
Xander Schauffele

​
Collin Morikawa - McIlroy is playing great golf. He hasn’t finished lower than T17 in a tournament this season. Which is why he is in tier 1. The exact thing can be said for Morikawa, who leads the PGA Tour in true strokes gained (2.93)
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PictureFear the Stache! I'll put Keegan Bradley on my team
​The rest of the pack: Where I will try to differentiate
 
Russell Henley - Henley has finished in the top 10 in the past two major championships and was T4 in the 2023 Masters.

​Maverick McNealy – Call the ball Maverick. McNealy has four top-10 finishes this season, including a T3 in last week’s Valero Texas Open.
 
Keegan Bradley – Fear the Stache.  Bradley has been very good with his approach shots this year. He’s finished outside the top 20 in only two starts this year
 
Min Woo Lee - His putting has been terrific with .96 true strokes gained, the second most of any player on the PGA Tour
 
Tommy Fleetwood -  is coming off a T3 in last year’s Masters, He finished 62 last week but otherwise has been in the Top 25 in every other tournament this year.
 
Sepp Straka – Sepp is 2nd in this year’s FedExCup standings after a win at The American Express and top 10s in two Signature Events (T7, AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am; T5, Arnold Palmer Invitational). 

​I'll take a side bet on Adam Scott to make the cut too


Remember the 2025 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 15th at the Westgate SuperBook


 



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2025 March Madness - It's Izzo Time!

3/18/2025

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PictureJust relax folks - Izzo's got this
Are you ready for the best three weeks of sports. The bowl season is a blast with just about as many games. But except for (now 12 teams) no one else has a shot at the championship. One and done in bowls just means you play one game and go home – win or lose.

That’s nothing like March Madness. 68 teams have at least a theoretic shot at winning it all. Win, and you’re still playing!

And the best part of March Madness is getting to pick your brackets. After a whole year of casually watching basketball, all of a sudden you get to be an expert with a chance to win some money from your co-workers to boot. No longer are you limited to rooting for your alma mater or against your hated rival. You have 66 other teams you can root for (or against)

And just like the annual rules for picking the Bowl Games here are some tips to stay in contention longer in your pools 

​1. Always pick MSU to win it all. Well, that’s more of a house rule. I always do since I don’t want to be in a position where State does win it all and I sheepishly picked someone else

PictureBest put Duke in your Final Four according to the KenPom ratings
2. Pick your Final Four first and work backwards. Starting in the opening rounds and working forward inevitably leads to leaving you with some unintentional Cinderella heading to San Antonio. When picking your eventual National Champion, keep an eye on the KenPom rankings, KenPom rankings assess teams based on their offensive and defensive efficiency.  Since the model was posted in 2002, 20 of the 22 national champions were ranked in the Top 20 for adjusted offensive and defensive metrics.

​This year’s teams are Auburn (2 Offense 12 Defense), Duke (3 Off 4 Def), Florida (1 Off 10 def), Tennessee (18 Off 3 Def) Iowa State (20 Off 9 Def) and Houston (10 Off 2 Def). Michigan State just misses (5 Def but 27 Off). Also, just missing Maryland (28 Off 6 Def) and Wisconsin (13 Off 27 Def)

3. Advance all the No. 1 seeds in the first round. Yeah, in 2018, UVA, not only a #1 seed but the overall #1 seeded team overall went down in the first round.  In 2023, #1 seed Purdue, also said goodbye in the first round. Can it happen again? Maybe, but the top seeds are 154-2 (98.7%) since seeding started. I’ll keep on picking them.

4. 2 seeds are a bit harder to predict. Last year, the #2 seeds went 4-0 in the first round and 4-0 in the second round. But, in 2023 the number 2 seeds went 3-1 in the first round and 2-1 in the next round (State upsetting 2 seed Marquette!). Same thing happened in 2022 and 2021, 3-1 first round, 2-1 second round. Perhaps the trend will return. Consider taking a 2 seed to lose this round and another in the second round.  

PictureSorry Michigan - no 5 seed has ever won it all
5. There’s been a lot of talk about taking 14 seeds over 3 seeds. Last year # 14 seed Oakland took down Kentucky. But, in the two previous years, the 3 seeds went 4-0 in the first round. Overall, #14 seeds are 23-133 (7%) in the first round. Kind of a long shot but fun when it happens. I’ll never forget when, in 2014 Doofus Daughter number 3 watched her Mercer Bears take down Dook. Have fun. Consider putting a 14-3 upset to add a little spice in your bracket.

6. It’s been trendy to take the 12 seeds to upset the 5 seeds. In 2013 and 2014, 3 of the 4 number 12 seeds won. In 2015 that trend took a pause as all four 5 seeds advanced. In 2016, the trend picked up again as two 5 seeds fell in the first round (Purdue and Baylor). In 2018 one #12 seed won (Middle Tenn State against a team we all know and love). In 2019 the #12 seeds went 3-1 against the 5s. Last year the 12’s went 2-2 against the 5s. In fact, 12 seeds win at a better than one third of the time (35%). A winning bracket is going to get a 12-5 upset correct. Go for it.
 
While you are at it, keep in mind no #5 seed has won it all (Michigan, Memphis, Oregon and Clemson this year)

PictureBounce Kansas early
7. This is where I usually say don’t bet on Kansas. Since 2011 the have been either a 1 or 2 seed every year other than 2019, 2021 and 2024. But until 2022 when they won it all, they made it to the Final Four once (2012). In 2014 and 2015 they were 2 seeds and didn’t make it to the Sweet Sixteen. In 2016, they were a one seed and lost in the Elite Eight. Same thing happened in 2018. In 2019, they won one game and then got launched by a #5 seed. In 2021, they got bounced in the second round by 6 seed USC.

​That said, in 2022 they won it all but reverted to form in 2023 as they didn’t make to the Sweet 16 as a 1 seed. Last year they were a four seed and got bounced in the 2nd round. This year, not much is expected from Kansas as they are a 7 seed. Bounce the Rock Chalk ChokeHawks

 
8. Drop some No. 1s or a No. 2s in the round of 32. In the last ten Tournaments, 26 of the 84 No. 1 or No. 2 seeds lost before the Sweet 16. The teams in seeds 7-10 are talented but streaky, capable of knocking off a top seed on a two day turnaround. Not always though. Last year, of the eight 1 and 2 seeds, all won their first two games.
 
9. Just don’t fall too in love with upsets. Everyone remembers the St Peters, Mercers, Butlers, VCUs, George Mason and Florida Gulf Coasts of the tourney. Last year it was 11 seed NC State making it to the Final Four that grabbed everyone’s attention. But it’s because they are so rare that they are so memorable. The truth is that it’s highly unlikely that a low seed will make the Final Four. Of the last 104 Final Four teams, 81 were top-four seeds. That still leaves room for one or two non top four seeds.

PictureAdvance at least 1 First Four Team - last year it was Colorado
10. That said don’t go all favorites in the Final Four. A Final Four of all 1 seeds has happened only once since they began seeding in 1979 (2008).  Putting in all 1 seeds your bracket too safe and not too much fun. I mean, what’s to brag about if you got that Final Four right. Have some fun and earn some bragging rights. Take some lower seeds. On average, over the last 21 years, the total of the seeds in the Final Four has been around 12.1.  If you are 8 or below – too safe. Over 20 – you are playing without the net. Over 20 has only happened 4 times over the last 23 years (2000, 2006, 2011 and 2023).
 
Intersting trivia -  the one time all #1 seeds made the Final Four, 2008, the Final Four was held in San Antonio. This year’s Final Four venue? – San Antonio.
 
11. All that talk about bubble teams, forget it. Starting in February all the talk is about bubble teams. Now you can forget about them. Those teams were bubble teams for a reason, they couldn’t win consistently. Bubble teams from major conferences are bubble teams because their flawed. Not so much though with teams from mid majors. They can be dangerous.

12. Advance at least one First Four Winner to the Round of 32. Every year except one since the First Four started in 2011 at least one of the First Four teams has advanced to the Round of 32. Last year it was Colorado advancing.  

PictureNo team has won the national championship after getting bounced in their conference tourney - like A&M
13. Conference tournaments kinda matter. In the last 26 years, 12 national champions won their conference tournament including UConn last year. This years champs include Michigan (nope), St Johns, Memphis, Houston, Florida and Duke

14. Conversely, no team has lost its first conference tournament game and then won a national title. This year be cautious about Texas A&M.  
 
15. Along those same lines, since Arizona won it all in 1997, no team west of Texas has been crowned champs.

16. Lots of sometimes conflicting advice. But some trends emerge. Here’s what I’m looking at this year:

a. Starting with the Final Four – In the South – House rule – Michigan State takes the region. State won the Big Ten outright and is peaking at just the right time. Don’t worry about the loss in the Big Ten tourney. It actually could help State by not having to play on Sunday and getting a Friday first game.

PictureI'll take Kelvin Sampson and Houston in the West
​b. In the East – I’ll take Duke. Even with an injured Cooper Flagg, they dominated the ACC tournament.

c. In the West – I’ll take St Johns. Pitino just knows how to coach basketvall. He is the first and only head coach in men's basketball history to make the NCAA tournament with six different teams. His defense in number 1 in the KenPom ranking
 
d. In the Midwest – I’ll take Houston. Another legendary HC in Kelvin Sampson.
 ​
17.  That makes total seeds for the Final Four equal 6. I know it’s low but I’m not ready to take a flyer on some of the lower seeds to advance that far.   
​
18. For my First Four upset the winner of Xavier/Texas to take down Illinois. The Illini are too young and quirky. They have the talent to make the Final Four but the lights will be too bright.   

PictureOf course, I'm taking King Triton over the team from West Ypsilanti
19. For the 14 over 3 upset – I’ll take Troy over Kentucky. Just about every time the Sun Belt champ gets a No. 14 seed or better, it's a problem. James Madison was a 12-5 upset winner last year. UL Lafayette nearly beat Tennessee in 2023. Troy doesn't shoot well, but it generates a lot of steals. Kentucky is missing nearly all of its guards. 
 
20. For my 13 over 4 upset  - Repeat time. Yale was a 13-4 upset winner over Auburn last year. They do it again over Texas A&M. Yale's biggest bugaboo? Giving up triples. But Texas A&M's biggest bugaboo? Shooting. Both in three-point percentage and effective field-goal percentage, it ranks 317th in the nation. Yale has a better than plus-200 rebound margin for the year and can keep second and third chances to a relative minimum.

I'm also taking High Point over Purdue. 
High Point has won 14 in a row, the second-longest winning streak in college basketball. And the Boilers have a history of early exits. 
 
21. I’ll take two 12s over 5s. First, UC San Diego over Michigan in the South. This is more than just my heart talking, Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones is built to handle Michigan's Danny Wolf-Vlad Goldin combo. That and UCSD's year-to-date turnover margin of plus-246 and Michigan's mark of minus-93 should decide the outcome.
 
I’ll add in McNeese State over Clemson . McNeese State has lost one game since Dec. 14, trailed only 20 seconds in the Southland tournament and early in the season played Alabama to eight points and Mississippi State to three..

22. Any 1 or 2s going to lose in the round of 32? I’ll take a resurging UConn to take down Florida. It was either that or Creighton over a fading Auburn but Big Al said Go Huskies. 
 
Putting it all together – here is my 2025 March Madness Brackett

Picture
Lots of upsets early. That would be a fun tournament
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Super Bowl LIX

2/9/2025

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PictureControversial calls just always seem to go to the Chiefs
​The Super Bowl heads to the Big Easy in what should be a close exciting game. Now, Bills fans and just about every other fan base figure the fix is in. The Eagles will be playing against the refs, backed by Roger Goodell, Swifties, Elon Musk, Canada, Mexico, Big Pharma, the man behind the grassy knoll, even the aliens who built the pyramids. The latest in the trilateral commission’s conspiracies to control your life.

Just chill on the conspiracy angle OK. Just like about everyone else, I’m tired of the whole circus that follows the Chiefs, just like I was tired of the Patriots domination.

But maybe, Patrick Mahomes just knows how to win when it matters and Andy Reid is a better head coach than your head coach.  And I hate to say it, maybe Tom Brady is the GOAT (until Mahomes takes the title from him).

So, forget about your favorite conspiracy, just sit back, grab some wings and chips, pour your favorite adult beverage and watch, what should be a great game.
​
What does history tell us about the game?

PictureSuper Bowl X - a great Super Bowl
Andy Reid vs. Nick Sirianni will be the 5th head coach rematch in a Super Bowl all-time. The head coach who won the first meeting straight up is 4-0 in the rematch:
​

Chuck Noll over Tom Landry  - Super Bowl X (1975) and  XIII (1979)
Jimmy Johnson over Marv Levy – Super Bowls XXVII (1993) and XXVIII (1994)
Tom Coughlin over Bill Belichick – Super Bowls XLII (2008) and XLVI (2012)
Andy Reid over Kyle Shanahan – Super Bowls LIV (2020) and LVIII (2024)

There is a week off between the Conference Championships and the Super Bowl to give the NFL all that more time to hype the game. Andy Reid is the master with a week off. His teams are 34-7 SU, including 29-3 SU with Mahomes and Donovan McNabb as his quarterbacks.

His only losses were his two Super Bowl losses to the Bucs and Patriots and perhaps ominously, against the Eagles last season.

PictureThe eagles put double nickels on Washington. That does not bode well
But does the bye week help the Eagles? The Chiefs, as the #1 seed, in the AFC had a bye week entering the playoffs. The Eagles, as the #3 seed in the NFC,  didn’t have a bye week, playing in the Wild Card round. In the Super Bowl era, teams that didn’t play in the Wild Card game (Chiefs)– facing a team who did play in the Wild Card game (Eagles) are 4-12 SU and 2-13-1 ATS.
​

Eagles scored 55 points in the Conference Championship, the most in that round in NFL history. Only three teams have scored more than 45 pts in the Conference Championship:
1990-91 Bills — who lost the Super Bowl
2015-16 Panthers — who lost the Super Bowl.
2024-25 Eagles - ?

Further, teams that scored 40+ points in the Conference Championship are 3-7 SU in the Super Bowl

PictureRon Torbert does not call a lot of penalties but the Chiefs do well when he is the ref
I’ll be watching the game with the local trivia gang so I’ll sprinkle in some Super Bowl Trivia. It’s also for you Jeopardy Jeff for the next time we get together.

​Trivia Question #1 - Who was the first singer to perform at the Super Bowl? Answers below


Eagle DC Vic Fangio struggles against Mahomes. His defenses have faced Patrick Mahomes eight times — six with the Broncos, and twice with the Dolphins. They are 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS vs. Chiefs. Mahomes has 10 TD, 2 INT, 64% comp. pct.

If there was a ref conspiracy, the NFL picked an unlikely ref to execute it. Ron Torbert will be the Super Bowl referee this year. This will be Torbert’s second Super Bowl. He was the main official for Rams-Bengals back in 2021-22. The game only had six combined penalties between both teams, the lowest combined number in a Super Bowl since 1999.
​

That said, he does lean toward the favorite (Chiefs), favorites with Torbert are 90-71-2 ATS (56%) in the last decade, the best of any official.

PictureMahomes loves playing in a dome
Playing in the SuperDome advantages the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes has played 15 games inside of a dome, he is 14-1 SU. 
​

Trivia question 2 - Which College Has Produced the Most Super Bowl Quarterbacks?
​

So who to take? Vegas is expecting a close game. This will the 17th straight Super Bowl with the favorite laying less than seven points, extending the longest string in Super Bowl history.

The Eagles have the best team but the Chiefs have the best player. It really is a toss up and should be a tight, exiting game. So rather than predict the winner, I’ll go with an interesting way to invest.

PictureWhich Super Bowl was this?
​That is to play both sides with:

Chiefs to win by 1-6 points +245 and Eagles to win by 1-6 points +255 – As long as the winning margin is less than a TD (which means OT as well, since there is no extra point) you win. You can root for an exciting game and not worry about who wins!
​

In addition I’ll go with

Chiefs to win from behind +150 and Eagles to win from behind +175 – You don’t even have to wait for the end of the game. If there is a lead change at any point, you win!

From there I’m going with player props
​

But first Trivia Question #3 - Who won the Super Bowl the year of the infamous "wardrobe malfunction?”

PictureI'm leaning heavily on Dallas Goedert tonight
I’m going heavy on Eagles TE Dallas Goedert. The Chiefs will have to focus on Saquon Barkley which opens to door for Goedert.

Dallas Goedert over 60 yards receiving +126 - In the six games that Goedert, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith all played this season, Goedert had the second-highest target rate behind Brown, becoming the focal point of this Eagles passing offense. In three playoff games this year, Goedert has 15 catches on 18 targets for 188 yards.

The Chiefs this season were one of the worst defenses against opposing tight ends. They finished tied for the second-most receptions allowed (6.2per game) and allowed the most yards (70 per game). When these two teams met in the Super Bowl two years ago, Goedert finished with six catches for 60 yards.
​

I’ll add to that with:

Dallas Goedert over 5 receptions +155 - With 4 receptions in the Super Bowl, Goedert would join this list of players with 4+ receptions in 10 straight playoff games since the merger: Kelce, Edelman, Welker, Tyreek, Julio Jones, Jerry Rice – only Travis Kelce has done it as a tight end.

And I’ll take a flyer on

Goedert to win MVP +12000 – Imagine a tight defensive game where both teams struggle to score. Saquon is bottled up and the Eagles winning drive has Goedert moving the chains and scores the winning TD. Worth taking a 120/1 shot isn’t it?

PictureMahomes went to Perine to ice the game against the Bills
KC RB Samaje Perine over 7.5 receiving yards -105  - Perine has gone over this number in 9 of his last ten games. He finished with 1 catch for 17 yards in the AFC Championship game. Perine is a trusted pass catching, third-down back. When Mahomes had to ice the game against the Bills, he went to Perine who came through in the clutch.

Trivia Question #4 - Who Sang the Longest National Anthem at the Super Bowl?

DeVonta Smith Longest Reception Over 20.5 Yards -110  - This compliments the inability of the Chiefs to cover tight ends. Smith was a huge factor in the Eagles loss to KC in Super Bowl LVII catching 7 passes for 100 yards with the longest at 45 yards. In this year’s playoffs, Smith has one catch of 28 and one catch of 20, so he’s only gone over once in three games, but went over this in 10 of 13 regular season games.

PictureThere hasn't been a 120 yards rusher in the Super Bowl since 2003
Isiah Pacheco over 25 rushing yards -105 -  This is a buy-low play on Pacheco, who has gone under this number in three straight games. However, the bye week may be a big benefit to Pacheco who is still recovering from a knee injury suffered earlier this season. Pacheco finished with 15 carries for 76 yards in the Super Bowl two years ago against Philadelphia.

I’m going to pass on Saquon’s rushing yardage. In the NFC Championship game, he closed at 125 finishing with 118 yards going under. In the Super Bowl, his rushing line opened about 110.5 and is up to 115.5 in the market. How hard is it to get to say 120 rushing yards in the Super Bowl?

It hasn't been done since Michael Pittman in 2003. That was the only time since Terrell Davis did in 1998, the last RB to win Super Bowl MVP.

PictureI'll take Xavier Worthy for my Chiefs prop player
KC WR Xavier Worthy  6+ receptions -109 – The Eagles love to play a zone defense to limit explosive plays. The Chiefs will counter with dinking and dunking to Kelce and Worthy. Since Week 13, Xavier Worthy leads the Chiefs in receptions, receiving yards, routes runs, first-read targets, and yards after the catch.

​Worthy averaged 6.4 catches over his last five games with at least 32 yards after the catch in all five and an average of 46. In four of those five games, he had at least six catches, 75 rushing + receiving yards, and a TD.


I’ll add
​

Worthy any time TD scorer +155 - Excluding Week 18, Worthy has scored in four of his last five games. The only time he failed to score during that span was in the Divisional Round against Houston, when he came up inches short on a second-quarter reception.

PictureAnd Conner for my defensive prop bet
It’s not just all offensive prop bets. I’ll go with some defensive prop bets too.
​

KC Safety Chamarri Conner over 4.5 tackles and assists -152 - In the Chiefs two playoff games, Conner has played 74% and 77% of the snaps with five and nine combined tackles. With the Eagles likely emphasize the ground game, Conner’s ability to step up in run support should lead to some tackles. This also compliments the Eagles likely to focus on Dallas Goedert, Finally, Conner played 27 special teams snaps in the playoffs which might lead to a cheap tackle.

And I’ll take another flyer on
​

KC DB Jaylen Watson To Record an Interception +900 - The places on the field that Hurts most frequently throws an interception are thrown deep to his left and short to his right. That’s where Watson lines up at about 70% of his snaps.

PictureButker is a perfect 14-14 from 30-49 yards
And lets not forget Special Teams.

Total Field Goal Yardage over 116.5 -115 – I don’t see a track meet in this game where both teams are playing TD or bust. They will take the FG when given the chance. Both kickers struggle at long FGs but are money inside 50 yards Jake Elliott was 1-of-8 from 50+ this season, but he’s been excellent from 30-49, going 18-of-20 in the regular season including 5-for-5 in the postseason.

Harrison Butker is just 2-of-5 from 50+, but 14-of-14 from 30-49. Three FGs from 36+ yards and you have your win.

And a final Trivial Question #5 - What 3 words have been on every Super Bowl football
 

PictureCarol Channing was the 1st Super Bowl half time singer
​Trivia Question #1 answer - In 1970 during Super Bowl IV, Carol Channing became the first singer to perform at a Super Bowl Halftime Show

Trivia Question #2 answer - Cal has the most Super Bowl QBs at 4,  - Joe Kapp, Craig Morton, Aaron Rodgers and Jared Goff. Alabama, (Bart Starr, Joe Namath, Ken Stabler,) Notre Dame (Daryle Lamonica, Joe Theismann, Joe Montana), Purdue ((Len Dawson, Bob Griese, Drew Brees) and LSU (David Woodley, Stan Humphries, Joe Burrow) each have produced three.
​

Trivia Question #3 answer - The New England Patriots beat the Carolina Panthers 32-29 in Super Bowl XXXVIII on Feb 1 2004 in Houston Texas

Trivia Question #4 answer - Alicia Keys clocked in at 2 minutes 35 seconds during Super Bowl XLVII. The average length is about 1 minute and 50 seconds. The over on the John Baptiste for Super Bowl LIX is 120.5 seconds.
​

Trivia question #5 answer – Every Super Bowl football has had the words “Commissioner", "Wilson" and "Made in the USA"

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AFC Championship Game

1/26/2025

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PictureExpect a heavy dose of James Cook in the game
Buffalo +1.5 @ Kansas City  - Is this the year Buffalo finally gets over the hump and beats KC?  If not, will they ever? Buffalo and KC play about even during the regular season, but once the playoffs start, Buffalo crumbles like a table to the Buffalo Mafia.

Yeah, I’ll take Buffalo to finally beat Mahomes and the traveling circus. It starts with Josh Allen.  Allen is playing the best football of his career heading into the AFC Championship. He completed nearly 64 percent of his passes this year for 3,731 yards to go along with 28 touchdowns and just six interceptions. He has turned the ball over just eight times this season compared to 22 last year.

More importantly, the Bills have been dominant in the red zone. They are second in the NFL in red zone offense this season. They'll rely heavily on the ground game against the Chiefs, utilizing Allen and running backs James Cook, Ty Johnson, and Ray Davis. All four combined for over 140 yards rushing against a stingy Ravens' run defense. 

PictureIf the Bills focus on Kelce it frees up Worthy
The Chiefs' ground game, meanwhile, has gotten progressively worse this season and has become almost a non-factor. They had just 50 yards rushing against the Texans allowing over five yards per carry. And that was without having to worry about Stroud as a viable running threat.

The huge key to this game will be in the red zone and turnovers. The Bills have the second-best red zone offense in the NFL while the Chiefs finished just 24th in red zone offense. The Bills are #1 in the NFL in turnover margin. They won the turnover battle in the first meeting between these two teams. The Bills are on the cusp and they have to know it. They'll finally get over the hump on Sunday and head to the Super Bowl.

I’ll pass on the over under but will take some player props
​
James Cook any time TD +125 – Cook ahs scored a TD in 9 of his last 11 gams including 2 against Kansas City in week 11

Khalil Shakir over 60 yards receiving - 110 - The king of YAC and the deep ball will strike. He’s averaged 64 yards receiving in the playoffs and had 70 yards against KC in week 11. 

Xavier Worthy over 50 yards receiving -127 - The Bills blanketed Kelce in week 11 holding him to 2 catches for 8 yards. If the Bills focus on stopping Kelce it frees up Worthy who had 61 yards in that game. Worthy has gone over on the receiving yards prop 7 out of his last 8 games. ​

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2024 NFC Championship Game

1/26/2025

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PictureWashington opened it up with McLaurin in week 16 vs the Eagles.
​Washington +6 @ Philadelphia - The consensus is that the Commanders have had a nice run but will likely be taken care of by the Eagles. Yet, Philadelphia has been outgained in both of its playoff games and in four of its last five games. Last week against LA, the Eagles scored touchdowns on plays of 78, 62 and 44 yards.  Outside of those plays, they gained 166 yards on 58 plays for 2.9 yards per play. Could it be that Philly is living dangerously. Sure, you can expect impressive long touchdown runs from Saquon Barkley here and there, but that’s not a sustainable recipe for success.

When these teams first met back in week 11, the Eagles were able to contain the Commanders offense as OC Kliff Kingsbury didn’t move Terry McLaurin around too much (1 catch for 10 yds).

In the second matchup in week 16, Philadelphia was on its way to a blowout win before Hurts suffered a concussion. The defense, though, got torched by Jayden Daniels.  

PictureLA outgained Philly last week.
​In their 36-33 comeback victory, the Commanders converted 54% of third-down attempts and were 2-of-3 on fourth. Despite giving up over 200 rushing yards to the Eagles offense, the Washington offense actually ran for more first downs and converted key situations at a much higher rate than did the Eagles.

Last week against the Rams, The Eagles were out-gained 402-350 last week. The Philadelphia defense is very good, but it's not invincible.

Daniels has improved greatly since that first Eagles matchup and continues to trend up. He shouldn’t have to deal with the snow that the Rams did last week and will have a great opportunity to have a big game against an Eagles team that has a lot of question marks around it.

As an underdog, Daniels is 5-2-1 (71.4%) against the spread and has covered by 7.8 points per game. As a favorite of four or more points, Hurts is 15-20-2 (43%). Over the past two seasons, that record is just 6-12-1 for Hurts.
​
Road teams are 2-8 straight up this postseason, and both wins belong to Daniels.

Midnight is still not here for Cinderella. I’ll take Washington to cover.

PictureDon't outthink it - take Sqauon and the yards
I’ll stay away from the over under but I will make a few prop bets.
​
Jayden Daniels over 21.5 completions - Daniels has gone over this number in all eight of his last full games played. Against the Eagles he had 22 and 24 completions.  

The weather looks good for Sunday with no snow in the forecast unlike last week in Philadelphia. It’s also a bit of a hedge bet in that if Washington is trailing you can expect even more pass attempts.

Saquon Barkley over 127.5 yards rushing -  The O/U for Barkley’s rushing yards prop is the highest in history.  Although opposing defenses know the run is coming, that hasn't stopped Barkley from rushing for 2,005 yards in the regular season despite facing a light box on just 18.6% of attempts.

​The Rams knew the Eagles would rely on their ground game in wintry conditions last week and they still couldn't contain Barkley, who gashed them for 205 yards on 26 carries. Meanwhile, the Commanders were gashed on the ground in their Divisional Round game, surrendering 201 yards to Detroit.
​

The Commanders have struggled against the run all season, ranking 30th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (137.5) and 27th in defensive rush EPA. They are also dead-last in the league in average yards allowed before contact to running backs, and Barkley ranks first with 2.64 yards before contact.
​

Don’t outthink it. Go with Saquon to get his yards.

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2024 National Championship Game

1/20/2025

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PictureRiley Leonard can be a little erratic passing
​Ohio State -8.5 vs Ntre Dame and
Ohio State vs Notre Dame over 45.5
– Every analytic I look at says this should be a tight low scoring game so I’ve decided “screw it” I’ll take Ohio State to cover and the over.

Lets start with why Notre Dame should cover. It aligns with the game being the under. Ohio State owns the nation’s No. 1 scoring defense (12.2 ppg) — and Notre Dame ranks No. 2 (14.3 ppg) The Irish have arguably the best secondary in the country. They're loaded with NFL talent, and we saw what the Texas secondary did against these Buckeyes receivers last week. Jeremiah Smith was held to one catch for three yards. They held the Penn State WRs to zero catches – none nada.

The Buckeyes are more talented but are mis-coached by OC Chip Kelly and HC Ryan Day. Despite an uber talented receiving corps, the duo of dunces have relied  too much on a power running attack when they should be speeding up the tempo and spreading the ball around in space to their playmakers.

PictureRyan and Kelly are mismanaging the offense
These two met last year in Columbus in a tight 17-14. The Domers were not physically overwhelmed in that game, and the yardage totals (356-351 OSU) tell the story of a game that was every bit as close as the score indicated. The loss that day is just another source of fuel that head coach Marcus Freeman figures to utilize to motivate his team for Monday night. Keep in mind Notre Dame is 14-0-1 ATS in revenge games.

Notre Dame’s only chance to pull the upset is to muddy up the game. Also neither offense goes very fast in tempo, so if both teams rely on their ground games it should be low scoring which favors Notre Dame as well.

Therefore, I’ll go completely against everything I say and take Ohio State and the over.
​
I’ll rely on Notre Dame bragging about staying in man coverage which means plenty of opportunities for Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka plus running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins in one-on-one matchups. Ohio State likes to start out fast, If the Buckeyes build an early lead, they could run away with it in the second half. The Irish do not have a big-play offense that can erase big deficits. ND QB Riley Leonard can be an erratic passer relying on his feet to keep them in the game. Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles will be aggressive and on the attack.

PictureIt's Egbuka's last game in the Scarlet and Grey

​With this in mind I’ll make a couple of parlay bets too


Emeka Egbuka Over 57.5 Receiving Yards - In big games, they will feed him. He is about to play his last game in scarlet and gray and “Big Game Mek” will be the primary beneficiary of extra attention to Jeremiah Smith.
​
Aneyas Williams 41.5 Rush + Receiving Yards - Ohio State just surrendered 101 receiving yards to Texas’ backfield duo of Jaydon Blue and Quintrevion Wisner, and that wasn’t the first time Ohio State’s opponents used running backs to great effect in the passing game. Penn State (54 yards) and Oregon (37 yards) also took advantage of Ohio State’s linebackers in space.



PictureOhio States defense will set up plenty of Jeter FGs
ND K Mitch Jeter Over 5.5 Kicking Points - Playing indoors creates a more friendly environment for FG kicking and can stretch a kicker’s range. Jeter has been accurate in the playoffs, going 7-for-8 on FG attempts and 8-for-8 on extra points for 29 points. This includes a 100% hit rate from the 40-49 yard range. The Ohio State defense ranks #1 in Finishing Drives, which means Notre Dame may be settling for field goals after long drives. 
​
First Half Total under 22.5 – A little hedging here n the full game over. Ohio State has not allowed a touchdown in the first 25 minutes of any playoff game so far. The first half of Ohio State-Texas was pacing for an under, but TreVeyon Henderson turned a screen pass into a 75-yard touchdown, which is more of a fluky event. Meanwhile, Notre Dame’s three playoff games have all gone under the 1H total. 

Remember the 2025 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 15th at the Westgate SUperBook


​And don't forget your drink coupons​

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2024 NFL Dividional Round - Saturday Games

1/18/2025

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PictureJoe Mixon could be slowed by an ankle injury
Kansas City -9.5 vs Houston - The Chiefs and Texans clashed just a few weeks ago in week 16, with Kansas City winning 27-19 as 3.5-point home favorite. This Divisional Round spread seems like a massive leap from that line, these teams are in different spots in the postseason.

Houston had a full receiving corps for that first encounter with the Chiefs but are now down WR2 Tank Dell. Houston's offense will be even more reliant on RB Joe Mixon -if he plays. Mixon is listed as questionable because o an ankle injury. The Texans offense was already among the worst rated units entering the playoffs and faces a well-rested and prepped Kansas City defense.

Don’t let last week’s 32-12 domination over LA fool you into thinking there is life in the Houston offense. One of those touchdowns came on defense and four L.A. turnovers gave the Texans extra extra opportunities.

PictureXavier Worthy will have success with the underneath routes
The Chiefs should be better than the unit they were in Week 16 now that cornerback Jaylen Watson is back. He allows DC Steve Spagnuolo to play more man coverage while focusing on taking away Houston’s remaining receiving threat Nico Collins.  ​

Xavier Worthy 60+ yards receiving
 - Patrick Mahomes has been much more efficient since pivoting to the quick-passing game when Marquise Brown returned in Week 16. Defending slot wide receivers is an issue for the Texans. They’ve given up the highest TD rate to slot receivers, and have been struggling even more recently since losing safeties Jalen Pitre and Jimmie Ward.  
​
Xavier Worthy has stepped into the role held earlier in the season by Rashee Rice as the underneath target in space. In Worthy’s last three games, he has his three most targeted games of the season (11 at Cleveland – 6 catches, 11 vs. Houston – 7 catches, 9 at Pittsburgh – 8 catches). I’ll take Worthy over 60 yards at +125 ​

PictureDavid Montgomery is back today
Detroit -8.5 vs Washington – Total heart bet here with a little facts. The Lions shouldn’t have any trouble moving the ball on the Redskins. Of all the teams remaining in the playoffs, Washington has the worst run defense out of all of them.

​The Lions, of course, built their offense on pounding the ball with their talented running backs behind an elite offensive line. David Montgomery just back from injury along with Jahmyr Gibbs will easily trample Washington’s porous ground defense. 

This will open up very easy opportunities for Jared Goff. St. Brown has a very easy matchup in the slot this week, while LaPorta has a favorable situation as well, with the Redskins being mediocre versus tight ends.

PictureWhile Zach Ertz will get lots of looks
It happens once every year or two. A undeserving team makes it out of the first round of the playoffs and then gets curb stomped in Round 2. Think Tim Tebow beating the Steelers then got destroyed by the Patriots back in 2012. Or the Giants beating the Vikings last year only to get crushed by the Eagles.
They were fortunate to beat Tampa Bay last week – a Baker Mayfield fumble and a botched snap on the ensuing possession did in Tampa – and now they’re taking a huge step up in competition with a massive need for a week off.

It will be a shout out but the Lions will pull away in the second half

I’ll also put in a player prop bet

Jayden Daniels 60+ yards rushing +100 – The Lions know that they are exposed to scrambling QBs Due to their propensity to use man coverage, they are one of the worst teams when it comes to dealing with QBs that tuck and run. They also look to try and lock down.
​
That sets up a busy day for Washington veteran TE Zach Ertz in the Divisional Round. Ertz has been Daniels’ safety blanket in his first year. He finished the regular season second on the team with 91 targets, hauling 66 of those passes for an average of 3.9 receptions per game. ​

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2024 NFL Playoffs - Wild Card Sunday Part 2

1/12/2025

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PictureI'll pass on the side bet but will take Barkley on a receiving prop
Saquon Barkley over 10.5 yards receiving – The Packers and Eagles square of at 4:30 in a ket NFL playoff matchup. But I’m staying away from taking a side. Both QBs are going to play but both are coming off injuries that cause me concern.

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts entered concussion protocol during the Week 17 battle against the Redskins. It has to be worrying for Eagle fans that he failed to exit the protocol during the idle week.

GB QB Jordan Love Jordan Love banged his arm in the Week 18 game against the Bears and had to leave with some sort of injury. It didn’t look like he had feeling in his fingers, which would obviously be problematic with a game coming up on no rest.

Christian Watson was knocked out with an injury as well. We’ve seen over the past two seasons that the Packers aren’t the same without Watson, which makes sense because they have a bunch of No. 2 receivers who can’t take the top off the ball. 

I lean to Philly to cover the 4.5 spread but no quatloos
​
Instead I’ll make a prop bet on Saquon Barkley. Barkley isn’t used all that often as a receiver out of the backfield, but given that Jalen Hurts is coming off a concussion, I imagine the coaching staff will want to make things easier for him. Also, the Packers give up lots of production to receiving backs.  

PictureBucky Irving should have a great day too
​Tampa Bay -3.0 vs Washington – In week 1, Washington QB Jayden Daniels was 17-of-24 for 184 yards, and rushed for 88 yards and two touchdowns. But much of that came in garbage time. Tampa Bay won easily 37-20.

The Buccaneers, love to blitz defensively. Daniels hasn’t been as efficient against the blitz with a 45% success rate against the blitz compared to 52% when he’s not under pressure. It will be up to Daniels to win the game though as he won’t be able to lean on the running game. The Buccaneers have one of the best ground defenses in the NFL, so neither Brian Robinson Jr. nor Austin Ekeler will have much success finding running room. 

While the Redskins won’t be able to run the ball effectively, the Bucs will be able run at will against the Skins. Washington has one of the weakest run defenses of all the teams in the playoffs, Bucky Irving is drooling about this matchup. He has as been phenomenal since taking over as the primary back for Tampa Bay.

I’ll marry up the investment with a player prop

Bucky Irving over 100 yards rushing +130

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