Happy Super Bowl Day. It’s the final football game of what was a fantastic 2025 season.

It’s also 11 years since the biggest Super Bowl blunder of all time -  Russell Wilsons’ goal line pick by Malcolm Butler’s. Not sure what the over /under of the replay of that play will be today but I will take the over.

And while it is a rematch form long ago, I think it's nice to have some fresh faces on this stage after years of featuring teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers.

Seattle -4.5 vs New England – It’s tied for the largest spread since 2009 but I’ll lay the points. Mainly because I don’t trust New England. Not only did they play the easiest regular season schedule this century, they followed that up with a laughable path in the postseason with wins over a Chargers team with no offensive line, a severely banged up Texans offense, and then the Broncos starting Jarrett Stidham. It doesn't get much easier than that.

The Patriots' defense has led the way, but, again, the competition (and weather) certainly helped.

Seattle defense, however, is  that good. For the season (including the post season) the Seahawks allowed a total of 325 points of which the Rams scored 90. That means that they allowed an average of 12.4 PPG to teams not named the Rams. New England is not the Rams.

The weather helped but the Patriots have averaged just 18 points per game in the playoffs thus far, the lowest mark for a Super Bowl team since the 1979 Rams. The Patriot offense has looked very pedestrian and QB Drake Maye is putting the ball on the carpet way too often.

I’m not a fan of laying the -4.5 but Super Bowl winners have a history of covering — 50-7-2 against the spread (ATS), including 31-1 ATS when the spread is six points or less.

Seattle vs New England Under 45.5 – This is more about New England’s inability to score against Seattle more than anything else. That said, both teams rely on the run and will be unable to run. Both teams like to milk the clock as well.

The Seahawks just allowed Matthew Stafford to throw all over them, but they have the league’s No. 2 run defense and were able to generate the second-most pressure in the NFL this season. That’s not good for a young quarterback like Maye who has taken five sacks in every game and has been prone to fumbling.

Maye’s youth and inexperience has tended to show against elite defenses, with Seattle being the best he will face to date, which could lead to not only inefficiency, but a conservative game plan.

Darnold is due for a drive killing turnover as well. Darnold is currently on a 3-game streak without throwing an interception, the first time that has happened all year. Let’s just that he is due.
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So for on the season I’m 42-42 never being better or worse than +2 or -2 at any point. I’m going to have to have an odd number of bets to determine if I break even so I’m going to add several player prop bets. They add a lot of spice to the game too.  ​

New England TE Hunter Henry over 3.5 receptions – I’ll marry Maye’s dumping off to Henry with the number of receptions. HC McDaniels has also heavily utilized his tight ends in recent Super Bowls. Over his past five, his primary tight end has averaged 6.8 catches for 80 yards with over 11 targets per game. I expect Henry to be heavily involved and get a sizable target share based on the matchup.
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Seattle QB Sam Darnold over 2.5 rushing attempts - Here are Darnold’s rushing attempts over the past seven games: 3, 0, 6, 3, 3, 4, 3. He failed to reach three just once, and that was in the blowout win over the 49ers. Unless this is another blowout, Darnold should rush three or more times, and remember, a kneel-down counts as a rush

So gather up your friends and have a great party. We are! Have fun!

Denver +4.5 vs New England – All the talk coming into the game is about how Bo Nix is out and Jarret Stidham will get the start. The line moved from Denver as a 1.5 point favorite to a 4.5 dog. Is a 6 point move justified. It’s not like the Broncos are replacing John Elway. Nix threw 11 interceptions in the regular season and tossed a pick to a Buffalo defensive lineman in the third quarter last Saturday.

And HC Sean Peyton has had success putting in backup QBs. In 2019, Teddy Bridgewater started five games because of an injury to Drew Brees. In those five games, the Saints went 5-0, and Bridgewater’s numbers were - 1,384 yards, 9 TDs vs 2 picks and a 99.1 passer rating. He’ll have Stidham ready.

And we maybe looking at the wrong QB.  New England isn’t exactly rolling out Tom Brady today.

In two playoff games, Drake Maye has fumbled six times and has taken 10 sacks. The Patriots' offensive line has had trouble protecting Maye, who has been sacked on nearly 14% of his drop backs this postseason. That spells trouble for New England against a Denver team that had 68 sacks in the regular season, which tied for the fifth-most in NFL history.

Maye is also making his first career road playoff start, and Denver is just about the toughest place to do that.

The market has overreacted to losing Bo Nix and is overlooking Denver’s defense vs Drake Maye. I’ll take Denver and the points.

It’s the final act of a great play. Indiana has risen from the losingest college football team of all time to the cusp of a national championship. A run, two years In the making. The first year a shock to college football. The second year – sustained excellence and total domination.  Year one was not a fluke, rather a proof of concept.

How did they do it? Not by “owning the portal”, nor emptying the vault on NIL. Your four and five stars mean nothing to Cignetti. Rather, it’s fanatical attention to detail, working as a team, doing your job and a total belief that your goals are achievable.  

I don’t mean to dismiss Miami (FL). Cristobal has been dismissed far too often. He’s tough like the former OL he was at Miami. Miami has been stubbornly unbreakable in tight games   For two and a half years the Canes have not lost by more than a TD.

Cristobal has built a team using a tried and true method, recruiting at the highest levels and using NIL to nab a few missing pieces like Carson Beck
But he is about to run into juggernaut, a unified team that eliminates mistakes while slowly strangling any hope of you winning.

So for the last picks of the 2025 College Football season I’ll go with:

Talent-wise, the Miami starting 22 is probably better than Indiana's starting 22. But the Hoosiers are a senior led team that doesn’t make mistakes. They do all of the little things right and avoid all of the self-inflicted wounds (penalties, turnovers, etc.).   Indiana plays as disciplined as a service academy. Only Army (21.9) has fewer penalty yards per game this season than Indiana. That could spell trouble for a Miami team that has struggled with discipline ranking 85th with 57.1 penalty yards per contest.

Indiana has forced 19 takeaways in the last eight games and is +14 in turnover margin. 

Much has been made of Miami’s vaunted DL and its edge rushers Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor. Bain produced just one sack in the past two games against the blindside tackles of Ohio State and Ole Miss. Mesidor, meanwhile, has been a one-man Havoc crew, generating 19 pressures and three sacks in three playoff wins.

But Bain and Mesidor will face an Indiana offensive line that's top-20 in pass blocking. Blindside Hoosier OT Carter Smith hasn't allowed a sack all season, giving up just single pressure over the past five games.

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Indiana 1st half -4.5 vs Miami (FL) - The Indiana Hoosiers' formula this year: shock and awe. Thanks to a handful of Oregon turnovers, Indiana jumped out to a 35-7 halftime lead and never surrendered. The game before, against Bama, it was a 17-0 halftime jump. 

Indiana ranks as the top team in the "Middle 8," defined as the last four minutes of the second quarter and the first four minutes of the third quarter. Cignetti’s team has averaged a scoring differential of +5.3 at the end of the second quarter and +1.2 at the beginning of the third quarter.

And don’t forget, starting Cane CB Xavier Lucas will miss the first half of the game due to a targeting call in the semifinals. 

Mendoza rightfully gets the headlines with eight touchdown passes and only five incompletions combined in the two playoff games.

While I wait for the College Footbal Championship on Monday, I’ll start making some NFL bets. This weekend I’ll take two:
 
Buffalo ML @ Denver (+100) - Josh Allen was banged up last week but pulled out a great fourth quarter drive to win the game. With a week to recover he should be much healthier.

The Broncos have a great defense on paper but are a bit overrated. One area they will be exposed is against tight ends. Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Know should have great games.  

IN a game of quarterback Allen is much better than Denver’s Bo Nix. Nix struggled against the Raiders and the 22nd-ranked Chiefs defense. Now, he takes on the Bills, who are terrific against the pass. They have a strong pass rush and an excellent secondary to keep Nix’s receivers from doing too much damage.

The weakness of the Bills, of course, is the run defense. But if there’s one team remaining in the playoffs that can’t take advantage of that, it’s Denver. Since losing RB J.K. Dobbins to an injury in Week 10, Denver ranks 25th in rush EP. Backup RJ Harvey is churning out just 3.4 yards per carry. Harry is explosive, but dances behind the line of scrimmage too much. He can break a long gain, but takes far too many losses and minimal gains as a result.

This will be Bo Nix’s second career playoff start, and if it goes anything like the first, the Broncos are in trouble. Last year he lost to these same Bills 31-7. Denver may be better than last year but not that much better.

​New England -3.0 vs Houston - The Texans have a major problem that cannot be overstated here. The offense, despite the scoreboard reading 30, is a mess. Of those 30 points, 14 came on defensive scores.

CJ Stroud looked scared. He had five fumbles and a pick. This is a far tougher matchup for Stroud because the Patriots have excellent defensive backs to go along with a pass rush that made life extremely difficult for Justin Herbert last week. And now Stroud will without #1 WR Nico Collins. Add to that, Stroud struggles in outdoor conditions, with a significant drop in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating.

The Texans won with an elite defense. The Steelers couldn’t muster a single point in the second half of the Monday night game. But there are two things New England has that Pittsburgh lacked. The first is a quarterback who can move. Maye can beat any defense with his legs, while Aaron Rodgers is a statue.  

 Second, the Patriots have a better offensive line than the Steelers possess. Maye won’t be able to count on his rushing attack, the Texans are fourth against the run, but he could make good use out of his tight ends. The Texans are just above average against the position, so Maye should be able to connect with Henry and Austin Hooper.

I’ll take the more complete Patriots over Texan’s team that will struggle on offense.

I went 2-1 last week to bring the season record to 39-37

Indiana -3.0 vs Oregon – it’s the two first picks in this year’ NFL draft playing in the biggest games of their careers. When two high profile match up, it’s always a big deal. When two quarterbacks at the top of their game and are projected to be the first and second overall picks in the upcoming NFL Draft, anticipation increases twofold. Take two elite quarterbacks and square them off for a spot in the National Championship game? Fireworks.

Both of these teams are coming off defensive masterclasses in their quarterfinal wins. Oregon shutout Texas Tech 23-0 in the Orange Bowl. A few hours later, Indiana dominated Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl. Indiana ripped through Bama like it was some low-level MAC team fighting for an early December bowl slot. Take that SEC. Oregon beat the Red Raiders like it was a light scrimmage. NIL money can get you just so far.

No one can match Indiana's production on both sides of the ball, as it has the No. 2 scoring defense and No. 3 scoring offense, and no other FBS team ranks in the top five of both. The Hoosiers have allowed two touchdowns, total, over their last four games, and they've given up a rushing touchdown in just one of their last nine games.

​One area where Indiana will hold the edge is in the red zone. The Hoosier defense leads the nation in red zone touchdown rate allowed (26%). Oregon’s offense ranks 47th. 

Indiana isn't the type of team that hurts itself. Just one team in all of college football commits fewer penalty yards per game, while just two teams in the country commit fewer turnovers per game. 

Despite the Hoosiers entering the College Football Playoff Semifinal undefeated and led by a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, some still hesitate to call them the best team in the country. That skepticism comes from the logo on the helmet, not the product on the field. It’s just clear that Cignetti and his staff are fantastic when it comes to getting the players prepared, and nobody on this Hoosiers team is scared of the moment.  It’ll be close, but Mendoza & Co. get the job done.​

Miami (FL) -3.0 vs Mississippi - There are four teams left standing and three of them didn’t even play in their conference championship games. The trend of first round byes losing continues as seven of the eight have now lost.

This game was supposed to be a powerhouse showdown between Ohio State and Georgia -  teams that won three of the last four national titles. But Ole Miss upset Georgia behind a brilliant performance from QB Trinidad Chambliss who ran circles around the Georgia defense.  He looked and played like a combination of Fran Tarkenton, Johnny Manziel, and Michael Vick. Georgia didn't lay a glove on Chambliss failing to come up with any sacks and just three tackles for loss.

The thought of Miami reaching the national championship game after its questionable inclusion in the College Football Playoff should make Notre Dame fans and BYU fans livid. Entering the Cotton Bowl as 9.5-point underdogs,  the Canes notched the biggest point-spread upset in the 12-year history of the College Football Playoff.

They did it behind a defensive line was more physical and outplayed Ohio State’s offensive line. It got consistent pressure on OSU QB Julian Sayin, sacking him five times and shutting down the run game, limiting the BuckNuts to 45 total rushing yards. So far in the playoffs, Miami’s defense has only allowed 17 points.

The defense has had to do all the work because the offense has struggled. QB Carson Beck has only thrown for 241 yards against the Aggies and Buckeyes. The Canes have only scored three offensive touchdowns in two games and only have four drives with at least 50 yards of offense.

This game will come down to whether Miami’s defense can contain Chambliss. They should, as they harassed another elusive QB in Texas A&M's Marcel Reed in the first round, sacking him seven times. 

Miami will also have to make sure Beck doesn’t have one of his bonehead turnover games. He threw six interceptions in Miami's two losses, throwing just four in the other ten games. Miami's offense might not look outright good in this matchup, but it should look better than it has yet to in the Playoff. This is the worst defense it has faced thus far.

I’ll take the Canes defense to carry the day again and Beck playing just good enough to win.
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Miami (FL) vs Mississippi 1st half under 24.5 - I’ll also take the first half under. The Hurricanes have been ultra-careful in the first two playoff games, Miami has hit the 1st half under in 13 of their last 14 games 

I went 1-1 on Saturday to being the season total to 36-35.  Texas State let up a TD with 9 seconds left in the 1st half  for the loss - arrrgh

​The 2025 Bowl Season comes to an end today. All that will be left is the playoffs. 

Here's my final bowl picks:

Texas State -9.5 1st half vs Rice - Rice plays in a bowl due to thier APR Score and not anything that they’ve done on the field. The Owls went 5-7 and are far removed from a quality football team. This is the 12th year in a row that the Owls will end the season with a losing record.
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Texas State HC GL Kinne was a hot commodity in the Coaching Carousel but decided to stay in San Marcos as the Bobcats will be moving to the Pac 12 next year.

Both teams like to run the ball. Rice was 6th in rushing attempts while Texas State sits just outside the Top 25. Texas State does a far better job at it. The Bobcats average 5.11 Yards per attempt (20th) while Rice averaged 4.11 YPA (88th).

The run did open up the pass, as Texas State was one of only seven teams in the nation with a completion rate over 70%. QB Brad Jackson completed over 71% of his passes with an 18/7 TD/INT ratio. He is also the team’s second-leading rusher with 692 yards and the team in TDs with 16.

Rice will be playing without its starting QB Chase Jenkins who hit the transfer portal. The quarterback is the most important player in any offense, but that gets magnified in an option offense.

Kinne demands a level of buy-in from his roster. Just two players are expected to transfer, neither of whom started a game beyond Week 6.
The line has ballooned to Texas State -17.5 for the game. Rather than risk a back door cover against backups in the second half I’ll take Texas State with a full roster and better team to cover the 1st half spread of 9.5.

​Navy -7.5 vs Cincinnati – This will be your last chance to see Navy QB Blake Horvath. The senior signal caller led the Middies to consecutive 10-win seasons and won the Commander-in-Chief Trophy in back-to-back years. What made him so dynamic in this Navy offense is that he could actually throw the ball. On top of rushing for 1,147 yards and 15 touchdowns, Horvath also threw 1,472 yards and 10 more scores.

Cincinnati ended the season in a tailspin. The Bearcats lost four consecutive games to end the year failing to cover in all four. Defense was a real issue. The Bearcats allowed too many yards on first and second downs and then couldn't get off the field enough on third and fourth downs.

Against run-heavy teams, Cincinnati crumbled. Utah rushed for 267 yards, and BYU went for 265. 
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The season ending tailspin has led to a ton of opt outs. The Bearcats are also losing five  starers on defense including virtually everyone in the secondary. More devastating is the star QB Brendan Sorsby who hit the transfer portal and is about to get a big payday. Sorsby ended the season with 2,800 yards and 27 TDs.

It’s Navy, opt outs and transfers don’t happen. They will be at full strength. I’ll take a the Middies to run the ball down the throat of Cincinnati, that struggled against the run even at full strength, and missing its best player on offense.

I went 1-2 yesterday brining the overall record to 35-34

Happy New Year Everyone. The Doofus family had a great 2025 with a new addition and an engagement. Here's hoping 2026 is just as enjoyable. 

Of course, the New Year always starts out on a joyous note with Bowl games galore. This year, New Year's Day slate is cleared to have just Playoff Games starting with:

​Texas Tech ML vs Oregon (+100) – Texas Tech is in uncharted waters. They haven’t finished a season ranked in the Top 25 since 2009. This is their fourth straight bowl appearance under Joey McGuire, but those games have been the Liberty, Independence, and Texas Bowls. Not exactly a CFP-level bowl game. This is the first time since 1955 they have won a conference title (the defunct Border Conference) outright.

They did it exploiting the portal and NIL money. They didn’t look for an experienced HC when the Joey McGuire was hired. His reputation was as a recruiter. He was the associate head coach at Baylor under Matt Rhule and Dave Aranda, but also just a position coach. Give Texas Tech credit because in the transfer portal era, you need a closer as a head recruiter and that’s precisely what McGuire is.

And the formula has worked. They lost only one game this year and that was when they were missing their starting QB. The defense is elite. The Red Raiders were the only team in the nation to allow under 1,000 rushing yards. Not only that but they were the only team to allow under 900 rushing yards. Their 39 sacks is tied for sixth and their 31 takeaways lead the nation. They are a top-10 defense on third down. 

It’s strength-on-strength here, as Texas Tech’s No. 1 run defense  goes against Oregon’s No. 1 rushing offense. The Ducks average 5.9 yards per carry, second only to Utah on the season. But it was held to just 81 yards on the ground by Indiana.

Oregon has struggled with elite defenses. Against Indiana, Iowa and Wisconsin, the Ducks averaged just 143 passing yards per game in those three games. Indiana was able to stifle the Duck running game, pin their ears back and go after QB Dante Moore. He was sacked six times.
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I’ll take Texas Tech and their defense to win the game outright.

Texas Tech vs Oregon 1st half under 24.5 (-139) – Games have tended to go under during bowl season as teams are playing conservative and feeling each other out. Texas Tech is stingy in giving up points. They have allowed 20 points only twice this year (in a 26-22 loss to Arizona State and in a 43-20 win over Kansas State) but otherwise held its opponents to 10 or fewer six times, including in its last four games. That includes games against strong offenses like Utah (10 points) and BYU twice (seven each time). 

Tech has given up just 13 red-zone touchdowns all season, and Oregon's offense has struggled to convert scoring opportunities into points at times.

I also have slight concerns about Texas Tech's offensive also tends to struggle in the red zone failing to score a touchdown 32 times this year. They've also settled for 23 red-zone field goals this season, so I could see Oregon’s strong defensive front causing problems for Tech once the field is condensed.
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2025 goes out with a bang as the CFP playoffs getting back into gear and four other intriguing Bowl matchups, including:

Iowa +3.0 vs Vanderbilt – Vandy has the better record and the Heisman runner up QB but the Hawkeyes happen to match up very well against the Commodores. Both teams like to move the chains and drain the clock.  Vandy ranks 118th in plays run this season per game, while the Hawkeyes rank 130th in offensive snaps per contest.

The Hawkeyes rank in the top 20 yards allowed, forcing opponents into long drives that end in field goals. The Hawkeyes are extremely strong against the run concepts the Vandy offense likes to run. Vanderbilt loves to set up the explosive, but this is an Iowa defense ranked in the Top 10 in defending explosive plays. Everything Iowa does well on defense directly challenges what Vanderbilt needs to succeed.

Yes the Iowa offense is below average but Vandy’s defense has given up yards all season, ranking in the bottom quartile in many key metrics.

In a game that could come down to special teams, this is an are that Iowa has, and historically does, succeed.

I’ll take the points in what should be a game that comes down to the final minutes.
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Arizona State vs Duke over 47.5 - Michigan was hot for ASU HC Kenny Dillingham, but the was jerking them around to get a raise. It’s GRRRREAATT!

This is another bowl game with significant opt outs and injuries. Arizona State fielded a sound defense but that unit takes a hit without its top player, cornerback Keith Abney II. His absence will be felt against a great quarterback in Darian Mensah (3,646 passing yards, 30 touchdowns to 5 interceptions). The Sun Devils will also be without leading tackler Keyshaun Elliot, while third-leading tackler Myles Rowser continues to weigh his decision after declaring for the NFL Draft.

Duke scored 34 points per game, so the Blue Devils should find the end zone against a depleted defense. 

Dukes defense this year has made Swiss cheese look like a brick. Duke’s defense will be without arguably its two best players. Chandler Rivers is an NFL corner and has five more PBUs than any other player on the roster, whereas Vincent Anthony Jr. leads the team in sacks (7.5) and is second in pressures (31).

I’ll take the over as two depleted defenses keep the scoreboard spinning. 

Money Line Parlay, Texas over Michigan, Utah over Nebraska, Ohio State over Miami (FL) (+100) – Texas’s roster may have been devastated by opt outs but the good news is that  QB Arch Manning will play today.  He’s without second-leading receiver DeAndre Moore but does retain explosive threats in Ryan Wingo and Parker Livingstone.

That should be enough to outscore a Michigan offense that has struggled all year.

Utah’s Kyle Whittingham retired, then unretired, entered the portal to sign with Michigan. Not sure how that affects the Utes motivation but the running game is still too much for the Huskers. Utah ranks fifth in the FBS at 41.1 PPG. It has scored 33 or more points in eight of 12 games this year and 31 in two others. Nebraska closed the year by giving up 37 points to Penn State and 40 points to Nebraska.
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Miami’s QB Carson Beck can be mistake prone and is facing an elite defense in Ohio State. The Bucknuts tend to go to their outstanding receiver corp when the playoff start. Finally, I trust Ryan Day of Mario Cristobal when it comes to clutch coaching decisions. 

​I went 2-1 last night to bring the season record to 32-31. 

La Tech vs Coastal Carolina Under 49.5 – Coastal’s offense is in the 100’s in virtually every metric and especially poor with the pass. It’s a bad offense that is pretty one-dimensional. They lean on the run which is conducive to the under as it keeps the clock running.

The offense took a big hit when starting QB Samari Collier went down with a season ending injury and replaced by backup Tad Hanson. In the four games Collier started, Coastal averaged 42.3 points per game (3-0 in games he also finished). Under Hudson, the Chants were held under 14 points six times, including being shut out 38-0 by East Carolina and held to 13 points against FCS Charleston Southern, which went 5-7.

Coastal is also missing it’s two starting tackles who have opted out.

La Tech will also be starting a backup QB with Trey Kukuk starting just his third game of the season after an injury to the Bulldogs’ starter, Blake Baker.  Kukuk likes to run, averaging 6.2 yards per carry and finished the regular season as the team’s second-leading rusher and leader by yards per carry.

With both teams unable to pass and not very explosive, I’ll take the under.